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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

                            
000
FXUS62 KJAX 231450
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1050 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...CONTINUED HOT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY...

.UPDATE...

More stable conditions and drier air was over the local area this
morning compared to yesterday as a mean layer 1000-700 mb ridge
axis amplified across the central FL panhandle, bringing 
increased subsidence west-east today. Still expect isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening storms, focused across our northern
GA zones and along the Atlantic coast, but overall coverage and 
intensity will be less compared to yesterday afternoon and
evening.

As WNW steering flow near 15 kts this morning weakens to near 10 
kts into the afternoon, expect both the west and east coast sea 
breezes to develop and drift inland. Convective growth will be 
suppressed across much of inland NE FL and over our inland western
GA zones including the Suwannee River Valley under stronger 
subsidence due to the building ridge, but a few spotty showers 
will be possible through the early evening hours as the west coast
sea breeze drifts inland. NW flow will focus the best moisture and
forcing for aftn and evening tstorms across our northern GA zones
near the Altamaha River basin and along and near I-95 corridor 
extending down along the St. Johns River basin of NE FL.

The 12Z JAX raob indicated drier air with PWAT down to 1.58" 
actually below climo values for this time of year. Thus, trended
with less coverage for rainfall today. The mid levels were more
stable, as was the surface, with morning dew pts in the mid/upper
60s across parts of SE GA this morning compared to mid/upper 70s
yesterday morning. There was still about 26 kts of bulk 0-6 km
shear, which will focus across our eastern zones as ridging
strengthens in from the west. Main convective hazard will be 
wet downbursts and possibly small hail, but hail concern not as
large as yesterday as 500 mb temps have warmed about 2 deg since
yesterday and there is not large CAPE in the hail growth zone with
a prominent inversion around 550 mb this morning.

A bit hotter across all zones today with much more sunshine as 
highs warm into the mid 90s inland to low 90s coast. Drier air 
will mix down across the interior with dew pts in upper 60s to low
70s keeping heat index values just shy of advisory criteria (108 
deg or more). 

&&

.AVIATION...

Prevailing VFR with temporary restrictions due to TS most probable
this afternoon and evening. WNW winds will prevail, becoming SSE
at coastal terminals with sea breeze. 

&&

.MARINE...

Surface high pressure will extend across the southern Florida 
peninsula with fronts remaining north of the local waters through 
Monday. Westerly flow will back SSE near the coast with the east
coast sea breeze this afternoon, with winds 10 kts or less. Higher
gusts from tstorm outflows in the afternoon and evening. 

Rip Currents: Low risk. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  96  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10 
SSI  92  76  93  78 /  30  40  10  10 
JAX  96  74  97  76 /  30  20  10   0 
SGJ  92  74  93  75 /  20  20  10   0 
GNV  95  73  96  74 /  10  10   0   0 
OCF  94  73  94  73 /  20  10   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Enyedi/Peterson/Corless