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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

                            
000
FXUS62 KJAX 191335
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
935 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES... 

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE 
WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN...

.UPDATE...
Strong NE flow event ongoing as High pressure builds into the
Carolinas and nudges down the SE US coastline into GA/NE FL and
will continue windy NE Flow at 20-25G30-35 mph at the coastal 
areas through tonight with lesser winds as you move further
inland. This onshore flow will keep the coastal counties with
Highs in the lower 80s, with mid to upper 80s further inland. The
onshore flow will slowly moisten and expect shower activity over
the coastal waters to push inland into the I-95 corridor by this
afternoon and into the St Johns River Basin at times as well.
These showers will continue into tonight before shifting more
towards the SE GA coast from JAX northward by early Friday
Morning. Overall shower activity will be light to moderate, but
will contain brief heavy downpours at times along the NE FL
coastline by later today into tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
Despite the onshore flow, shower activity will remain limited at
TAF sites with mainly VFR conds and breezy NE winds, except for
possible MVFR CIGS at SGJ where better chances for shower activity
is expected along with wind gusts pushing closer to 30 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories will remain on track today and tonight with
NE winds at 20-25 knots with occasional gusts into the 30-35 knot
range at times. Seas 6-9 ft nearshore and 9-12 ft offshore at
times.

Rip Currents: Strong onshore flow will continue a high risk of rip
currents through the end of the week. Morning Surf/breaker reports
are already in the 4-6 ft range and expect increasing trend into
the 6-8 ft range along the NE FL coast by this afternoon. 

Coastal Flood: Strong onshore flow will continue elevated water
levels along the Atlc Coast during times of high tide through the
end of the week, about 1 foot above predicted levels, but minor
flooding not expected along the Atlc Beaches, but will see some
minor to possible moderate erosion from the High Surf at times.

Further inland across the St Johns River Basin, some "trapped"
tides will push high tide cycles closer to minor flood categories,
but so far have remained just below flood stage, but may push into
minor flood into portions of the middle St Johns River basin
around Palatka and other portions of Clay/St Johns/Putnam counties
along the St Johns River and the current Coastal Flood Statement
in effect may need to be upgraded to an advisory if these trends
continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  63  85  64 /   0   0  20  10 
SSI  80  72  82  72 /  40  40  30  20 
JAX  83  69  85  69 /  40  40  30  20 
SGJ  83  72  84  73 /  60  60  20  10 
GNV  85  67  87  67 /  10  10  20  10 
OCF  86  67  88  68 /  20  10  20  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal 
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters 
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL 
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler 
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to 
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina 
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. 
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Hess/Kennedy