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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

                            
000
FXUS62 KJAX 251327
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
927 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES OF 104 TO 108 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...
...LIMITED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE TODAY...

.UPDATE...
High pressure ridge location over the NE GOMEX will produce a HOT
west to northwest flow across NE FL/SE GA with widespread MAX
TEMPS into the upper 90s inland areas and with only a weak Atlc
Coast Sea Breeze expected this afternoon, even the beaches will
reach the middle 90s. These temps combined with dewpoints mixing
down in the mid/upper 60s SE GA and lower 70s NE FL will push heat
indices into the 104 to 108 range, just below Heat Advisory
criteria. Morning soundings and GOES imagery supporting PWATs
(Precipitable Water Amounts) around 1.50" and this will limit
afternoon and early evening convection. Expect widely scattered
storms to develop along the Gulf Coast Sea Breeze pushing into the
Suwannee River Valley of inland North Florida near the I-75/I-10 
intersection late this afternoon with some of this activity
tracking towards the East and Southeast across inland Northeast
Florida into the early evening hours before dissipating by
midnight. The weak Atlc Coast Sea breeze pushing inland may
trigger an isolated storm this afternoon, but overall Hi-Res
models support most activity developing well inland along the Gulf
Coast sea breeze front. Slightly above normal low temps will
continue tonight mainly in the mid/upper 70s except for lower 70s
over inland SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
Brief period of IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS with low stratus this
morning will dissipate by 14z. Otherwise becoming VFR and with
limited rainfall chances have kept just VCSH/VCTS in TAFs after
18z with chances lingering until around 00z or so before mainly
quiet VFR conds expected again tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to forecast as westerly flow at 10-15 knots with seas
2-4 ft on track this morning, with SE winds expected with sea
breeze this afternoon. Shift back to the offshore winds around 10
knots tonight with seas 1-3 ft.

Rip Currents: Low risk continues with surf/breakers of 1-2 ft or
less in the offshore flow this morning. Weak SE sea breeze
expected later today.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Another day of upper 90s (MaxT>=97) expected at JAX today which
will be the 14th day of upper 90s or hotter so far this year. This
ranks 2nd all-time just behind the 16 days in 1998. The average
number through June 24th is normally only 2 days of upper 90s.

Record Highs for June 25th...
JAX 99/2016...GNV 102/1950...AMG 100/1998...SSI 102/1950

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  71  97  72 /  10   0  10  10 
SSI  94  77  91  77 /  20  10   0  10 
JAX  98  73  96  74 /  20  20  10  10 
SGJ  95  75  91  74 /  40  20  10  10 
GNV  97  73  96  73 /  30  30  30  20 
OCF  97  73  96  72 /  30  30  30  30 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Hess/Bricker