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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

                            
000
FXUS62 KJAX 222015
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
415 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

.NEAR TERM (Through Tomorrow)...
Surface high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast continues to 
weaken and move eastward with winds continuing to subside. Light 
onshore flow continues through tomorrow. The dry airmass overhead 
keep the area rain free. There may be a slight chance of sprinkles
along the NE FL coast as some stratocumulus clouds move onshore 
but no measurable rain is anticipated. Lows tonight will be in the
60s inland and around 70s along the coast. Some patchy late 
night/early morning fog is possible over inland areas.

.SHORT TERM (Monday night-Wednesday)...
High pressure aloft is forced southward and settles over the 
Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico region as a weak cold
front sags southward, stalls and dissipates over central Georgia.
This will result in a shift to an offshore flow pattern advecting
in warmer temperatures into the region. High temperatures warm 
well above normal into the low to mid 90s as low temperatures warm
to near normal in the 60s. The generally drier airmass will limit
any weather impacts to some patchy late night/early morning fog 
over inland areas.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night-Saturday night)...
Generally quiet, dry conditions with well above normal temperatures
continue through the week. Upper high pressure begins to weaken 
as an upper low begins to move over Florida. Meanwhile, surface 
high pressure begins to rebuild off the coast of the Carolinas 
shifting the winds to an onshore flow by Saturday. This will begin
a slight cooling trend with some coastal showers for the weekend.
A key impact to monitor for this weekend will be the potential 
for coastal flooding due to the combination of peak king tides 
beginning this weekend and developing east-northeast flow. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period. East winds around 10
knots with higher gusts will prevail this afternoon, with winds
diminishing this evening for the inland TAF sites. Winds will then
diminish overnight for the coastal TAF sites. East northeast winds
5-10 knots will prevail on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas continue to subside as the high pressure to the north
weakens. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the NE FL 
offshore waters through tonight due to seas subsiding below small 
craft criteria by early tomorrow morning. Long period swells will 
persist through the week with combined seas in 3-5 foot range.

Rip Currents: Tonight, high risk for NE FL beaches and moderate
risk for SE GA beaches. Moderate risk for all waters on Monday as
winds decrease but swells linger.


&&

.CLIMATE...
The Max Temps expected into the lower to middle 90s from Tuesday to
Friday may challenge record daily high Max Temps for local climate
sites across NE FL/SE GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  90  64  94 /   0   0   0  10 
SSI  70  85  70  90 /   0   0   0   0 
JAX  66  87  67  93 /   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  70  84  68  88 /   0  10   0   0 
GNV  64  89  64  93 /   0   0   0   0 
OCF  65  90  64  93 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for Waters from 
     Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 
     NM.

&&

$$

Chaney/Hess/Corless