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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

FXUS62 KJAX 200043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
843 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.UPDATE...Shower activity will continue to decrease this evening 
across the area as upper trough shifts off the east coast tonight.
Hi-res models show a return of convection to ne Fl late tonight 
and Thursday morning as a moist sw flow continues from the Gulf of
Mexico. Stronger storms are possible over se Ga by late day on 
Thursday as vertical wind shear increases with the approach of an 
upper trough to the northwest.


.AVIATION...Scattered showers and isolated storms will affect GNV
and possibly SGJ through around 04z. Expect scattered showers and
storms to develop and affect mainly Fl TAF sites again Wednesday
morning after 10z as moist moderate sw flow continues. SSI may 
have storms during the late afternoon/evening as a shortwave 
trough aloft moves into Ga.


.MARINE...Tight pressure gradient between surface high over s Fl
and deepening low pressure over the Ohio Valley has increased our
sw flow. Advisory conditions offshore with Caution near shore will
continue overnight and Thursday morning. Scattered showers and 
storms expected to continue with higher coverage expected over the
Fl waters tonight and Thursday. 

Rip Currents: Low risk through Thursday with offshore winds.


AMG  74  93  75  95 /  20  40  30  20 
SSI  77  94  79  92 /  10  20  10  20 
JAX  74  93  77  95 /  30  20  10  30 
SGJ  75  93  76  92 /  30  30   0  30 
GNV  74  90  75  92 /  30  40  10  30 
OCF  74  89  74  91 /  40  30  10  20 


AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Waters from 
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 
     to 60 NM.