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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

                            
000
FXUS62 KJAX 201318
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
918 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...

...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN...

.UPDATE...
Onshore flow has shifted more from the East-Northeast this morning
and weakened slightly, but overall still enough low level moisture
to bring in widely scattered light showers and drizzle from the
Atlantic Ocean across mainly coastal sections of SE GA/NE FL.
Overall atmospheric moisture levels remain relatively dry with
Precipitable Water Amounts just over 1 inch, but morning JAX
sounding shows strong inversion below 700 mb which has trapped
most of this moisture below 10Kft which due to convergence along
the coast in the onshore flow is enough to help trigger these
pesky light showers and drizzle which will continue through the
day. Max Temps will range from the lower/middle 80s closer to the
coast and I-95 corridor to upper 80s well inland and generally
fairly close to normal/climo values. E-NE winds at the coast will
not be as strong as yesterday but still breezy at 15-20G25-30 mph
with lesser winds as you track inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conds in the strong E-NE flow today, a few slight
showers or drizzle at times with possible MVFR CIGS/VSBYS at
times, similar to GNV early this morning. E-NE winds increasing to
10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots at times and strongest along
the coastal TAF sites. As winds weaken tonight expect some slight
chances for lower MVFR CIGS developing in the 06-12z time frame
and may need to be added in future TAF packages.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong NE Flow around 20 knots with seas 7-11 ft will continue
today through Saturday before subsiding trend begins on Sunday.
Shower activity has diminished and expect limited rainfall through
tonight with some light showers/drizzle at times.

Rip Currents: High Risk of rips will continue along the coast due
to strong Northeast Flow combined with long period swells
impactingthe surf zone. Morning surf reports along the NE FL 
coastline range from the 4-6 ft to 6-8 ft range, so will keep the 
High Surf Advisory in place into Saturday with a subsiding trend 
starting on Sunday.

Coastal Flood: Northeast flow continues to "trap" water in the St
Johns River Basin with elevated/Action water levels during each
high tide cycle. Overall remaining just below minor flood stages
except for some possible minor flooding in the middle St Johns
River Basin in Putnam county along Dunns Creek. These conditions
will continue into the weekend before improving by the Sunday or
Monday time frame as onshore flow weakens. Will keep Coastal Flood
Statement in place for now to handle these water levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  64  88  62 /  10  10   0   0 
SSI  83  73  83  71 /  40  20  10  10 
JAX  85  69  85  69 /  30  20  10  10 
SGJ  84  73  84  71 /  30  20  20  10 
GNV  87  66  88  66 /  10  10  10   0 
OCF  88  66  89  66 /  10  10  10   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal 
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters 
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL 
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler 
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to 
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina 
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. 
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Hess/Kennedy