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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

                            
000
FXUS62 KJAX 250037
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
837 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

...MUGGY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING COASTAL SHOWERS SUN MORNING...

.UPDATE...

Strongest evening convection was focused west of the local area under
light NE steering flow with lingering stratiform fading across our
western zones. Spotty showers possible over the adjacent waters through
the night under weak convergent bands forming under onshore flow as
broad surface low across south FL begins to move east then track 
NE through Sunday. Surface high pressure nosing southward down the mid-
Atlantic region will edge a weak 'backdoor' cold front farther south
through the night, nearing the Altamaha River basin early Sun morning
toward sunrise. Convergence between the low offshore and the ridge
axis nosing southward will bring an increase in rain chances 
along the SE GA coast and adjacent waters early Sunday morning 
with increasing low level clouds. Cloud cover and shower activity
will funnel southward Sunday, with precip chances increasing
inland through the day with diurnal heating. 

Mild above normal temps tonight with low in the low/mid 70s 
inland to upper 70s/near 80 along the coast. 

.AVIATION...

Dry conditions this evening at the terminals under ENE winds 
falling below 10 kts along the coast to light and variable inland 
after sunset. Winds near the coast back more NNE through the night
as low pressure over south FL tracks NE offshore of the FL 
Atlantic coast and high pressure ridge axis strengthens southward 
over GA. Low stratus and a few coastal showers will approach SSI 
and edge down the coast Sunday morning with elevated confidence of
MVFR to potentially IFR conditions impacting SSI/CRG/JAX by 15Z 
Sun morning, then farther south toward SGJ through midday. Showers
and low stratus will edge inland with daytime heating through Sun
afternoon with increasing chances of showers or isolated tstorms 
approaching VQQ and GNV into the afternoon. SREF/NAM guidance 
trending toward low stratus/shallow ground fog near VQQ and GNV 
tonight where less cloud cover is expected and advertised MVFR due
to ground fog after 07z. 

.MARINE...

ENE winds 10 kts this evening will increase after midnight from 
north to south as a front approaches with winds increasing over 
the GA waters to 10-15 kts around daybreak with an increase in 
showers and isolated thunderstorm potential. Combined seas will 
trend 2-3 ft this evening, then increase to 2-4 ft over the outer 
waters after midnight. Separated out the GA waters in the forecast
where winds are expected to reach 15-20 kts Sunday (Small Craft 
Exercise Caution). 

Rip Currents: Moderate risk expected again Sunday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  88  71  88 /  50  70  30  60 
SSI  77  85  76  86 /  30  50  40  40 
JAX  75  87  75  89 /  10  50  30  50 
SGJ  77  87  75  89 /  10  50  40  50 
GNV  75  91  73  90 /   0  50  40  70 
OCF  74  92  73  91 /  10  50  40  70 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Enyedi/McGinnis/Bricker