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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

FXUS62 KJAX 192040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
440 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Tomorrow morning/...

Widespread showers and storms moving westward across the region 
will scatter out later on tonight, with the strongest storm cells
having already pushed off over the Atlantic with the passage of
the shortwave trough. Storm developments are expected to become 
less widespread this evening before scattering out for most areas 
later tonight, isolated convection lingering in the vicinities of 
Marion and Alachua counties into the early AM hours. Southwesterly
winds are expected to start picking up in speed after sunrise 
with isolated early morning convection developing in the areas 
near the Suwannee river basin. Overnight low temperatures are 
expected to be in the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and 
reaching into the upper mid 70s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM /Thursday and Friday/...

West and southwesterly flow continues on through to the end of the
week with drier air pressing in over the area following in behind
the passage of the shortwave. Precipitable water levels of 1.5
inches or lower are expected with this flow, leading to reduced
amounts of convection on Thursday when compared with the previous
weather day. However, Thursday's isolated and scattered storms may
have a chance of developing strong or severe winds with the
tightening pressure gradient resulting in an increased likelihood
for speed shear over southeast Georgia. While ridging will begin
to settle in over the region on Friday, a frontal remnant will
stall slightly over southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. This
area of increased moisture and instability will interact with
shortwave troughing pressing across towards the west, resulting in
showers and storms moving through the region into the late night
hours. High temperatures are expected to range mostly between the
lower and mid 90s, with temperatures along the coastline being
similar to inland areas due to the eastern sea breeze being halted
by westerly flow. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in
the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s and 
lower 80s along the coast.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...

High pressure ridging will establish itself from out of the west
late Saturday, however this stability will not extend itself
completely over the southeast US with different models showing
variable amounts of influence from the high pressure area. During
this span PWAT values can range from below 1.5 inches to over 2
inches while varying with the high pressure and dry air, leading
to a weak gradient that will be susceptible to potential sea
breeze developments along the I-95 corridor in the afternoons, as
well as a weak trough pressing across over the weekend leading to
potentially strong showers and storms going into Sunday. Max temps
during the weekend and beginning of next week are expected to be
in the mid to upper 90s for inland areas and in the lower 90s
along the coastline. Apparent max temps are going to range between
100 and 110, with peak ApT occurring on Saturday. Overnight low
temperatures will range between the lower to mid 70s for inland 
areas and in the upper 70s and even low 80s for coastal locations.



Showers and storms will be fading through the evening hours as 
daytime heating ends and rain cooled air spreads out. Main areas 
of concern will be around SGJ and GNV through 00z with ocnl 
showers and storms there. Otherwise, some lingering showers and 
weakening storms will be near or just south of a GNV to SGJ line 
between 22z to about 06z. Some low clouds will be possible toward
early morning on Thursday mainly for the northeast FL terminals. 
A chance of thunderstorms on Thursday but chances are low enough 
to preclude inserting into TAFs at this time.



Thunderstorms and showers will continue to push across coastal and
offshore waters through the afternoon and into the evening, before
clearing later tonight. Winds have reached small craft advisory
levels so the existing SCA duration has been expanded into the
early afternoon and will continue on into the morning. The wind 
direction will persist out of the southwest through Thursday, with
speeds reaching up to small craft advisory levels for offshore 
waters. Storms will redevelop on Thursday, but are expected to be 
more scattered when compared with today.

Rip Currents: Low Risk in the offshore/SW flow with surf/breakers
in the 1-2 ft range.


AMG  89  74  93  75 /  60  20  40  30 
SSI  86  77  94  79 /  80  10  20  10 
JAX  87  74  93  77 /  80  30  20  10 
SGJ  87  75  93  76 /  80  30  30   0 
GNV  86  74  90  75 /  80  30  40  10 
OCF  85  74  89  74 /  80  40  30  10 


AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Waters from 
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 
     to 60 NM.