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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

                            
000
FXUS62 KJAX 161300
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
900 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...FOG CLEARS, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES TODAY...

.UPDATE...

Visibility issues are improving for many locations this morning as
locally dense fog lifts. Over the next few hours, the attention
shifts to the increasing chance for convection across the area. A
weak 850 mb trough on the western periphery of a larger ridge of 
high pressure, helps advect deeper moisture further north toward 
the FL/GA line. This morning's 12Z sounding still indicates a 
fairly strong capping inversion near 700 mb, but with better low 
level moisture, odds of breaking the cap are improved from 
yesterday. Dewpoint temperatures across the I-10 corridor have 
increased 4-5 degrees with many locations seeing Td of 73-75 
degrees, indicating the low levels have indeed moistened. Very 
weak southeasterly flow will allow both sea- breeze boundaries to 
work inland today, setting the stage for a textbook summer day. 
As showers form late this morning, mesoscale boundary collisions 
should gradually aid stronger updrafts leading to scattered 
convection by early afternoon. Afternoon thunderstorms slowly work
inland within weak steering flow. The best coverage will be 
located near the I-75/US-301 corridors late this afternoon as 
additional boundary collisions occur during peak heating. Mid- 
level lapse rates and dry air aloft lead to the potential for 
locally strong wind gusts associated with the most intense storms.
Convective activity subsides during the evening hours with 
decaying patches of stratiform rain and remnant cloud debris 
leading to a mostly cloudy overnight. 

Before convection has the chance to cool down local areas, 
temperatures warm quickly this morning due to mostly sunny 
conditions. Temperatures rise into the low to mid 90s for inland
areas with coastal areas staying in the upper 80s due to the sea-
breeze providing more maritime air. Low level air mass remains 
very moist overnight leading to area wide low temperatures in the 
low to mid 70s for Monday morning. 

&&

.AVIATION...

Morning fog has lifted for all TAF sites as weak easterly flow has
pushed the majority of the fog westward. During the late morning
hours, cumulus will begin to develop under sunny skies. With rich
low level moisture, scattered to broken ceilings of 2500-3000ft
are expected. Ceilings heights rise this afternoon with additional
heating. During the early afternoon, expecting scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop along inland moving sea-breeze
boundaries. Highest confidence for thunderstorm coverage for
VQQ/GNV as activity moves inland. TEMPO groups may be needed
elsewhere as the day unfolds. 

&&

.MARINE...

Seas are between 1-2 feet under light winds this morning. With a
ridge of high pressure to the east, expect light winds to continue
this morning before increasing near the coast as the east coast
sea-breeze moves inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible today, but the majority of the activity is expected to be
inland. 


Rip Currents: Low-end Moderate risk with light onshore winds.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  72  92  71 /  30  10  70  30 
SSI  88  79  86  75 /  20  10  40  40 
JAX  90  73  90  72 /  20  10  70  30 
SGJ  88  77  87  72 /  20  10  60  40 
GNV  91  72  89  70 /  60  30  70  40 
OCF  90  72  88  70 /  70  30  70  50 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

McGinnis/