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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

                            
000
FXUS62 KJAX 230647
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
247 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...HEAT REMAINS, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.Currently (1230 AM)...

A rather disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms have formed
along the outflow of decaying Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) 
moving into west-central Georgia. A few of these storms have been
strong, occurring over SE Georgia as the outflow continues to 
work southeastward across the area. Another area of storms has formed
over a line from JIA to JAX Beach where two outflow boundaries 
collided. Storms near JIA are pushing south resulting in wind 
gusts between 30-40 mph while an isolated storm along the coast 
recently produced a wind gust of 51 mph. Behind the outflow 
boundary, a broad area of stratiform rain has developed, providing
light to moderate rain for much of SE Georgia. The outflow 
boundary will likely push off the coast and all the way through 
southern portions of the area with isolated showers and thunderstorms
expected given the remaining instability. 

.NEAR TERM...Today and Tonight...

Another complicated day tomorrow with northwest flow still 
providing the threat for isolated severe thunderstorms. Even with 
showers and thunderstorms spread across the area overnight, 
instabilty recovers quickly today with MLCAPE still in the 
2500-3500 j/kg range. However, the ridge axis continues to move 
east pushing the best source for lift further east, limiting the 
chance for widespread thunderstorm coverage. Similar to Saturday,
expecting a few isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon with 
southeast storm motion. These storms will struggle to grow due to 
increasing amounts of dry air moving into the mid- levels. The 
best chance for a severe storm will be along the Atlantic coast, 
closer to the 850 mb trough and within the best moisture during 
the late afternoon. If a complex of storms does form to the north 
of the area, northwest flow should keep it off the coast. The 
western periphery of any MCS that develops could play a role on 
the Atlantic coast tomorrow, once again pointing to this location 
being the most favorable. Otherwise, the highest threat will be
over the Atlantic waters. 

.SHORT TERM...Monday and Tuesday...

Upper level and mid level ridge axis finally push east of the
area, allowing for much drier mid-level air to move in from the
west. This greatly reduces the coverage of precipitation,
especially on Monday. Moisture improves slightly on Tuesday and a
mid-level vorticity maxima moves through central Georgia aiding  
broad- scale lift. Scattered coverage is expected area wide 
Tuesday afternoon.

Above average temperatures continue into the short term with mid
to upper 90s expected area wide. Dewpoint values, while slightly 
lower, still create uncomfortable heat indices between 102-104 
degrees during the late morning before mixing occurs. 

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

Synoptically, the long-term period remains fairly stagnant as much
of the stronger jet stream is further north. Along the Gulf Coast,
weak upper level trough splits two dominating ridges over the
western Atlantic and the southern Rockies. Moisture depth over 
the area has improved back to near normals for this time of year, 
promoting a favorable period of seasonal thunderstorms. Weak 
surface flow will allow for sea-breeze boundaries to move inland 
which will drive diurnally driven thunderstorms. Precipitation 
chances are highest Thursday-Sunday with moist southerly and 
southwesterly flow. High pressure to the west during on Wednesday 
supports the warmest temperatures during the long term period with
mid 90s area wide. High temperatures decrease a few degrees 
closer to climo through the remainder of the period. 

&&

.AVIATION...
 
Scattered showers/isolated TSRA will continue to weaken around 
far ne FL/se GA TAF sites for a few more hours...otherwise VFR 
conditions expected. Isolated TSRA may form after 18z around 
JAX/CRG/VQQ/SSI TAF sites, and have added afternoon VCTS to these 
sites.&&

&&

.MARINE...

Ridge axis continues to advance eastward with northwest flow
promoting thunderstorm development in the afternoon north of area
waters. These thunderstorms could bring a broad area of gusty
winds with an outflow boundary or mesoscale convective system
toward evening. Otherwise weak pressure gradients promote low seas
and weak winds over area waters. 


Rip Currents:Low risk of rip currents to end the weekend. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  97  75 /  30  10  10  10 
SSI  92  75  92  78 /  50  30  10   0 
JAX  96  73  96  75 /  50  30  10   0 
SGJ  93  73  92  75 /  40  30  20   0 
GNV  96  73  94  74 /  20  10  20  10 
OCF  95  72  93  74 /  20  10  20  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

McGinnis//Wolf