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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

                            
000
FXUS62 KJAX 171342
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
942 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.UPDATE...
Mostly clear skies over the forecast area at this time but abundant
cloud cover is just now infringing on the southeast part as deeper
moisture moves in from the south with a few showers now near 
Flagler Beach pushing north-northwest at 930 pm. PWAT imagery 
shows values of 2 inches or better over the extreme southeast 
parts as this moisture lifts northward. This area is associated 
with a west-east mid level shortwave trough over central FL moving
northward around the wern Atlantic ridge. Mid level ridge still 
over southeast GA this morning. 

Mean flow from sfc to about 450 mb is southerly (about 165 deg at
12 kt) per JAX sounding with weak westerly flow about 15 kt above
that. Sounding shows PWAT of 1.85 inches, which combined with 
near normal mid level temps and lapse rates will result in 
generally scattered showers and storms later today. Best chances 
will be over inland northeast FL closer to the forcing of the mid 
level trough and better moisture where we will retain the likely 
POPs (about 60 percent) and then around the 30-50 percent range 
over southeast GA where main forcing will be from east coast sea 
breeze and outflow boundaries. Sounding does not show particularly
favorable pulse severe wx but given that temps will quickly rise 
today and that models suggest some enhanced downdraft CAPE of 
about 600-900 J/kg, we can't rule out an isolated severe storm 
over inland zones during peak instability (about 2pm- 6pm). 
Overall little changes forecast with minor adjustments to push 
back timing a bit and tweak temps. We expected isolated to 
scattered showers and storms this evening, with rest of the 
tonight seeing some weak convection over the coastal waters as 
best forcing from the mid level trough and moisture stay just 
offshore, lifting north-northeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
We expected to see scattered to broken cumulus develop within the
next hour or two with brief MVFR cigs possible. A good chance of
showers and storms around the northeast FL terminals today with 
much lower chance at SSI. Tempo Groups were used for peak times 
for convection. Amendments will likely be needed to refine timing 
as radar trends become more evident. Gusty winds expected in 
showers and storms, with MVFR to IFR visibilities are expected 
with convection. The Atlantic sea breeze will push inland early 
this afternoon, with surface winds becoming southeasterly and 
sustained speeds increasing to 10-15 knots towards 16Z at SGJ and 
then after 17Z at the Duval County terminals and SSI.

&&

.Marine...

Southeast to south winds near 10-15 kt at this time with seas
of around 2-4 ft. Winds are expected to kick up a bit this aftn 
which will prompt SCEC headline for the offshore waters for winds
of 15-20 kt and seas building upwards of near 3-5 ft tonight.

Rip Currents: Southeast winds and rougher surf with the wind
increase will create low end moderate risk of rip currents today. 
Prevailing low risk looks likely for Tuesday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  71  91  72 /  50  30  70  30 
SSI  87  77  86  75 /  10  30  60  30 
JAX  89  72  91  73 /  40  10  70  30 
SGJ  87  75  88  73 /  30  20  70  30 
GNV  89  70  89  72 /  60  40  70  20 
OCF  88  72  88  72 /  60  40  70  30 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shashy/Cordero