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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

FXUS62 KJAX 200050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
845 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

Dry air and subsidence aloft resulted in very low chances of 
convection again this afternoon and early evening. A few weak 
showers developed along the east coast sea breeze, where moisture 
was pooling along the boundary, early in the aftn but weakened 
before producing any lightning and additional convection toward the 
inland areas. West coast and sea coast sea breezes now pushing well 
inland with airmass too dry to produce any deep convection. Overall, 
mostly clear tonight except for a few clouds clouds inland, and 
along the coast where low level convergence may produce areas of 
partly cloudy skies after about 4 AM. A few showers will be possible 
overnight over portions of the coastal waters in weak convergence 
lines/some enhanced moisture offshore, which could brush the beaches 
around sunrise. Lows tonight not as cool as last night but 60s are 
expected inland and closer to 70 near the coast. Some patchy fog 
possible as west coast sea breeze advected low level moisture into 
the Suwannee Valley.

Forecast on Monday on track, with continuation of hot temps again, 
about 2-4 deg above normal, with silent (10%) POPs in the forecast. 
Temps will only continue to trend warmer rest of the week as ridge 
builds aloft. 


Prevailing VFR expected through Monday. A few low clouds possible 
through Monday for coastal TAFs, and while MVFR is possible, the 
chances are too slim to include any tempo group. South to southeast 
winds will diminish overnight. East to southeast winds again on 
Monday by the late morning and aftn with highest winds for coastal 
TAFs from east coast sea breeze near 8-12G18kt. 


South to southeast winds near 10-15 kt expected overnight with seas 
around 2-4 ft. Current forecast on track with little change.

Rip Currents: A low to low-end moderate risk due to predominate 
southeast winds and small long period swells through Monday. 


AMG  65  92  68  96 /  10  10   0  10 
SSI  73  83  72  89 /  10  10   0  10 
JAX  67  89  69  94 /   0  10   0  10 
SGJ  72  85  69  89 /  10  10   0  10 
GNV  64  91  67  94 /  10  10  10  10 
OCF  65  91  67  94 /  10  10  10  10