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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jacksonville, FL (JAX)

FXUS62 KJAX 220054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
854 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.UPDATE...It was another active day particularly across
north central Florida with scattered to numerous thunderstorms 
resulting in localized 35 to 50 mph wind gusts...some downed 
trees across parts of northeast Florida, particularly across 
southeast and south central Marion County. Seabreeze convection 
initiated over Northeast Florida has moved into interior SE GA. 
This line continues to move northward toward the Altamaha River 
Basin where there is still plenty of instability with CAPES still 
in 1500-2000 J/kg where daytime heating is slower to fade with 
area not worked over by previous convection. This activity will 
wane considerably in a hour. Across north central and northeast 
Florida, interior remnant stratiform rainfall will continue to 
decrease rapidly in areal coverage over the next hour. Expect 
activity over the west coast of Florida to after daybreak with a 
few cells encroaching the Suwannee Valley from the Big Bend region
during the late morning hours Monday. While east coast sea breeze
will initiate widely scattered showers and isolated showers near 
the coast by late morning or early afternoon. 


.AVIATION...Convection has ceased for area terminals this mid 
evening, with skies slowly clearing after midnight making for VFR 
conditions with variable and light winds. Monday anticipated
widely scattered to scattered TSRA with localized MVFR/IFR 
conditions and gusty winds with stronger storms...AFT 18-20Z. 



Winds/seas no more than 15 knots/3 feet...except locally higher 
in and near thunderstorms. A high pressure ridge axis across 
central FL and westward over the Gulf sinks down into far south FL
by Tue and resides there through the week. A merging seabreeze 
flow pattern Monday gives way to prevailing southwest sea breeze 
pattern Tuesday through the end of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for NE Florida beaches Monday.


AMG  73  93  74  92 /  40  30  20  50 
SSI  77  90  77  91 /   0  20  10  40 
JAX  75  93  75  93 /  10  30  20  40 
SGJ  74  90  74  91 /   0  30  20  40 
GNV  73  92  73  91 /  40  30  20  30 
OCF  72  92  73  91 /  60  30  20  40