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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jackson, Mississippi (JAN)

FXUS64 KJAN 250221

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
921 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Updated for evening discussion.


A few left over showers are still moving through our north central
region this evening that is associated with surface low to our
northeast. The latest HRRR model run shows rain dissipated by the
early morning hours and dry and clear sky conditions will 
prevail come sunrise. POPs were cleaned up to reflect those few 
rain bands to our north, otherwise no changes were necessary with 
the latest forecast update.  /12/

Prior discussion below: 

Tonight through Thursday...

A deep cold core closed mid/upper-level low is progged to move from 
the middle Mississippi River Valley to Ohio by Thursday morning with 
the associated surface low also moving off to our northeast into the 
Great Lakes region. With the loss of daytime heating and the low 
pulling away from the area any lingering shower activity should 
quickly dissipate late this afternoon and early evening after 
sunset. Cloud cover will also dissipate from west to east and winds 
should relax as the surface pressure gradient weakens. The light to 
calm winds combined with clearing skies and highly anomalous low 
500mb heights will set the stage for near record low temperatures 
tonight under nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions with a 
much cooler and drier airmass in place. Overnight low temps will 
range from the upper 40s to low 50s. For Thursday, temperatures 
will begin to rebound under sunny skies as flow becomes more zonal
and shortwave ridging builds into the western portions of the 
ArkLaMiss. While temperatures will return to the upper 70s and low
80s they will still be around 5-7 degrees below average for this 
time of year. /TW/

Thursday night through Wednesday...
As upper level ridging continues to pass through the middle of 
the country, a surface high will cross from west to east over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Dry and more seasonal weather is 
expected over the ArkLaMiss on Friday and heading into the 
weekend. Once the surface high settles near the FL peninsula on 
Saturday, it will aid in blocking the next system from the north. 
The discrepancy in the timing of the models exists even greater 
today than that of yesterday. The GFS originates the low much 
further north near the Great Lakes and holds the front off to the 
north on Saturday and releases it southward into the ArkLaMiss on 
Sunday. The latest Euro shows the low developing in the Arkansas-
Red River basin and tracks it into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on 
Saturday. The front will slide through the CWA on Sunday and bring
showers and storms. There is plenty of instability and there are 
decent lapse rates with this system. The forcing just continues 
to be the question. Sunday will be the day with the best chances 
for rain/storms on this holiday weekend. The front will continue
its slow slide southward on Monday and will stall along the Gulf 
Coast for much of next week. /10/


00Z TAF discussion: 

VFR conditions will prevail tonight through Thursday. /EC/


Jackson       51  80  62  90 /   3   0   0   2 
Meridian      50  80  60  89 /  57   0   0   1 
Vicksburg     51  81  64  90 /   2   0   0   2 
Hattiesburg   50  82  61  89 /   2   0   0   1 
Natchez       50  82  64  89 /   1   0   0   1 
Greenville    52  80  65  89 /  32   0   0   4 
Greenwood     51  79  64  89 /  72   0   0   3