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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Jackson, Mississippi (JAN)

FXUS64 KJAN 212323 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
623 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Updated for 00Z aviation discussion


00Z TAF discussion: 
Vcty SHRAs were noted at GLH at 2315Z and a few SHRAs wl come in
vcty of GTR before dissipating by 01Z. VFR conds wl prevail at
most sites tonight. The exception wl be in the south where MVFR
vsbys wl be psbl 10Z-13Z. After 13Z VFR conds are expected to
prevail Fri until around 20Z when isold TSRA activity may come in
vcty of cntrl and s TAF sites. /22/



SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...

Latest RAP satellite imagery showed the area showed the region under 
an upper ridge which extended through the Lower Mississippi Valley 
as well as under a shear axis over the southern areas which extended 
from an upper trough over the eastern seaboard. Also a weak 
shortwave was pushing across the region from the east. This combined 
with some cooling aloft and some low level moisture had triggered 
isolated showers and thunderstorms across the south. With 6-7c lapse 
rates we may see a few strong storms with some gusty winds for the 
remainder of the afternoon. Expect the weak shortwave to exit the 
region by late tonight. The isolated showers should dissipate by 00z.
For later tonight expecting another round of patchy fog prior to 
dawn across the northwest delta and the south which will lift by 
14z. Another weak shortwave will push through on Friday. Return flow 
ahead of this feature will trigger isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon. Lapse rates look a little 
weaker as far as strong strong potential is concern. 

As far as temperatures are concern readings will continue to be 
above normal. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs will 
be in the lower 90s. Heat indices will range from the middle to 
upper 90s./17/

Friday night through mid week next week...

Not much change in the forecast is expected over the next several
days as temperatures in the region will remain above their late 
September averages under a humid airmass. The chances of diurnal 
thunderstorm activity will also be present each day during the 
period. There will only be slight changes in the upper level 
pattern over the weekend with the deep troughing over the western 
CONUS and ridging over the east. A broad, weak upper low will 
begin to develop underneath the ridge, becoming centered over the
northern Gulf Coast by Sunday. At the surface, the ArkLaMiss will
remain on the western periphery of a broad surface high that will
encompass the eastern half of the CONUS. Pwats will range between
1.3"- 1.9" through the period. Long term models suggest a front 
will finally sweep through region late next week bringing with it
organized chances of rain/storms and cooler temperatures in its 


Jackson       70  93  70  89 /   8  32  12  18 
Meridian      70  92  69  89 /  10  34  16  18 
Vicksburg     71  92  70  91 /   6  24   9  17 
Hattiesburg   69  92  69  89 /  12  33  18  21 
Natchez       71  92  69  89 /  12  31  13  18 
Greenville    70  93  70  91 /   3   9   4  17 
Greenwood     70  93  70  90 /   7  11   4  17