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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Central Illinois (ILX)

                            
000
FXUS63 KILX 232003
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
303 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

High pressure was the domainate weather feature 
on Monday, keeping skies mostly sunny. Temperatures
were cool, in the 70s across central and eastern 
Illinois. The dry weather will continue tonight 
and through the day on Tuesday. Winds are expected 
to shift back to the south on Tuesday, bringing 
warmer temperatures back, with highs in the upper 70s. 

The next weather system to affect the area will 
be a cold front, bringist a chance for showers and 
thunderstorms Tuesday night and into Wednesday. 
Highs Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s.
 
&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Afternoon surface mesoanalysis shows high pressure 
center over eastern MO, which will be drifting to 
the east overnight. Dew points this afternoon have 
dropped into the lower 50s and so with the low level 
drying, fog development expected to be limited. 
Clear skies overnight and into Tuesday. Winds to 
gradually shift to the south by Tuesday and bring 
a little warmer air into the area. Time for 
moisture in the lower levels to move back into 
the area will be short though, so the QPF expected 
with Wednesday system will not be very high. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Next frontal system to move toward area Tuesday 
night and into region Wednesday, bringing the 
chance for rain back. Models are a little different 
in the timing of the system, the EUR the slowest 
and GFS fastest.  The models continue trend of the 
fast moving upper level wave moving across the northern 
plains and into the Greal Lakes, with the best 
dynamic lift in that region. Timing of the return 
moisture is best into the OK, AR, OK region, with 
IL in the middle and therefore the lower QPF amounts 
associated with the trailing cold front that moves 
through Wednesday and Wed night. 

For Thursday, weak high pressure controls the area, 
but the front is progged to stall east-west just 
south of IL. The next upper wave then comes in 
early Friday, which should be a better chance of 
pcpn for the region, due to progged lift ahead of 
the approaching front. WPC QPF was collaborated as 
the starting point with few lowering modifications 
made to make POP forecast. QPF is therefore better 
with this system than the mid week one.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Cold front off to the southeast of area. Dew points dropping off
and so will be limited CU development today and so also fog
development overnight should also be very isolated. Only put
mention in CMI TAF as that area was last of the sites to clear
overnight. Northwest winds today will become light and variable
tonight with high pressure in the area. Winds will shift to south
southwest Tuesday morning as high moves off to the east. 


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Goetsch
SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Goetsch