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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wilmington, OH (ILN)

                            
000
FXUS61 KILN 161941
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
341 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and a dry airmass will build across the region
through the week with temperatures remaining above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The cold front has just about moved through the area. We are
still seeing a few spotty showers right along it in our far
southeast but these should be out of our area shortly. Weak low
level CAA in the wake of the cold front will persist through the
night. This may help some of the cu across the area this
afternoon linger into tonight. The NAM is fairly aggressive
compared to the GFS advecting in some low level moisture from 
the northeast overnight. In the CAA this could lead to some
stratus development late and will therefore allow for some 
increasing clouds from the northeast during the pre dawn hours. 
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Some possible clouds across the area Tuesday morning should
scatter out into a cu field as high pressure and a drier airmass
builds into the region. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low to
mid 80s with lows Tuesday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the start of the long term period, the strong shortwave energy 
currently over the Pacific Northwest will be ejecting northeast into 
Manitoba over the high amplitude ridge, whose axis is forecast to be 
centered over the central Great Lakes.  Meanwhile, a closed low will 
be coming onshore coastal Washington State.  East of the ridge, a 
persistent downstream trof will linger over New England.

The period begins in the local area with surface high pressure in 
place over New England, and dry easterly flow across the CWA. 
This surface high shifts to the south heading late into the work 
week and into the start of the weekend as low level flow swings 
around to the southeast and south. Under the strong mid level ridge, 
high temperatures will likely continue to run 10-12 degrees above 
seasonal normals for mid September.

As the Pacific Northwest closed low opens into a trof and slowly 
ejects eastward, the ridge shifts eastward and begins to flatten on 
Sunday and Monday as the trof slides across the Great Lakes. As 
heights lower, expect a cold front to drop southeast across Ohio 
late Sunday night into Monday, with clouds and precipitation 
persisting through the day Monday. This front will also lower the 
anomalously high maximum temperatures in place since the second week 
of September.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front has pushed south of the TAF sites this afternoon
with some scattered cu developing behind it. Weak low level CAA
will persist into tonight and this may help the cu linger a bit
longer into this evening before possibly beginning to 
dissipate. Meanwhile, in northeast low level flow, some low 
level moisture will advect down into our area overnight. The NAM
is hitting this harder than the GFS so there is some 
uncertainty, but will trend toward the previous forecast and 
bring some MVFR cigs in late tonight into Tuesday morning. These 
lower clouds should lift into a scattered cu field as we head 
into Tuesday afternoon. 

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Hogue
AVIATION...JGL