Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wilmington, OH (ILN)

                            
000
FXUS61 KILN 262013
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
413 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions with a chance for afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
remainder of the week. A cold front pushing through the area on
Sunday will bring a higher chance of precipitation, including
more organized storms. Only slightly lower temperatures will
move in for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Weak high pressure over the far southern/southeastern forecast
area, along with a lack of any upper forcing or instability,
should keep any shower and thunderstorm activity further north.
Across areas near/north of I-70, convergent boundary will serve
as the focus area for widely scattered convective development,
which has been quiet until just now, as thunderstorms now
developing further west in central Indiana, and now between KCMH
and KMFD. Coverage should be scattered to isolated. Latest CAMs
have the bulk of the convective activity further west, as
associated with the impressive MCV over SW Missouri, with
scattered to isolated activity diminishing overnight. 

With dewpoints remaining pretty high, clearing skies and nearly
calm winds overnight, have added patchy fog through much of the
south and east. Still plenty of standing water around the region
should also contribute to patchy/areas of fog. Muggy with lows
in the upper 60s


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A weak shortwave pushes through the region during the day on
Thursday, bringing renewed chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. This feature approaches the western forecast 
area prior to optimum instability at about 12z, with more 
favorable surface heating/instability after about 15z along and 
east of I-71. Daytime temperatures again in the upper 80s to 90 
at some locations. 


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 
The upper level pattern will be characterized by a strong ridge over 
the nations mid section with westerly flow around the periphery of 
this ridge from the Upper MS VLY into the Great Lakes at the end of 
the week. This will allow a quasi-stationary sfc front to lay out 
east-west across the Southern Great Lakes. In the warm and humid 
airmass a chance of mainly diurnally driven thunderstorms will 
exist, with the best chance across the north closer to the frontal 
boundary on Friday. Temperatures will be above normal with highs 
Friday in the upper 80s to 90.

Flow will become northwesterly across the Ohio Valley around the 
periphery of the ridge as an Eastern Canadian/New England low 
develops. Chances for thunderstorms will begin to increase Saturday 
with the best threat Sunday the aforementioned surface front 
dropping south into the region. Expect warm highs in the mid and 
upper 80s Saturday and generally in the mid 80s Sunday. 

Northwest flow with surface high pressure over the region Monday. 
Chances for pcpn are not zero but due to lack of any significant 
forcing will go with a dry forecast Monday. Temperatures look to be 
close to normal with highs in the lower and middle 80s Monday.  

Mid level ridge builds east into the Ohio Valley next Tuesday. Can 
not rule out isold diurnally driven storms especially across the 
north -- and thus have limited pops to slight chance. Temperatures 
will warm above normal with highs generally in the upper 80s.   

Model solutions showing shortwave energy moving from the Plains into 
the Great Lakes causing The mid level ridge to flatten. This will 
result in an increased chance for thunderstorms Wednesday.  
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR cumulus through 00-02z with weak convergence bringing the
chance for scattered to possibly broken cumulus at the northern
TAF sites of KDAY/KCMH/KLCK, though still VFR, through that 
time. KDAY has the best chance of VCTS, mainly in the 22-02z
timeframe. As cumulus clear overnight and winds become nearly
calm, sites more conducive to visibility restrictions may have
MVFR restrictions in the 08-12z period. Mainly KLUK/KILN, with
KLUK possible IFR in that timeframe. 


OUTLOOK...More widespread thunderstorms possible Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JDR