Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wilmington, OH (ILN)

                            
000
FXUS61 KILN 190239
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1039 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary draped across Ohio and Indiana will
continue to produce more showers and thunderstorms into this 
evening. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain and the 
flooding threat will continue. Activity will be on the decrease 
tonight before strengthening low pressure approaches the area 
late Wednesday and Thursday, bringing more showers and thunderstorms 
to the area. After a break on Friday, more active weather is 
expected over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Some showers continue, especially in central Ohio. Expect this
activity to diminish. But high resolution runs persist in
developing some more in southeast counties later tonight, so
kept chance PoPs going there. Skies will be partly cloudy. Still
potential for stratus to start developing towards daybreak.
Forecast lows look reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
We should continue to see a relative lull in convective coverage
Wednesday morning -- of course given the high vulnerability any
heavier shower could cause renewed high water issues. 

A noticeable increase in convection is then expected starting 
Wednesday afternoon as an upper trough approaches from the 
west. Environment will be the same characterized by high
moisture and some instability. Low level jet will allow promote
more shear, particularly during the evening and overnight hours.
So, expect high PoPs to continue into the night. 

Potential hazards will include both flash flooding and severe weather.
Given collaboration with neighboring offices, a continuation of
the the flash flood risk prompts an extension of the Flash Flood
Watch. For severe, the primary risk appears to be damaging wind
gusts, particularly later Wednesday and into the night given
better shear and potential for organized convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern will be present through most of the 
long term time frame. Thunderstorms are in the forecast every day 
except for during the day on Friday. With the repeated rounds of 
showers and thunderstorms, there will be the potential for 
additional flooding concerns.  Will continue to highlight this 
threat in the HWO.

There will be the potential for severe weather at the start of the 
long term on Thursday and then again over the weekend as well. Will 
continue to highlight the severe threat on Thursday in the HWO. Will 
hold off on the weekend systems until there is more confidence in 
the location of the severe weather potential.

High temperatures will increase from Thursday until Sunday and then 
be just slightly cooler on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR will persist through the early part of the period. Most 
indications are that an IFR deck will develop after 08z with 
some lower visibilities possible as well. At this point only 
have moderate confidence in this occurrence. clouds will lift to
MVFR during the morning and eventually become VFR by 18Z. There
may be some additional convection in the latter part of the 
period, but chance of affecting any particular terminal seemed 
low enough that far out in time to not include any mention in 
the TAFs at this point. 

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday, and 
again Friday night through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...