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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wilmington, OH (ILN)

                            
000
FXUS61 KILN 252348
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
748 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build east of the region tonight offering
mainly dry weather. A weak front will drop into the Great Lakes
Wednesday which could bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms
to parts of the region. A warmer and more humid airmass will 
develop into the Ohio Valley through the end of the week into the 
weekend. Can not rule out a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm 
each day with a better chance of storms Sunday as a back door 
front drops into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Westerly mid level flow with surface ridge axis shifting east
of the area this evening. Diurnally driven cumulus clouds will 
dissipate with loss of daytime heating - yielding mainly clear
skies early this evening. 

An embedded mid level shortwave will track from mid MS VLY
across the Great Lakes and dampen out/weaken. Weakening 35-40kt
westerly low level jet will offer weak low level convergence. 
Marginal elevated instability along with this weak forcing may 
lead to a shower or thunderstorm toward sunrise across the far
north. Have limited any mention of pcpn to slight chance. 

After dropping off this evening southwest winds increase 
slightly overnight. These winds combined with some increase in
clouds -- especially across the north late -- will keep
temperatures a little milder in the north and west tonight.
Expect lows from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 60s 
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weakening 35-40Kt westerly low level jet and marginal elevated
instability may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms across 
the far north that develop late tonight into Wednesday morning. 
  
Westerly mid level flow continue with a short wave passing 
thru the Great Lakes. This will allow an east-west oriented 
surface front to lay out north of ILN/s FA across the Southern 
Great Lakes. Diurnal heating will lead to moderate instability 
which may result in scattered storms in the afternoon, mainly 
across the northern counties. Have chance pops for this threat. 
Temperatures will be a little above normal with highs on 
Wednesday in the mid 80s. 

A few thunderstorms may linger across the far north into
Wednesday evening. Due to lack of good forcing -- have the area
go dry with the loss of heating. Expect mild lows Wednesday 
night in the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A summertime pattern will be in place for the long term period with 
high temperatures topping out around 90 Thursday through Saturday. A 
few pop-up thunderstorms will be possible during this time and 
generally peak in the late day due to the heating of the day. High 
pressure aloft will inhibit any organized development of storms. The 
best chance for this generally isolated thunderstorm activity will 
be across northern portions of the region.

On Sunday a frontal boundary will work down into the region allowing 
for slightly cooler conditions in the mid 80s. Additional 
thunderstorm chances will be more prevalent as energy will be able 
to dive southeastward on northwest flow aloft. Monday will see 
continued high temperatures in the 80s with isolated diurnally 
driven thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Diurnal cu continues to dissipate this evening. Some scattered
mid and high clouds will affect the tafs for the evening hours. 

MCS in lower Michigan and NW IN is forecast to stay north of the
area. Some broken mid clouds associated with the MCS could work
into the nrn tafs around 09Z.

A weak cold front pushes into nrn Ohio on Wednesday. Cumulus 
clouds should develop during the late morning into afternoon. 
There is a chance of convection along and north of I-70. There 
in a VCSH in the northern tafs after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Sites