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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wilmington, OH (ILN)

                            
000
FXUS61 KILN 190539
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
139 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary draped across Ohio and Indiana will
continue to produce more showers and thunderstorms into this 
evening. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain and the 
flooding threat will continue. Activity will be on the decrease 
tonight before strengthening low pressure approaches the area 
late Wednesday and Thursday, bringing more showers and thunderstorms 
to the area. After a break on Friday, more active weather is 
expected over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Some showers continue, especially in central Ohio. Expect this
activity to diminish. But high resolution runs persist in
developing some more in southeast counties later tonight, so
kept chance PoPs going there. Skies will be partly cloudy. Still
potential for stratus to start developing towards daybreak.
Forecast lows look reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
We should continue to see a relative lull in convective coverage
Wednesday morning -- of course given the high vulnerability any
heavier shower could cause renewed high water issues. 

A noticeable increase in convection is then expected starting 
Wednesday afternoon as an upper trough approaches from the 
west. Environment will be the same characterized by high
moisture and some instability. Low level jet will allow promote
more shear, particularly during the evening and overnight hours.
So, expect high PoPs to continue into the night. 

Potential hazards will include both flash flooding and severe weather.
Given collaboration with neighboring offices, a continuation of
the the flash flood risk prompts an extension of the Flash Flood
Watch. For severe, the primary risk appears to be damaging wind
gusts, particularly later Wednesday and into the night given
better shear and potential for organized convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern will be present through most of the 
long term time frame. Thunderstorms are in the forecast every day 
except for during the day on Friday. With the repeated rounds of 
showers and thunderstorms, there will be the potential for 
additional flooding concerns.  Will continue to highlight this 
threat in the HWO.

There will be the potential for severe weather at the start of the 
long term on Thursday and then again over the weekend as well. Will 
continue to highlight the severe threat on Thursday in the HWO. Will 
hold off on the weekend systems until there is more confidence in 
the location of the severe weather potential.

High temperatures will increase from Thursday until Sunday and then 
be just slightly cooler on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Continued low confidence TAFs this cycle with a number of
concerns - the first being another night of localized
fog/stratus which has the potential to take any site to IFR
conditions quickly. KLUK has already gone there with river
valley fog and have hit this hard through 12Z with LIFR
conditions. Outside of this, guidance is pushing strongly for
the formation of rather widespread fog/stratus through the night
owing to weak winds in a convergent wind field with ample
moisture. Have brought visibilities and ceilings down into MVFR
category for most sites, but kept IFR limited based on lower
confidence. 

After sunrise, expect weak winds and a slowly lifting ceiling
for those with low clouds. Destabilization will once again bring
an increasing chance of showers and storms through the day, with
this threat peaking later this afternoon and evening with the
approach of a rather strong trough of low pressure. Will likely
need to move to prevailing thunderstorms at some point once
timing of storms is pinned down. Later Wednesday night, expect
winds to turn westerly as low pressure passes to the east and
shower/storm chances to diminish. 

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday, and 
again Friday night through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Binau