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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wilmington, OH (ILN)

                            
000
FXUS61 KILN 171520
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1120 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An oscillating frontal boundary in the region will provide daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday
afternoon with a brief dry period possible Thursday night into
Friday. Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible
this weekend, with seasonable temperatures and very humid
conditions persisting through the foreseeable future.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Broad southwesterly flow ahead of an H5 s/w will bringing 
increase PVA to the region today. The same moist and unstable 
airmass that has been across the region over the weekend still 
remains over the region today. The morning convection is 
expected to expend in coverage this afternoon as the atmosphere
destabilizes. CAPES of 2-3K J/kg are progged across the 
southern half of the fa.

Adjusted highs today to the mid to upper 70s, as morning fog and
low clouds has slowed warming.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Zonal flow pattern will continue through mid week with additional 
short wave energy pushing east across the area Wednesday into 
Thursday. This will bring an increasing chance of showers and 
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night/Thursday 
morning, before tapering off from west to east later in the day on 
Thursday.

Some mid level ridging will work east into the area through the day 
on Friday. This should allow for us to see a brief break in pcpn for 
Thursday night into Friday. As we head into the weekend, some 
differences arise among the models. There is the possibility though 
that some mid level energy may be able to ride over the ridge and 
drop down into our area through the weekend. Will therefore hang on 
to some chance pops Saturday and Sunday.

High temperature for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to 
upper 70s. We should then see a bit of a warming trend as the ridge 
builds in with highs into the low to mid 80s through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers continue to redevelop just to the
south/east of the local terminals but may be drifting north over
the first several hours of the TAF period. As such, did include
a VC and TEMPO -SHRA at all local terminals except KDAY through
mid-morning. 

In addition to the patches of showers, low CIGs and some VSBY
restrictions have developed just to the north/west of KDAY. Some
of these CIGs will briefly affect northern sites through mid-
morning, but VSBY restrictions are expected to stay mainly north
of the TAF sites. Did add TEMPO IFR CIGs for KDAY, KILN, KCMH,
and KLCK for the next several hours to account for these patches
of lower CIGs. 

Isolated to scattered and disorganized showers (and eventually 
thunderstorms) will become a bit more widespread during the 
morning and especially in the afternoon. There may in fact be 
two favored corridors of activity -- one near the weak surface 
boundary near the I-70 corridor and other along the better 
instability axis centered closer to the Ohio River. Either way, 
timing out individual dry periods for each of the terminals is 
quite a challenge even at these short time ranges. Nevertheless,
tried to time out favored windows for convection for each of 
the sites, with an earlier initiation expected for northern 
terminals along the aforementioned weak frontal boundary before 
eventually the convection trends towards the better instby 
further south (KILN, KCVG, and KLUK a bit later into the 
evening). 

Light southerly winds will go more southwesterly this morning 
and even a bit more west-southwesterly this afternoon before 
going light and variable or even calm past about 00z or so. 
This may allow for some MVFR VSBYs to develop towards the very 
end of the period (in areas without SHRA or TS) with ample low 
level moisture entrenched across the region. However, another 
more cohesive and widespread area of showers and storms may be 
moving into the southwest part of the local area past 06z or so,
affecting mainly the southern sites of KCVG and KLUK. The best
coverage of activity may end up being focused just to the
south/east of even KCVG and KLUK, but with some variability in
model data, decided to add prevailing SHRA in the several hours
around daybreak and beyond into the heart of Tuesday morning.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051-052-060.
     Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for OHZ053>056-
     061>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for INZ050-058-059.
     Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KC