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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wilmington, OH (ILN)

                            
000
FXUS61 KILN 170231
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1031 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will push east across the 
region through the week. These will combine with a lingering 
surface boundary over the Ohio Valley to result in occasional 
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to move across
southern counties and diminish as it moves east late tonight.
Additional activity will continue to bubble along an east-west
front stretching across the far northern counties. While rain
rates are not expected to be very high, with the ground already
saturated, felt it was best to continue the flash flood watch
through the night. Forecast lows look reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Broad southwest low level flow will persist across the region on  
Monday ahead of a H5 s/w. This combined with the lingering
frontal boundary will lead to convective development through 
the day. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s north to 
around 80 degrees across the far south.

The shortwave will swing across the region Monday night,
convection will linger though the night as the region remains 
in the moist and unstable airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An active weather pattern is expected to continue in the long term 
period.  Several rounds of thunderstorm activity is expected from 
Tuesday through Thursday.  While widespread severe weather is not 
expected at this time, there is at least an isolated damaging wind 
threat through this time.  In addition with the several rounds of 
thunderstorm activity, there will be continued flooding concerns as 
well.  There will be a brief break in the precipitation for Friday 
before additional thunderstorm chances on Saturday.

While temperatures most of the week will be in the middle 70s to low 
80s, temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s area wide on 
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H5 s/w will be pushing east overnight. Convection will start to
weaken on the backside of the s/w in the 06-09z time frame. 
Winds will also lower, allowing some MVFR fog to develop just 
before sunrise and affect the tafs. The fog will rise after 12Z 
Monday into a MVFR ceiling for the northern tafs.

More convection is expected to develop Monday afternoon as a
humid unstable airmass while remain across the region.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for OHZ077>079.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for KYZ091>093.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/Sites
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Sites