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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wilmington, OH (ILN)

                            
000
FXUS61 KILN 171753
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
153 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An oscillating frontal boundary in the region will provide daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday
afternoon with a brief dry period possible Thursday night into
Friday. Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible
this weekend, with seasonable temperatures and very humid
conditions persisting through the foreseeable future.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Broad southwesterly flow ahead of an H5 s/w will bringing 
increase PVA to the region today. The same moist and unstable 
airmass that has been across the region over the weekend still 
remains over the region today. The morning convection is 
expected to expend in coverage this afternoon as the atmosphere
destabilizes. CAPES of 2-3K J/kg are progged across the 
southern half of the fa.

Adjusted highs today to the mid to upper 70s, as morning fog and
low clouds has slowed warming.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Axis of the S/W and better forcing will begin to move east 
through the local area by Tuesday afternoon with a gradual shift
in best coverage of scattered showers/storms drifting southeast
with time on Tuesday afternoon. As such, decided to end the 
flash flood watch for west-central Ohio by 18z Tuesday and keep 
it up for the remaining parts of the local area through 00z 
Wednesday before finally a brief dry period arrives for Tuesday 
night. 

Although the overall widespread rainfall amounts may not be
impressive on their own (up to 2-3+ inches), the prospect of
having even 1-2 inches of rain on these wet soils between now
and Tuesday evening will pose a greater/quicker runoff of 
excessive rainfall than would otherwise be the case. The overall
setup for heavy rain, in terms of environment of forcing, jet 
energy, focused convergent axes, etc. will not quite be as 
impressive as was the case Saturday night into Sunday morning, 
but enough environmental ingredients are there, in conjunction 
with the antecedent conditions, to warrant a flash flood watch 
through part of the short term period. 

The best coverage of showers/storms will be near and south/east
of the I-71 corridor by later Tuesday afternoon, with most (if
not all) of the local area expected to see drier conditions for
Tuesday night. 

Highs on Tuesday will top out in the mid to upper 70s with a
slight (but brief) decrease in humidity near/north of I-70 as 
the front shifts south with time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Zonal flow pattern will continue through mid week with additional 
short wave energy pushing east across the area Wednesday into 
Thursday. This will bring an increasing chance of showers and 
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night/Thursday 
morning, before tapering off from west to east later in the day on 
Thursday.

Some mid level ridging will work east into the area through the day 
on Friday. This should allow for us to see a brief break in pcpn for 
Thursday night into Friday. As we head into the weekend, some 
differences arise among the models. There is the possibility though 
that some mid level energy may be able to ride over the ridge and 
drop down into our area through the weekend. Will therefore hang on 
to some chance pops Saturday and Sunday.

High temperature for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to 
upper 70s. We should then see a bit of a warming trend as the ridge 
builds in with highs into the low to mid 80s through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Isolated to scattered showers continue lift north across the
tafs. IFR/MVFR ceilings have limited daytime heating thus
thunder so far. Ceilings should lift to VFR later this 
afternoon and with additional heating thunderstorms are expected 
to develop and lift north into the tafs. They are forecast to 
reach the srn tafs after 21Z and the northern tafs by 00Z.

Storms will linger to between 00-06Z, before the convection is 
expected to weaken and become less widespread. MVFR then IFR 
ceilings are forecast to develop overnight along with MVFR 
ceilings.

MVFR/IFR ceilings will last past 12Z, before rising to VFR by
18Z. As daytime cycle continues convection is expected to
redevelop.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible through Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051-052-060.
     Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for OHZ053>056-
     061>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for INZ050-058-059.
     Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Sites