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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wilmington, OH (ILN)

FXUS61 KILN 160249

National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1049 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

A weak cold front will push southeast across the region tonight
through Monday, possibly leading to an isolated shower. High 
pressure will then build back into the region through the rest 
of the week, leading to dry conditions and a continuation of 
above normal temperatures.


Northwest flow aloft with very weak embedded shortwave dropping 
southeast across the area overnight. Associated weak surface 
front to drop southeast into Northwest Ohio by morning and 
across ILN/s FA on Monday. 

Ahead of this front, weak isentropic lift associated with a 20 
kt weakening 8H jet will lead to scattered/widely scattered 
showers overnight across the northern counties. 

Latest radar mosaic shows a few showers across the far north in
this region of lift. Have limited pops to chance/slight chance 
across this far northern area overnight. 

Expect overnight lows generally in the lower to mid 60s, with 
some readings near 60 in the far southeast. 


A few showers may linger into Monday morning across mainly our
northeast as the mid level energy shifts off to our southeast.
Meanwhile, the front will continue to push southeast across our
area through Monday afternoon. We should see some increase 
in clouds across the north as we get into some weak low level 
CAA behind the front. Highs on Monday will range from the low 
80s in the north to the upper 80s/near 90 across the far south.
Depending on the exact timing of the front, we may be able to 
destabilize enough across our southeast to see some spotty 
shower development through mid afternoon. However, with the 
better chance of pcpn looking to be off to our southeast, will 
maintain a dry forecast for the afternoon. Lows Monday night 
will be in the low to mid 60s.


The period begins on Tuesday as the weak cold front departs to 
the southeast, leaving dry and warm conditions in its wake. On 
the larger scale, a strong shortwave will be moving into the 
intermountain west, serving to build a high amplitude ridge in 
place over the Central Plains, with a weak trof over the New 
England states.

Most of the long term forecast will be characterized by the effect 
of the ridge on the local area's weather through the work week as 
the ridge builds and shifts to the east over the Ohio Valley.  This 
will continue the unseasonably warm, dry conditions over the region 
through at least Friday.  

A second, stronger West Coast storm, dipping into the Great Basin 
region on Thursday, will eject to the northeast heading into the 
weekend.  This will finally start to flatten the ridge and allow for 
a cold front to make headway toward the Ohio Valley late in the 
weekend.  Ahead of the front, precipitation chances will increase 
into the day on Sunday.


VFR conditions expected through the TAF forecast period. Mid 
and high level clouds to spill southeast across the area this 
evening. A weak cold front will pivot southeast into the area 
late tonight into Monday morning. A few rain showers will be
possible mainly north of the TAF site, so have left any 
mention out of the TAFs. Clouds will lower mainly across the 
northern TAF sites with cigs remaining VFR but dropping to 
around 5000 feet. 

Light southwest winds will veer to the northwest at 10 kts or
less Monday and then to the north by Monday evening. 

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.