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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wilmington, OH (ILN)

                            
000
FXUS61 KILN 240607
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
207 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through on Monday. High pressure will 
build into the area on Tuesday with dry weather and comfortable 
temperatures. Warmth and humidity will spread back into the area
as the week wears on with temperatures getting back above 
normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
First line of convection is in the Scioto Valley and working
east while weakening. A second line in western Indiana down into
Kentucky will move east and should affect the region overnight.
The nw counties could see some rumbles of thunder from the 
storms out by Terre Haute, while the storms in central KY could 
build north into nrn KY. In between an area of showers will 
lift up across the rest of the fa. Increased PoPs to likely to 
categorical for the first half of the night, before allow PoPs 
to decrease.

Temperatures will be steady state for much of the fa in the mid
to upper 60s as the region is rain cooled this evening. The few
areas in central OHio and the lower Scioto Valley that have 
cooled down yet, will in the next hour or two.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Expect there to be scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing
on Monday morning as stronger height falls head east through the
Great Lakes - driving a cold front through the forecast area at
peak heating. Overall shear profiles as areas destabilize is a
little better as wind fields will be increasing aloft. 30-40kts
of effective shear with some mid level enhancement suggest storm
evolution /which may start as discrete cells/ will quickly form
to line segments with frontal forcing and unidirectional lower-
mid tropospheric flow. Given the timing of the forcing and
frontal boundary - things may get started convectively a little
earlier than the usual mid/late afternoon event. Things begin 
to get going as early as noon or so on the west side of the 
forecast and slowly build in coverage/intensity in the 
afternoon. This favors areas along/east of I-71 to intercept the
best juxtaposition of shear and instability at peak heating, so
would not be surprised to see a watch and/or collection of 
wind-focused severe reports in this area. 

Storms will shift east Tuesday evening with dry weather expected

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday starts out nicely dry and comfortable in the wake of a cold 
front with generally sunny skies and highs within a degree or two of 
80. High pressure ridge south of the region will be oriented sw-ne 
and permit a sw surface flow to increase humidity, primarily during 
the day Wednesday. This modest increase in low level moisture will 
coincide with a weak surface front. Front is expected to trail a 
remnant lobe of H5 vorticity maxima, connected southwestward to an 
upper circulation progged to cross the lower TN Valley late Wed and 
overnight. Will not rule out thunder on Wednesday, but inclusion of 
pops seems prudent with scattered terminology. Expect to downplay 
thunder chances until a few hours in the late day that would have 
all of the ingredients in play to create deeper convection. This is 
still hit-or-miss and models are by no means in agreement on the 
finer details.  Expect a rapid decrease in any activity Wed evening 
in favor of clearing overnight as loss of daytime heating 
effectively removes most of the shower threat by midnight. Surface 
front will die out as it butts into the high pressure ridge 
mentioned earlier that is still located just s and se of ILN CWA. 

Surface high builds back over the region Thursday into Friday with a 
disorganized surface wind field underneath a broad upper ridge 
building over the central U.S. and a general increase in heights for 
the eastern third of the country. Shortwave energy will likely be 
transient through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley next 
weekend, and could accompany yet another weak cold front/wind shift 
that is currently forecast by the GFS to occur Saturday. European 
has this wind shift/front to happen before daybreak Saturday and is 
more robust with a H5 trough versus disjointed shortwave energy 
passing on northwest flow aloft. Both models have a surface high 
build in strongly behind the front and follow it with a l/w trough, 
reinforcing colder and drier air at the very end of the forecast. 

Regardless of how the exact scenario plays out this coming weekend, 
pops with some thunder chances will remain in play until future 
forecasts get a better handle on the mass fields and permit a finer 
detail to emerge on timing/placement and potential occurrence. 

Temperatures will gradually rise through the week but likely be 
capped in the mid 80s for most of the region. A few upper 80s may be 
possible but that will occur in the south half of CWA on Thurs or 
Fri. It will also be highly dependent on generally sunny skies which 
are more likely Thursday. Friday has better indications of pop up 
showers being possible due to daytime heating, which would stop 
temps from pushing much past the 85 degree mark. Overnight lows will 
be in the mid to upper 60s through the period, topping out just shy 
of 70 Fri and Sat night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will just be exiting the 
KILN TAF site at the beginning of the TAF period. This area of 
precipitation will move into KCMH and KLCK overnight. 

Generally dry conditions are expected to return to the region 
for the daytime morning hours. Winds will begin to pick up 
during the day on Monday with wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots 
possible outside of thunderstorm activity. An approaching cold 
front will allow for thunderstorm development during the 
afternoon hours. Timed in VCTS and TSRA into the TAF sites. 
Vsbys will be reduced with the thunderstorm activity. Did not 
time in additional wind gusts with the storms at this time, 
however expect additional gusty winds with the thunderstorm 
activity. 

Residual shower activity will linger into the first part of the
night before dry conditions return towards the end of the TAF 
period. 

VFR cigs will start out the TAF period, however could see some 
MVFR cigs with thunderstorm activity and just after the 
thunderstorm activity.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Binau
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Binau
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Novak