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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wilmington, OH (ILN)

                            
000
FXUS61 KILN 220213
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1013 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will provide scattered showers and 
storms tonight and Monday. Cooler and drier air will settle by 
midweek, with an extended stretch of below normal temperatures 
and dry weather conditions expected for most of the upcoming 
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Weakening MCS is tracking across the forecast area. This 
convection will move out of the area before daybreak. However,
as low pressure slowly moves east southeast into the area later
tonight, some additional showers may develop to the north and
west of the low. Forecast temperatures look reasonable at this
point. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Midlevel energy ahead of the main trof axis will be working its 
work its way through the region Monday. In combination with sfc
convergence from the front, showers and thunderstorms will
continue to affect the region. Highest PoPs will be southeast of
I-71. The precipitation chances will begin to end from northwest
to southeast in the afternoon.

Temperatures will be much cooler, only reaching the mid to upper
70s.
 
A few storms could be lingering in the southeastern counties
early Monday night, but high pressure building in from the 
Great Plains, will quickly push them out of the region while
also bringing clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will push off to our southeast Monday night into 
Tuesday morning, allowing for the shower and thunderstorm activity 
to gradually taper off. We will remain below normal for 
temperatures with highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s.

Surface high pressure will then build into the region for mid to late 
week. However, the stronger mid and upper level ridging will remain 
over the western United States. This will help keep our region in 
more of a northwest flow pattern aloft. At this point, it looks like 
any energy riding over the ridge will generally remain to our 
north/northeast. As a result, will maintain a dry forecast through 
Friday although suppose there could eventually be a lower end pcpn 
later in the week. 

High temperatures will slowly moderate to more normal daytime 
readings. Highs by Friday and Saturday will be back into the mid to 
possibly upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will move across the TAF sites during
the early portion of the period. Intensity of the storms will
gradually diminish, although there is still some potential for
temporary IFR visibility reductions, and lightning activity may
slowly wane. Outside of storms reducing visibility, expect VFR
for most of the night. As a boundary sags through the region,
winds will veer and MVFR ceilings will develop towards 12Z. The
lower ceilings are likely to continue for much of the day with
ceilings lifting after 21Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC/Sites
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...