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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wilmington, OH (ILN)

                            
000
FXUS61 KILN 221052
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
652 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the area this morning. With the
return of warm and humid air, there will be several chances for
thunderstorms over the next few days. An active weather pattern
will continue over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms tracking across Indiana will
continue to weaken as forcing weakens. Axis of weak moisture
transport will slowly translate east through the day. Associated
maximum in moisture will be favored area for convection to
redevelop this afternoon as atmosphere destabilizes with 
heating. Cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms with any
updrafts that may become more robust anywhere across the area. 

Should be a decent temperature gradient across the region for
the warm season. Thicker clouds are forecast to remain across
areas north and west of Dayton which should keep highs in the
70s. Meanwhile, south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky will 
see more sun which should allow readings to soar into the upper 
80s there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Some convection will likely continue into the evening before
dissipating. However, there are some indications that a few 
showers or even storms could track across the area overnight 
within the axis of higher moisture which will become oriented 
from the Tri-State to south of the Columbus area. At this point,  
thought the probability was low enough to dry out the forecast, 
but it is something to watch.

Details concerning convective potential become even more
uncertain heading into Thursday. Thus relied quite a bit on the
HREF to attempt to capture stronger signals within the model
suite. Based on that, it appears that there could be two rounds
of convection tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms may track out
of Illinois late tonight and cross generally northern parts of
Indiana and Ohio during the morning. If this occurs, then an
effective boundary is likely to be bisecting the forecast area
during peak heating. Atmosphere is forecast to become rather
unstable, so additional storms are expected to develop in the
afternoon with the greater chance between I-70 and the Ohio
River. There will be sufficient shear in combination with the
instability to bring a risk of severe storms with all modes
possible.

With increased dew points, lows will remain warm with readings
only dropping to the mid to upper 60s. Highs could be tricky
depending on the convective evolution, but believe that there
will be enough sun at some point in the day to reach the mid 80s
in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An active weather pattern will be in place through most of the long 
term period.  Thunderstorms will be ongoing Thursday night and 
moving across southern portions of the region.  These will slowly 
push out of the area Thursday night.  

The ridge will be in place on Friday allowing for mostly dry 
conditions and warm conditions with high temperatures in the 80s. 
There will be the potential for some pop up thunderstorm activity 
during the day on Friday.

Saturday will be another hot day with temperatures generally in the 
80s. Start to get more return moisture on Saturday and the ridge 
begins to break down. Multiple waves and rounds of disturbances will 
work through the region Saturday through Tuesday.  Severe weather 
will certainty be possible during this time, however with timing and 
strength uncertainties decided not to mention in the HWO at this 
time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the period. There will be
mainly mid and high clouds early. Expect a VFR ceiling to
develop as better low level moisture moves into the area this
afternoon. Cannot rule out some convection, although the chance
is low for it affecting any of the terminals. After 00Z, clouds
will become scattered to few. East southeast winds will veer to
the south as a warm front moves across the area during the early
part of the TAF period. These southerly winds may gust up to 20
kt this afternoon and then diminish tonight. 
 
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday and again Saturday 
and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...