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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wilmington, OH (ILN)

FXUS61 KILN 252348

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
648 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Surface high pressure will build into the region tonight 
offering dry weather and cooler temperatures. This high will 
build across the Ohio Valley providing continued dry conditions 
through Tuesday. Moisture looks to return in the southerly flow 
on the back side of retreating high pressure Wednesday.


West-southwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building 
into the Ohio Valley overnight. Latest satellite imagery shows 
clouds have eroded some allowing for more sunshine over the nw 
portion of ILN/s FA. Expect to see a fair amount of high level 
clouds thru about 06Z and then a decrease in these clouds late. 

With winds becoming light and clouds clearing temperatures will
be colder tonight. Expect lows from the lower 30s northwest to
the upper 30s southeast.


Surface high pressure will build across the area Monday
afternoon. Dry airmass with surface dewpoints dropping into the
20s. Expect to see mostly sunny sky conditions with temperatures
around 10 degrees above normal. Expect to see highs on Monday 
from the lower 50s north to the mid 50s south. 

The center of the surface high will slide off to the east 
Monday night. Clear skies to continue in the dry airmass with 
lows from near 30 northeast to the mid 30s southwest.


Surface high pressure will begin to shift off to the east through 
the day on Tuesday, leading to a gradual increase in mainly high 
level cloudiness. It will also allow for us to get into some return 
flow through the day with temperatures pushing up into the upper 50s 
to lower 60s. 

A mid and upper level trough axis will move out of the Rockies on 
Wednesday with some northern and southern stream energy phasing 
together as the trough moves into the Midwest and Great Lakes region 
through Thursday. There are some timing/strength and placement 
differences among the models but the overall gist is for a 
developing surface low to lift from the mid Mississippi Valley into 
the southern Great Lakes through the day on Thursday. Ahead of this, 
a warm front will lift up into our area through Wednesday night 
before an attendant cold front pushes through as the low moves east 
through Thursday. This will allow for a chance of showers to develop 
northward into the area through the day on Wednesday with the 
highest pops across the south. As the low approaches along with some 
better forcing, showers will then become more widespread Wednesday 
night into Thursday before beginning to taper off later Thursday 
into Thursday night as the low shifts eastward. Have kept pcpn just 
showers for now, but some weak elevated instabilities will be pulled 
northward into at least southern portions of our fa ahead of the low 
so we may eventually need to introduce a slight chance of thunder. 
Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs mostly in the 
50s to possibly lower 60s both Wednesday and Thursday. 

High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region late in 
the week and into the weekend. Highs for Friday and Saturday will be 
in the 40s.


Surface high pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley
tonight. The high will settle across the Ohio Valley on Monday.
The high is then expected to move east Monday night. 

Enhanced high level clouds are expected for much of tonight as
high level moisture and an upper level jet produce cirrus.
Forecast models shift the cirrus out of the region between 09Z
and 12Z. Thereafter, skies will be mainly clear. 

Winds will vary in direction across the region into Monday
depending on the ridge axis. Variable winds Monday evening
should shift a south to southeast direction overnight. 
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday in 
showers. MVFR ceilings possible on Friday.