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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 210446
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1146 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Today, a mid/upper ridge across the central CONUS has allowed for
plenty of sun across the region. Southerly winds brought 
temperatures into the 70s and 80s. During the day tomorrow, a 
surface low strengthening across western Kansas and Nebraska will 
tighten the pressure gradient. Therefore, expecting southerly 
winds to be a bit breezy during the afternoon. This will also 
result in warmer temperatures with highs in the 80s area-wide.

The main highlight and challenge in the short term, however, will
be the conditional chances for thunderstorms tomorrow evening. 
Ahead of a surface cold front that will make its way across the 
state Sunday night-Monday night, a leading shortwave will eject 
across northern Kansas in the evening tomorrow. Increased forcing 
and moisture could initiate a few thunderstorms, but the limiting 
factor will be the strong cap that will be in place over much of 
the area. As the cold front approaches, models continue to show 
plenty of available instability with lapse rates roughly 8-9C/km, 
but also high convective inhibition, especially in south central 
and southeast Kansas. Models do suggest some weakening of the cap 
in central Kansas, however, which could be enough to initiate a 
few strong to marginally severe storms given the instability and 
modest wind shear. Most CAMs support this as well showing 
transient storms developing sometime after 00z. In any storms that
do develop, the main threats would be hail up to around 1 inch or
so and wind gusts around 60mph. 

The cold front will slowly progress across the area on Monday
before exiting to the southeast Monday night with storm
development possible along the frontal boundary in southeast
Kansas during the afternoon/evening. However, severe storms do not
appear likely given the marginal instability. Another more potent
shortwave will eject across Kansas overnight Monday night through
Tuesday, bringing much better chances for more widespread rain
chances with a few thunderstorms. Behind the front, temperatures
will be much cooler on Tuesday with highs struggling to reach the
mid/upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

By mid-week, things will quiet back down across central, south
central, and southeast Kansas as an upper level low tracks across
the Southern Plains while a weak disturbance follows across the
Northern Plains. This should keep the immediate area in the dry
slot, though slight variations could re-introduce low precip
chances during the latter portion of the week. Temperatures will
rebound during the middle of the week and settle into the 70s for
the remainder of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  For the 
overnight hours, expect the low level jet to increase across the 
region, which will lead to low level wind shear for the overnight 
hours for most locations. A low pressure area will gradually move 
into central KS by Sun afternoon with a dry line pushing into 
portions of central KS  by Sun afternoon. There is a very slim 
chance of an isolated TSRA developing along the boundary from 
22z/Sun to 03z/Mon. But due to isolated nature of the chance, prefer 
to not mention it in the TAFS at this time.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Multiple chances for rain over the next several days will keep
grassland fire danger low across central, south central, and
southeast Kansas throughout the next week. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    56  83  57  75 /   0  10  10  10 
Hutchinson      57  83  55  73 /   0  10  20  10 
Newton          56  82  56  73 /   0   0  20  10 
ElDorado        55  83  59  75 /   0   0  20  10 
Winfield-KWLD   56  82  59  77 /   0   0  10  10 
Russell         57  88  51  68 /   0  10  20  10 
Great Bend      57  88  52  70 /   0  10  20   0 
Salina          57  84  56  72 /   0  10  20  10 
McPherson       57  83  55  72 /   0  10  20  10 
Coffeyville     54  82  61  78 /   0   0  10  20 
Chanute         53  83  61  76 /   0   0  10  20 
Iola            53  82  61  75 /   0   0  10  20 
Parsons-KPPF    54  82  62  76 /   0   0  10  20 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...TAV