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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 171753
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

A slow moving upper level low pressure will continue to generate
showers/storms over far southeast Kansas today. Strong or severe
storms are not anticipated. 

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper level trough over 
the western states with embedded short wave approaching southern 
California. This short wave will move towards Kansas by Tuesday 
morning. Strong isentropic lift(305-315K layer) begins later tonight 
and spreads eastward across the region for Tuesday morning. This 
should spark off scattered to numerous elevated storms for late 
tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly affecting central Kansas 
northward into Nebraska. 

Meanwhile airmass will become fairly unstable over central and 
southern Kansas on Tuesday. A cold front will push southward into 
this unstable airmass with thunderstorms becoming more numerous by 
Tuesday night. Severe weather is likely across Kansas given the 
expected favorable parameters to produce some supercells with large 
hail and damaging winds. There is also a chance for a few tornadoes 
to occur in the region. Model forecast hodographs show decent 
potential for low level rotation, especially for any discrete 
supercells that can materialize over south central Kansas into 
Oklahoma. We will continue to monitor this period the next few
days. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Warmer temperatures will return to the region for Thursday and 
Friday with mainly dry weather expected as the upper level pattern 
transitions to southwest flow. Long range models show a decent cold 
front pushing southward across Kansas for next weekend. This will 
increase thunderstorm chances along with severe weather potential 
given very unstable airmass and stronger winds aloft on Saturday. 
Frontal position/timing is more uncertain for Sunday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Diurnal heating may result in some widely scattered showers this
afternoon, most likely across portions of southeast KS where VCSH
was maintained at KCNU. Other more isolated showers may impact
portions of south central KS but coverage is expected to remain
fairly limited. Late tonight we could see some additional activity
drift eastward off the high plains mainly impacting portions of
our central KS counties. Better chances for more widespread
strong and severe storms will arrive after 21-22Z on Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  65  85  64 /  10  10  20  70 
Hutchinson      84  63  85  62 /   0  20  40  60 
Newton          83  63  84  63 /   0  10  30  70 
ElDorado        83  63  83  64 /  10  10  20  70 
Winfield-KWLD   83  64  85  65 /  10  10  10  70 
Russell         85  62  81  60 /  10  40  50  50 
Great Bend      86  63  83  60 /   0  30  50  50 
Salina          86  63  81  62 /   0  20  50  70 
McPherson       84  63  83  62 /   0  20  40  70 
Coffeyville     82  65  84  67 /  40  20  10  70 
Chanute         82  63  83  65 /  30  20  10  80 
Iola            81  63  83  65 /  30  20  10  70 
Parsons-KPPF    82  64  84  66 /  30  20  10  70 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...MWM