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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 192319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
519 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

Issued at 341 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

The snow has started across the area with moderate to heavy
snowfall from Rice to Harper counties. Snowfall rates of three
inches an hour occurred in Kingman County with a reported five
inches already in the city of Kingman. While this could be a few
hour window of moderate snowfall, this has prompted the issuance
of a Winter Storm Warning for Kingman, Reno and the rest of the
central Kansas counties. It is possible that around six inches and
isolated higher amounts are expected to occur. Please see the
latest warning text product for more information. 


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 341 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

1) Snow into the evening/overnight 
2) Rain on Friday 

A deep mid/upper trough moving over the Rockies today will bring 
increasing large-scale forcing for ascent across the Central Plains 
as we move through the evening and overnight hours. Widespread snow 
is expected to rapidly expand in coverage this afternoon and evening 
before becoming mixed with light freezing rain, ice pellets or 
drizzle at times during the overnight and early morning hours. Short 
range models are in good agreement supporting around 0.40" liquid 
which would result in a general 3-5 inches of snow with locally 
higher amounts but they also continue to indicate a lack of 
saturation in the dendritic snow growth zone after 03-05Z which may 
impact snowfall totals across portions of south central and 
southeast Kansas. Recent snowfall totals of 4-5 inches across 
portions of Kingman, Reno and Harper county have prompted the 
issuance of a winter storm warning for a narrow band where 5-7 
inches may be possible.

The trough will keep tracking off to the north bringing snow to the 
Northern Plains after it exits here tonight into Wednesday. There
is a subsequent trough that pushes south on the western side of 
the Rockies. This is the next system to monitor for the weekend 
as it pushes east from the Desert Southwest on Friday into 
Saturday. An eastward deepening progressing anticipated with this 
system as it has shown for the past few days. Chances of 
precipitation have been increased for Friday during the day with 
rain being the predominant type; the onset in the morning could be
a mixture of types. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

Highlight: Rain with possible thunder on Saturday and maybe a 
wintry mix in central Kansas

As the trough mentioned above moves into the Plains, this is when
the chances for precipitation increase therefore on Saturday. 
Instability and increased moisture transport prompt the 
possibility for scattered thunderstorms. Thus this mention was 
maintained in the forecast. Temperatures will keep this as a rain 
event with the possibility of a mix of wintry precipitation in 
portions of central Kansas. This is a fairly quick hitting system 
with a complete exit by Saturday evening/night. 

A tightened gradient associated with this system prompted an increase 
in the wind field on Saturday into Sunday with the passage of 
this system. The CONSMOS was used as the base for guidance with 
slight downward adjustments from that prog. Again modifications 
have been made to the timing and chances of precipitation on 
Friday and Saturday. This is expected to continue given the period
in the forecast. Please stay tuned for updates. If you are in 
south central or southeast Kansas, Saturday is the warmest day of 
the forecast with highs around 50 to closer to 60 in the far 
southeast corner. 

Another wave is on track to pass through on Monday into Tuesday.
Models vary in their prognosis for this wave in timing and depth.
It is certainly not as strong as the system over the weekend.
Given these differences, changes are anticipated in the coming
days. Overall this forecast maintains temperatures below seasonal
normal for most of this forecast in all but southeast Kansas.
There is a relative consistency of the upper 30s to upper 40s for
Sunday to Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

Widespread light to moderate snow will affect much of central and
southeast Kansas this evening. Frequent periods of IFR cigs and 
vsbys with occasional LIFR conditions possible in snow. The snow
will taper off after midnight with some lingering light snow in
central Kansas and freezing drizzle in southeast Kansas.
Conditions will improve to VFR by late in the forecast valid
period on Wednesday as the storm system moves northeast away from
the region.



Issued at 341 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

Minimal fire concerns are expected throughout this forecast with
multiple chances for precipitation. An increase in the wind speeds
on Saturday elevated the Grassland Fire Danger Index calculations
in the the very high category for parts of south central and
southeast Kansas. However, rain is forecast on that day. Thus the
concern doesn't apply. 


Wichita-KICT    25  37  19  47 / 100  10   0   0 
Hutchinson      20  36  18  45 / 100  10   0   0 
Newton          22  34  19  45 / 100  10   0   0 
ElDorado        24  36  20  47 / 100  10   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   27  37  20  48 / 100  10   0   0 
Russell         16  34  16  41 / 100  10   0   0 
Great Bend      16  35  17  43 / 100  10   0   0 
Salina          20  34  16  43 / 100  10   0   0 
McPherson       19  34  17  43 / 100  10   0   0 
Coffeyville     30  40  24  51 / 100  10   0   0 
Chanute         29  38  21  49 / 100  10   0   0 
Iola            29  37  20  48 / 100  10   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    29  39  23  50 / 100  10   0   0 


Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ052-053-

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ032-033-