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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 191210
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
710 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Dense fog is developing rapidly in Barton and Russell Counties and
should spread as far east as a line from Lincoln to Lyons. A Dense
Fog Advisory has been issued for these areas and is in effect
until 9 AM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Currently have shortwave troughing extending from northern
Manitoba into the northeast CONUS with additional upper energy
coming on shore over the Pacific Northwest. Water vapor imagery
also shows some weak moonsonal energy lingering over NM.

Confidence remains high that excessive heat will be in place for
both today and Tuesday as upper ridging continues to build over 
the southern Plains. Still looking for heat indices in the 105 to 
110 degree range for most of the area. MCS activity is expected to
remain north tonight, where best 850mb theta-e advection will be 
situated. 

There is good model agreement that a fairly impressive upper
trough will dig across Ontario into the Great Lakes for Tue night
through Wed. This will allow a cold front to migrate south across
the Central Plains. At the same time, a series of upper impulses
are expected to lift out of the southwest and into the southern
Plains. This setup will allow for increasing shower and storm
chances starting late Tue night and continuing through Wed night.
At this time it appears the best chance for widespread convection
will be Wed night into Thu morning as a decent mid level warm
advection pattern sets up. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

ECMWF and GFS both agree on swinging a shortwave trough across the
Northern Rockies and into the northern Plains by Fri. This will
flatten out the upper flow over the central and southern Rockies 
which will allow moonsonal energy to spill out into the southern 
Plains, keeping precip chances around into the weekend. That far 
out it will be tough determine the time frame with better chances 
for storms, but do feel there will be multiple opportunities. 

As far as temps go, confidence is high we are not looking at a
significant warmup with temps near or below seasonal normals.
However, with dewpoint remaining in the 70s for much of the area,
it will still feel muggy, like it has most of this summer. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 710 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

LIFR/VLIFR cigs & vsbys will shroud KGBD & KRSL until ~14Z when
NE-E winds up to 10kts would slowly shift toward the E-SE at
similar speeds. Once the FG dissipates, all areas would be VFR
with SCT Cumulus developing later this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    97  76  99  74 /   0  10  10  20 
Hutchinson      97  75 100  73 /   0  10  10  30 
Newton          94  75  98  73 /  10  10  10  20 
ElDorado        94  75  98  74 /  10  10  10  20 
Winfield-KWLD   97  76  98  74 /   0   0  10  10 
Russell         95  73 101  70 /   0  10  10  40 
Great Bend      96  73 101  70 /   0  10  10  40 
Salina          95  76 101  72 /  10  10  10  30 
McPherson       96  75  99  72 /  10  10  10  30 
Coffeyville     95  76  96  75 /  10  10   0  10 
Chanute         94  75  95  74 /  10  10  10  20 
Iola            93  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  20 
Parsons-KPPF    94  75  95  74 /  10  10  10  20 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for 
KSZ033-048>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ032-033-
047-048-050.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS