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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 181105
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
605 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

The main challenge today is chances and areal extent of diurnal 
showers/isolated thunder this afternoon into the early evening.
This is in response to a northern stream upper trof digging 
across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The combination of 
cold air aloft, marginal moisture and diurnal heating will result
in weak instability with steep low level lapse rates for locations
generally west of the Kansas turnpike this afternoon. This is
expected to promote widely scattered high based showers and
perhaps isolated thunder in the northerly flow regime. While 
winds are expected to be gusty, the drier sub-cloud air and
inverted-V type sounding may also lend to accelerated winds due 
to evaporative cooling with any showers. This activity should
wane quickly with loss of heating in the early evening. Dry 
weather and near seasonal temperatures are expected Friday, with
increasing return southerly low level flow and ridging aloft 
resulting in a dry and warmer Saturday with high temperatures 
back above seasonal climo.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

A rather unsettled period is expected through the first half of
next week as a series progressively stronger upper trofs venture
into the central CONUS. A relatively weaker lead upper shortwave
will move across Kansas on Easter Sunday resulting in a chance for
showers and storms. A deeper upper trof is expected to develop
over the western CONUS on Monday, though medium range guidance 
differ on the movement of this trof into Tuesday and Wednesday. 
The GFS is a bit more progressive with a lead shortwave ejecting
out ahead of the main trof across the area, while the ECMWF is a 
bit slower before a closed low evolves over the central Plains on
Wednesday. While confidence on daily trends are low, there is 
general support for a frontal boundary to remain in the area on 
Monday and perhaps into early Tuesday, so slight to modest chance 
PoPs seem warranted through the early portion of next week.

KED 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Northwest winds will gradually increase across the region for
later this morning and afternoon. Meanwhile a upper level wave
will move southward across Kansas with developing high based showers
and isolated storms for this afternoon. This activity will 
gradually diminish shortly after sunset along with decreasing 
north winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Widespread significant rainfall occurred across south central and
southeast Kansas Wednesday evening/night. There will be additional
chances for widely scattered showers today for locations mainly
west of the Kansas turnpike. Despite lower daytime humidity levels
today and gusty north winds, the recent rainfall and expected
showers should mute the grassland fire weather concerns. Breezy
and warmer weather is expected by Saturday, though the grassland
fire danger is expected to remain below critical values the next
few days.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  42  67  43 /  20  20   0   0 
Hutchinson      67  40  67  43 /  20  20   0   0 
Newton          66  40  66  43 /  20  20   0   0 
ElDorado        66  41  66  43 /  20  20   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   67  42  67  44 /  20  20   0   0 
Russell         66  37  68  44 /  30  20   0   0 
Great Bend      66  37  68  44 /  20  20   0   0 
Salina          67  39  68  43 /  30  20   0   0 
McPherson       66  39  67  43 /  30  20   0   0 
Coffeyville     66  43  66  41 /  10  10   0   0 
Chanute         65  42  65  41 /  10  10   0   0 
Iola            64  42  64  41 /  10  10   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    65  43  66  41 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...KED