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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 242353
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
653 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Morning low clouds continue to slowly erode with the afternoon 
heating. Focus late this afternoon through tonight will be severe 
weather chances and flooding threat.  

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late 
this afternoon or this evening across NW KS, close to the Neb/KS 
line, ahead a fairly strong mid level wave currently over the 
panhandle of Neb, in the upslope flow regime. The combination of 
good forcing, a mid level baroclinic zone, moderate instability and 
bulk shear will lead to this scattered cluster of storms becoming 
severe as it begins to shift SE towards central KS. Most of the 
convective bearing hi-rez model solutions bear this out. There is 
one caveat, that further south in the warm sector, west of a KHYS to 
KGBD line, a few discrete supercells may develop ahead of the 
cluster in NW KS late this afternoon.  Any supercell that develops 
may track east towards central KS.  If a supercell can remain 
discrete, all facets of severe weather will be possible, given 
favorable directional shear profiles with 2 inch hail, damaging 
winds and even a tornado or two.  

As the evening progresses, expect the south-southeast moving storm 
cluster, in central KS, to congeal with any discrete supercells, 
into a strongly forced forward propagating complex of storms (MCS). 
As it moves south, cold pool will lead to the complex accelerating 
south, with the cluster turning into a damaging wind (60-70mph 
winds) and flooding threat. Think the complex makes it into south 
central KS after 09z.  Have already expanded the flood watch further 
to the east to areas along and just east of I-135, given high 
precipitable water values.  Forward propagation of the complex will 
probably limit the flash flooding/heavy rainfall threat, but do 
expect high rainfall rates, which may lead to street flooding and 
lowland flooding. Still think some areas could see 1 to 3 inches of 
rainfall.  

Think showers/storms will be ongoing across most of southern KS into 
Sunday morning possibly into Sun afternoon for eastern sections, so 
will keep some chance pops in for the lingering showers/storms on 
Sun.

Increasing warm advection for late Sun into Mon will push most of 
the convective activity further northeast of the area thru early 
Mon. Could see some sort of complex of storms move across NE KS and 
eastern KS for early Mon. A strong cold front looks to push south 
across the area for Mon night through early Tue, so storm chances 
will return to much of southern KS for late Monday night. Both the 
ECMWF and GFS coming through a little faster with this front than 
previous runs, which would lead to storm chances increasing on Mon 
afternoon and Mon night. 

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

The middle to end of the week looks dry, with possibly some 
lingering storms along the KS/OK border early Tue, as the medium 
range models suggests a ridge of high pressure will settle over the 
plains. This will lead to a period of dry and seasonal conditions 
for the area. Model blends look way over done with pops for Wed, so 
with collaboration with neighbors, lowered or removed pops for most 
of Wed/Wed night.   

Medium range models now suggesting another cold front will push into 
the area for late Thu into early Fri.  This looks like another shot 
of showers and storms for the area. 

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Expecting thunderstorm chances to increase from the northwest this
evening and overnight, with the highest confidence across central
and south-central Kansas. Strong to severe wind gusts, intense
rainfall and IFR conditions are possible within the strongest 
cores. Thunderstorm chances may tend to linger past daybreak 
across mainly central and south-central Kansas, within a zone of 
persistent 850-700mb warm advection and moisture transport.
Activity should gradually decrease in coverage from the north
Sunday morning. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  81  70  89 /  80  40  10  30 
Hutchinson      66  81  69  87 /  80  30   0  20 
Newton          65  79  69  87 /  80  40  10  30 
ElDorado        66  79  68  89 /  80  50  10  30 
Winfield-KWLD   68  80  69  90 /  80  50  10  30 
Russell         64  83  69  84 /  80  10  10  20 
Great Bend      65  82  69  84 /  80  10   0  10 
Salina          66  82  69  86 /  70  20  10  30 
McPherson       66  81  69  86 /  80  30   0  30 
Coffeyville     70  79  70  89 /  40  80  10  30 
Chanute         69  77  69  88 /  50  70  20  40 
Iola            69  77  68  88 /  50  60  20  40 
Parsons-KPPF    70  77  69  88 /  50  70  20  30 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ032-033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...ADK