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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 190741
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Showers and storms with heavy rainfall will linger over far 
southeast Kansas early this morning before sliding eastward into 
Missouri. Current water vapor satellite imagery shows a upper level 
PV wave over Wyoming which will move southeast across Nebraska for 
this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms look to develop ahead 
of this upper wave, mainly affecting eastern sections of Nebraska 
and Kansas for this afternoon with cooler 700mb temps aloft. 

Heat and humidity will build across Kansas for Thursday into Friday 
as 70+ dewpoints currently over eastern Texas spreads northward into 
Kansas this period. Afternoon heat indices on Friday look to top 100 
degrees for most areas. 

The main question is will storms develop along a frontal boundary in 
central Kansas on Thursday and Friday. Thursday seems to have the 
better chances of convection developing along the frontal boundary 
with EML(Elevated Mixed Layer) not as warm. On Friday, the EML will 
become more stout which reduces chances of storms developing over 
central and eastern Kansas. Better chances of storms will be north 
of the EML across Nebraska on Friday. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Confidence is increasing for an active severe weather pattern along 
with possible flooding for Kansas during the upcoming weekend. 
Models remain in good agreement showing a deeper than normal upper
trough over the southwestern states this weekend, with a stalled 
out frontal boundary beneath decent southwest winds aloft over 
the region. A lead short wave looks to eject out into Kansas 
during the day on Saturday which should ignite thunderstorms along
the frontal boundary. Severe weather is likely as models show a 
very unstable airmass over the region. Meanwhile, a second round 
of severe storms/possible flooding looks to continue on Sunday for
Kansas, as main upper trough axis lifts northeast and interacts 
with the very unstable airmass/lingering front. 

Depending on timing of the upper level trough, Monday and Tuesday 
could be fairly quiet weather or if the system is slowed down by the 
models then storms could linger into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Scattered convection will continue to percolate from Wichita
east-southeast across the central Flint Hills and southeast 
Kansas overnight. Meanwhile a strong to severe linear complex will
move east-southeast along the Kansas/Oklahoma border, affecting 
the southern row or two of counties into south central Kansas 
until about 08z. Stratus cigs will lower from MVFR to IFR across 
central Kansas with MVFR cigs developing across southern Kansas as
well by dawn. The stratus cigs will gradually improve through 
MVFR into the afternoon on Wednesday with VFR all areas by late 
afternoon/early evening.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    78  64  88  70 /  10  10  10  10 
Hutchinson      77  63  88  69 /  10  10  10  10 
Newton          77  63  87  70 /  20  10  10  20 
ElDorado        77  63  86  70 /  20  10  10  10 
Winfield-KWLD   78  65  88  70 /  10  10   0  10 
Russell         78  63  89  67 /  10  10  10  20 
Great Bend      79  64  89  67 /  10   0  10  10 
Salina          77  62  89  70 /  20  10  20  20 
McPherson       77  63  87  69 /  10  10  10  20 
Coffeyville     80  64  88  71 /  30  10  10  10 
Chanute         78  62  87  70 /  30  10  10  20 
Iola            77  62  86  70 /  30  10  10  20 
Parsons-KPPF    79  64  87  70 /  30  10  10  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...KED