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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 172357
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
657 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

A ridge is positioned over Hudson Bay to the Northern Plains while 
there are troughs over the eastern third of the U.S. and the 
Northern Plains to the Front Range. The western trough is making a 
northeast track. Convection has started to develop this afternoon in 
eastern Colorado. Locally heat is the word of the day. Wichita and 
Salina have officially hit 100 degrees for the first time this
year. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Highlights/concern: Persistent heat to cap off the week

Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect thru Saturday afternoon

The trough off to the west combined with a push of warm air 
advection are have developed convection this afternoon along the 
Front Range. A generally eastward track of the storms with this 
northeast moving system will bring activity into northwest Kansas 
and Nebraska. As mentioned in the previous discussion, it is 
possible that the storms could flirt with central Kansas this 
evening/tonight. Therefore slight chances remain in the forecast for 
this evening. A storm that moves into the area may be strong with 
small hail and gusty winds.  

There is no doubt that the heat has been turned on high. High 
temperatures will remain from 95 to 105 degrees to end the work 
week. Humidity should add to the level of discomfort with values of 
105 to 110. One factor that may be in the positive column would be 
the winds thanks to a bit of mixing with breezy speeds of 15 to 20 
mph. Overnight temperatures will only drop to the mid to upper 70s. 
Russell could in fact set record warm lows on Friday and Saturday. 
The rest of the official climate sites have warm lows in the lower 
80s for most of this period.

Heat precautions need to be taken especially with this first 
day of higher temperatures. Multiple days of triple digit heat 
reinforce the importance of staying hydrated. Avoid working 
outside during the heat of the day if possible. If you work 
outdoors, make sure to take additional breaks in the shade or air 
conditioning. Elderly and children are at the greatest risk to be 
impacted by the heat. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

A trough will move along the Canadian/U.S. border while a southern 
feature sits over eastern Colorado and northern New Mexico. These 
two will join forces this weekend. The system is anticipated to drop 
a front through Kansas on Sunday. Confidence is increasing with this 
system and respective available moisture as well as forcing to bring 
chances of showers and thunderstorms starting Saturday night in 
central Kansas based on the frontal position. As this boundary 
pushes southeast, the chances of precipitation will progress in that 
direction Sunday evening/night. There is some instability which 
could provide the opportunity for strong storms. Stay tuned for 
chances in what some may consider to be needed rain.

Relief is insight next week as cooler air is ushered in behind the 
front, and a ridge builds off to the west. Highs to start next week 
are expected to be in the upper 80s which does fall below the 
seasonal climatological normal by roughly five to six degrees. There 
might be slight fluctuations in these temperatures, but a cool down 
is anticipated. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Breezy S to SW winds will continues for a few more hours, before 
diminishing late this evening and overnight. Expect the surface 
winds to pick up again near the end of the TAF period for the 
afternoon hours on Thu.

High plains convection will diminish as it treks east into central 
KS.  At this time feel that a warm elevated mixed layer will lead to 
to the convection ending before it reaches central KS, so will not 
go with a VCTS mention for KRSL or KGBD just yet.  

Expect some LLWS overnight at most locations as winds at 2,000 ft 
approach 40 kts out the southwest.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77 100  79 100 /   0   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      77 101  79 101 /  10   0   0   0 
Newton          77  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0 
ElDorado        77  98  78  98 /   0   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   77  98  79  98 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         75 104  78 105 /  20   0   0   0 
Great Bend      76 103  78 103 /  10   0   0   0 
Salina          78 103  80 103 /  10   0  10   0 
McPherson       77 100  79 100 /  10   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     76  96  78  96 /   0   0   0   0 
Chanute         76  96  77  96 /   0   0   0   0 
Iola            76  96  77  96 /   0   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    76  96  78  96 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...Ketcham