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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 251122
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

A decoupled boundary layer, light surface winds and mostly clear 
skies (other than thin high clouds) will support patchy to areas 
of radiation fog through early this morning, mainly along/east of 
the KS Turnpike corridor. Currently not expecting a dense fog 
advisory, but will continue monitoring observational trends.

A potent shortwave and associated strong cold front will drive 
southeast across the region today. Degree of forcing may be enough
for a few showers this morning across portions of central and 
north- central KS, mainly along/northwest Great Bend to Salina. 
Strong/gusty north winds will overspread the region in wake of the
cold front, along with slightly falling temperatures. into the 
upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

Quiet weather is expected tonight, as high pressure slides east 
across Mid-America. For Friday, deepening lee troughing will 
support strengthening southerly winds, along with temperatures 
warming well into the 70s for most.

Shower/thunderstorm chances are expected to increase Friday 
night/early Saturday, as strong 850-700mb isentropic ascent and 
moisture transport commence ahead of an approaching shortwave and 
associated strong cold front. Expected moisture/instability is 
fairly marginal, although degree of forcing may support a few 
strong storms capable of sub-severe hail/wind. In wake of the cold
front, strong/gusty north winds are expected Saturday, along with
slightly cooler temperatures, especially across the northern half
of KS.

Kleinsasser

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Thunderstorm chances look to increase across the forecast area 
once again Sunday evening/night, as strong 850-700mb isentropic 
ascent and moisture transport commence ahead of another Northern 
Plains shortwave and associated approaching cold frontal zone. 
Magnitude of model-progged moisture, elevated instability and 
cloud-bearing shear could support a strong/severe storm threat, 
with the main threats being damaging winds and large hail.

The weather pattern looks to remain active/wet/stormy from Monday
through at least Wed night/Thu, as a longwave trough becomes 
established across the western CONUS, ejecting various shortwaves 
northeast over Mid-America. Meanwhile, the Sunday night cold front
will likely drive south of the forecast area by Monday, 
especially if an expansive thunderstorm complex develops Sunday 
night. If this verifies, the further south frontal solution would 
limit widespread organized severe thunderstorm potential across 
the forecast area due to decreasing instability north of the 
frontal zone. However, model consensus suggests strong isentropic 
ascent and moisture transport north of the boundary ahead of 
potent shortwave energy, which would support off-and-on 
thunderstorm clusters across the forecast area, mainly Monday 
night through Tuesday night. Degree of elevated instability and 
cloud-bearing shear may support strong to marginally severe 
storms, along with heavy rainfall potential. Regarding the heavy
rainfall potential...GEFS QPF percentiles supports the possibility
of anomalously high rainfall early to mid next week.

Western CONUS troughing and associated central/southern Plains 
wobbly frontal zone may not clear the region until Wed night or 
Thu, resulting in potential wet/stormy weather until that time.

Temperature-wise, a further south frontal position in concert 
with increased clouds and periodic showers/storms should support 
relatively coolish weather Mon-Tue, with the latest deterministic 
GFS and ECMWF runs supporting 50s-60s for daytime highs. Did not
go quite that cool at this point, but instead started trending
down.

Kleinsasser

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Light winds and patchy fog prevailed across much of south central
and southeast KS this morning. Meanwhile, a cold front was
bisecting central KS. This front will make steady progress south
and east shifting winds to the north with winds gusts to around 30
knots anticipated this afternoon. LIFR and VLIFR will be short-
lived with VFR returning by 14-15Z. Winds will quickly diminish
this evening as high pressure settles south across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  45  75  55 /  10   0  10  40 
Hutchinson      71  43  75  55 /  10   0  10  30 
Newton          72  44  74  54 /  10   0  10  40 
ElDorado        75  44  73  54 /  10   0   0  50 
Winfield-KWLD   75  44  74  56 /  10   0  10  40 
Russell         71  44  76  55 /  20   0  10  20 
Great Bend      71  43  77  55 /  20   0  10  20 
Salina          71  43  75  56 /  10   0  10  30 
McPherson       71  43  74  55 /  10   0  10  30 
Coffeyville     77  45  74  55 /  10  10   0  40 
Chanute         77  45  73  54 /  10   0   0  40 
Iola            76  45  72  54 /  10   0   0  40 
Parsons-KPPF    76  45  74  55 /  10   0   0  40 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM