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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 222346
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
546 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

A potent mid/upper trough moving over the Southwest today is 
progged to race north and east lifting negatively tilted across 
the Central Plains states on Saturday.

Tonight...Should see a fairly widespread drizzle and fog tonight with
isentropic upglide persisting with some light rain and perhaps
some isolated thunderstorms with some weak elevated instability. 

Saturday...Precipitation will rapidly expand in coverage during 
the morning hours on Saturday as the mid/upper trough emerges 
over the Southern and Central Plains states. There is strong 
support for a well developed TROWAL airstream impacting much 
of our central Kansas counties, especially during the 15Z-22Z 
timeframe where blizzard conditions are expected to develop as 
the northwest wind rapidly increases during the afternoon hours. 
We are expecting a very favorable response to the increasing 
large-scale forcing for ascent with negative EPV within the TROWAL 
airstream and strong omega through the dendritic snow growth 
region resulting in a 6-10 inch snowfall with locally higher 
amounts possible, especially along and north of a line from near 
Great Bend to Ellsworth to the extreme northwest corner of Saline 
county. One negative factor may be the progressive nature of the 
heaviest activity with narrow window of 5 to perhaps 7 hours where
we expect to see the most intense snowfall rates where 1-2+ inch 
per hour snowfall rates are anticipated. This window of 
opportunity is expected between 10AM-4PM. A very sharp snowfall 
gradient is anticipated across central Kansas and this line may 
wobble a bit leading to large differences in snowfall across short
distances. As wind speeds increase during the late morning and 
early afternoon hours, blizzard conditions are expected to develop
impacting portions and central Kansas and a blizzard warning will
be issued where confidence is highest. Further south, rain and 
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be possible, especially 
early in the period before the mid-level dry slot rotates into 
southeast KS limiting precipitation during the afternoon hours. 
This system should lift north and east of the area by early 
evening with impacts quickly dissipating.

Sunday-Monday...Modified Canadian air will arrive in the wake of this 
storm leading to below normal temperatures on Sun likely 
lingering into early next week while a mid/upper ridge amplifies 
across the Central Great Basin and Rockies. We may see some 
elevated fire weather conditions on Sun, but recent rain and 
higher relative humidities should help temper fire weather 
concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

A progressive northwest mid/upper flow regime is
anticipated through the period which will lead to another blast of
Canadian air toward the middle of the week with below normal
temperatures and minimal chances for meaningful precipitation
prevailing through much of the period. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

Significant aviation impacts are expected over the next 24 hours
across the area, including LIFR clouds, rain, and even blizzard
conditions in central Kansas that will greatly reduce
visibilities.

Increasing moisture will lead to diminishing cloud heights
throughout the evening and tonight. A few spotty showers with an
occasional rumble of thunder have developed in south central
Kansas this evening and they continue to track off to the
northeast. Therefore, have included VCSH mention in the TAFs for
KICT and KHUT this evening to account for this.

LIFR cloud ceilings and visibilities will work into the area
overnight, and these will likely stick around at least through the
morning. Rain is anticipated to move in after 6Z area wide. 

The major aviation concern during the period, however, will come
to central Kansas (especially at KRSL, KGBD, and KSLN) tomorrow
when rain transitions to snow. Very strong winds and heavy snow 
will combine to create blizzard conditions in these areas. 
Visibilities are likely to be greatly reduced (near zero at 
times). KSLN, KGBD, and KRSL are under a blizzard warning 
beginning at 15z throughout the remainder of the period. 

Frequent amendments are possible over the next 24 hours as 
conditions deteriorate, so stay tuned for updates.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

Southwest winds are expected to increase significantly during the
afternoon hours on Sat for areas generally southeast of the KS
Turnpike as a powerful low pressure system moves out into the
area. This will elevate the grassland fire danger in the very high
category Sat afternoon. Wind speeds in the 30-40 mph range will
allow the GFDI to increase, but higher relative humidity and
recent rainfall should limit fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    38  46  26  45 /  80 100  10   0 
Hutchinson      37  37  23  41 /  90 100  10   0 
Newton          37  41  26  41 /  80 100  10   0 
ElDorado        38  47  29  45 /  80 100  10   0 
Winfield-KWLD   40  51  26  48 /  70 100   0   0 
Russell         32  33  20  34 /  90 100  10   0 
Great Bend      34  34  20  38 /  90 100  10   0 
Salina          34  34  24  36 /  80 100  20   0 
McPherson       36  36  23  39 /  80 100  20   0 
Coffeyville     43  57  30  50 /  80 100   0   0 
Chanute         40  55  28  47 /  80  90  10   0 
Iola            40  53  28  45 /  80  90  10   0 
Parsons-KPPF    42  56  29  49 /  80 100  10   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning from 9 AM Saturday to midnight CST Saturday 
night for KSZ032-033-047>050.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to midnight CST 
Saturday night for KSZ051-052-067.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...TAV
FIRE WEATHER...MWM