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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 192338
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

A heat advisory remains in place over most of the area. An 
Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for portions of southeast 
KS.

A strong ridge of high pressure will stick around for one more day 
across the Central Plains before it begins breaking down late 
tomorrow night. Southerly flow at the surface will continue to 
advect upper 70s dew points into the region tomorrow. A slight 
increase in 1000-850 thickness values near the 1460-1470m mark 
will support temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 for much of the 
area. Thus heat indices are expected rise to the 105-110 range 
across much of the area. Increased confidence across portions of 
southeast KS for heat indices meeting or exceeding 110 has 
prompted the Excessive Heat Warning. 

A strong trough is progged to begin its swing down from Manitoba
through the Great Lakes Region Wednesday which will help push a
sagging weak cold front into the region Wednesday and bring some
relief to the high temperatures, with highs around 90. A mid level
shortwave will also move through the area Wednesday which will
support chances for scattered showers and storms throughout the
day. Chances for showers and storms will increase overnight
Wednesday into Thursday as strong 850-700mb warm advection
persists through the overnight hours. Scattered showers will
likely linger through the day Thursday with highs held to the low
to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms will 
continue throughout the weekend with weak northwesterly flow
progged over the area with subtle shortwaves likely moving over
the region. There remains some model disagreements as to the
timing of any precip but will be refined with further issuances.
Expect weekend temperatures to be near seasonable normals, in the
mid to upper 80s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Relatively few aviation concerns are expected over the next 24
hours across central, south central, and southeast Kansas. As the
previous aviation discussion mentioned, only a few diurnal 
cumulus and patchy thin cirrus are expected. Southerly surface 
flow will persist as well. VFR flight conditions are expected to 
remain in place through the night and the day tomorrow. Wind speed
cross sections hint at some weak low-level wind shear potential
overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning, but confidence in
low-level wind shear is low at this time. Will continue to monitor
the potential and update with the 06z TAFs if needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76  99  75  90 /   0  10  20  30 
Hutchinson      75 100  73  90 /  10  10  30  30 
Newton          75  98  72  90 /   0  10  30  40 
ElDorado        76  98  73  90 /   0  10  20  40 
Winfield-KWLD   76  98  75  91 /  10  10  20  30 
Russell         73 101  70  90 /  10  10  40  40 
Great Bend      74 101  70  90 /  10  10  40  30 
Salina          76 101  72  90 /  10  10  40  50 
McPherson       75  99  72  90 /  10  10  40  40 
Coffeyville     76  96  75  92 /   0   0  10  30 
Chanute         75  95  73  90 /   0  10  20  40 
Iola            75  95  73  90 /  10  10  20  40 
Parsons-KPPF    75  95  74  90 /   0  10  20  30 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ098>100.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ033-048>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...TAV