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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 211659
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1159 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Another mild and breezy day is anticipated across the area today 
with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Breezy southerly winds may 
approach advisory levels at times, especially across the Flint 
Hills where the corridor of higher H85 wind speeds are progged 
during the afternoon hours when the deepest mixing will occur. 
We may also see an isolated evening or overnight storm, mainly 
across portions of our central Kansas counties. As you move south 
across south central Kansas the cap becomes more pronounced, 
likely precluding deep moist convection. However, across our 
central KS counties, a couple of storms may fire along the dryline
and/or the southward sagging cold front during the evening hours.
Point soundings indicate inverted-v profiles supporting some 
gusty winds with any storms that manage to develop. 

Monday-Tuesday...a cold front will make slow progress south and east 
across the area on Monday and we could see an isolated storm 
along the front during the afternoon hours across portions of 
southeast KS. However, models continue to show a pronounced cap 
around H7 with only marginal instability progged. Another 
shortwave trough will arrive across the area late Monday night 
into Tuesday, bringing more widespread showers and storms to much 
of southern Kansas. With limited insolation and some low level 
caa, highs will struggle to climb out of the lower 60s on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

A shortwave trough will pass south of the area on Wed-Thu with the 
higher probabilities of precipitation remaining south of our area
across the Southern Plains states. As we move through the 
remainder of the week, a progressive zonal flow is progged to 
develop which should keep the better quality moisture south of the
area. Temperatures will slowly moderate while remaining above 
normal as we move into the beginning of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Aviation concerns: 1) Gusty winds through this evening; 2)
Isolated TSRA this evening; 3) LLWS this evening/tonight.

Low pressure over northwestern Kansas will lift northeast through
tonight as a cold front drops quickly south out of Nebraska. A
tight pressure gradient east of the low combined with good mixing
will allow gusty winds to continue into early this evening
areawide. Gusts will approach 35-40kt, especially along/east of 
the KS Turnpike. As the cold front approaches, isolated TSRA may
develop over central KS and I have kept a VCTS mention in. Across
south-central KS, an isolated TSRA cannot be ruled out along the
dryline, but confidence in this occurring is much lower compared
to further north and for now I opted to leave VCTS out of the TAFs
there. Amendments are likely in later TAFs as TSRA initiation and
evolution becomes more clear. Any TSRA that does develop will 
pose a threat of 50-55kt gusts and hail. Any storms that form will
move off to the E/NE later tonight, with lingering low/mid clouds
possible, especially behind the front. Regardless of any TSRA, 
LLWS is likely along/east of the Turnpike as a S/SW LLJ 
strengthens.

Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the upcoming week,
especially in areas across south central and southeast KS that
received beneficial rainfall recently and green-up is well
underway.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    83  57  76  50 /  10  10  10  60 
Hutchinson      83  55  73  47 /  10  20  10  50 
Newton          82  57  73  47 /  10  20  10  50 
ElDorado        83  60  76  49 /  10  10  10  50 
Winfield-KWLD   83  59  77  51 /   0  10  10  70 
Russell         89  52  67  43 /  20  40  10  10 
Great Bend      89  51  69  44 /  20  20   0  20 
Salina          85  56  72  47 /  10  40  10  20 
McPherson       83  54  72  47 /  10  30  10  40 
Coffeyville     83  62  77  54 /   0  10  10  50 
Chanute         82  61  76  52 /   0  10  20  40 
Iola            82  61  76  51 /  10  10  20  40 
Parsons-KPPF    82  62  76  54 /   0  10  20  50 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...RM
FIRE WEATHER...MWM