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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 240542
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1242 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Thunderstorms with heavy rain, flooding, and severe weather will
continue to threaten the region through the Memorial Day weekend
and possibly all the way into the middle of next week. Given the
recent rains, some significant flash flooding will be possible at
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Hand analysis and satellite imagery early this afternoon depict a 
surface low/triple point over the TX Panhandle, with a warm front 
extending to the east along the KS/OK border. Aloft, an upper low is 
spinning over the Great Basin, with an embedded s/w moving through 
WRN CO. 

Models differ on how far north the warm front will get through this 
evening, which will play an important role in the severe weather 
hazards. Just south of the warm front is a broad area of low to mid 
70s dewpoints. Through this evening, the low-level jet will continue 
to increase, leading to increasing WAA and moisture transport. Of 
note, blended TPW products show an impressive surge of moisture 
riding north through TX at this time and is poised to reach Kansas 
by this evening.

The increasing WAA/moisture transport combined with a glancing 
influence from the above-mentioned s/w should foster several rounds 
of thunderstorms through tonight. Storms that develop over/near the 
TX/OK Panhandles may have a tendency to build/propagate ENE along
the northward-advancing warm front. North of the warm front, 
thinking the greatest threat will be large hail (with some 
significantly large hail possible near the warm front where 
instability will be maximized). Near and to the south of the warm 
front is where SFC- based convection will be possible. Backed SFC 
winds in this area combined with a general veering profile aloft 
should support a tornado threat into this evening. Given the low 
level shear/helicity forecast, a conditional threat of strong 
tornadoes may develop, especially if any discrete or semi-discrete
cells can develop. Watch for meso-updates later if this threat 
becomes more likely. At this time, thinking the tornado risk will 
be focused over south-central KS.

Regarding the storm mode, shear vectors will tend to be oriented
more parallel with the frontal boundary, likely leading to more of
a tendency for upscale growth with time. However, as the warm
front continues to push north, it may begin to be oriented more SW
to NE, and be oriented a bit more perpendicular to the deep layer
shear. Should this occur, discrete or semi-discrete cells would be
more probable. Regardless of initial storm mode, upscale growth 
into multiple clusters/small MCS' seems plausible overnight, with 
an increased risk of flash flooding. The Flash Flood Watch was 
expanded east some to account for a bit more eastward propagation 
of the zone of convection and we'll continue to refine this area 
if needed. Given the surge of moisture incoming and interacting 
with the frontal boundary in the area, enhanced rainfall 
rates/amounts are likely, potentially focused from near Medicine 
Lodge up through portions of central /south-central KS. Given the 
recent rainfall and wet soils, it won't take much for flash 
flooding. The setup could lead to some significant/higher-impact 
flash flooding.

The convective evolution through tonight will play an important role 
in tomorrow's thunderstorm/severe threat. Favorable deep layer shear 
combined with modest instability within the frontal zone could favor 
some strong to severe storms, although the threat may tend to be 
more conditional based on early-day convection. Temperatures were 
cooled some on Friday as tonight's convection may tend to limit how 
much heating can occur.

On Saturday, a stronger s/w is forecast to cross the region with a 
renewed potential of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. 
It could be that convection forms on the High Plains, then pushes 
E/SE across the area. We'll continue to refine the severe potential 
in the coming days.

Martin

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Beyond Saturday, SW flow aloft will continue across the Plains with 
embedded shortwaves traversing the area with a continued risk of 
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Each wave will be able to tap into 
an unstable and very moist environment, which will likely keep a 
continued risk of flooding and severe weather going through at least 
early next week. A stronger s/w may finally push through Tuesday or 
Wednesday with at least a temporary break in the active weather. The 
main takeaway here is the active pattern continues and flooding will 
only worsen, with not much of a break in the rain.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Periodic rounds of thunderstorms will continue moving northeast
across the region overnight, mainly northwest of the Turnpike 
corridor. Additionally, a strong low-level jet will support low-
level wind shear overnight. This corridor for scattered 
thunderstorms will shift east some for Friday through Friday 
evening, generally along and either side of the Turnpike and Flint
Hills corridors. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear likely 
again during the afternoon-evening hours. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

A heightened flash flood risk may develop this evening through the
overnight hours as multiple rounds of thunderstorms move over the
same general area. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
convective evolution, but given the recent rains, wet soils, and
high moisture content, the potential of very efficient rainfall
exists. Where storms train over the same area, we could be looking
at 3-5"+. If storms end up more progressive, the amounts could be
lower overall. But, with very low flash flood guidance, it won't
take much to cause flooding. Aside from the flash flood threat, 
river flooding will continue to be a significant and long-lasting
threat well into next week.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  75  67  81 /  50  60  50  30 
Hutchinson      64  75  66  81 /  70  50  50  30 
Newton          65  75  67  81 /  60  60  50  30 
ElDorado        68  76  69  80 /  40  60  50  30 
Winfield-KWLD   69  78  69  80 /  40  60  40  30 
Russell         55  77  64  82 / 100  30  40  20 
Great Bend      56  77  64  82 / 100  30  30  30 
Salina          64  77  66  83 / 100  50  60  30 
McPherson       64  76  66  81 /  80  50  60  30 
Coffeyville     70  83  69  82 /  10  30  20  20 
Chanute         69  81  69  81 /  20  40  30  40 
Iola            69  81  69  81 /  20  40  40  40 
Parsons-KPPF    70  82  69  82 /  20  30  30  30 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...ADK
HYDROLOGY...RM