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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 181715
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1215 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

A shortwave trough over Saskatchewan this morning is progged to
dig southward across the Northern Plains today while emerging
across the Central Plains tonight. Isentropic upglide/low-mid lvl
warm air advection will increase ahead of this system bringing
increasing chances for rain tonight, especially across our central
Kansas counties along the nose of the LLJ. Meanwhile, another
seasonable day is expected across the region today with highs in
the 50s/low 60s. Some mid and upper level clouds may keep some
locations a few degrees cooler compared to the past couple of
days. Chances for precipitation will shift east and southeastward
across the area on Tue through Tue night while gradually
diminishing from west to east as we move through the day on Wed as
large-scale forcing for subsidence arrives in the wake of the
trough. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated Tue-Wed with highs
mostly in the 50s/low 60s and lows in the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

An amplified mid/upper flow is progged at the beginning of the period 
with ridging across the central CONUS. Chances for showers and 
thunderstorms will begin to increase toward the end of the week 
and into the weekend as a series of slow moving mid/upper troughs 
rotate through the mean H5 trough situated across the 
Rockies/Central Plains states. A wet and unsettled pattern is 
anticipated through the upcoming weekend with mild temperatures 
and an increased potential for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

VFR forecast at all sites throughout the period. Increasing 
moisture will lead to lowering clouds throughout the period. 
Surface low will move in the vicinity of KGBD near end of 
forecast. Light precipitation possible at KRSL, KSLN, KGBD but 
chances are too low to mention at this time. MVFR ceilings 
possible just beyond the end of the forecast in central KS just 
behind the front. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Relatively low fire weather concerns are expected through the
upcoming week with multiple opportunities for rain and no
intrusions of dry/windy conditions. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  40  59  38 /   0   0  30  40 
Hutchinson      58  39  57  35 /   0  10  30  20 
Newton          58  39  55  36 /   0  10  40  30 
ElDorado        59  39  60  38 /   0   0  40  50 
Winfield-KWLD   62  39  63  39 /   0   0  40  60 
Russell         54  37  49  31 /  10  20  30  10 
Great Bend      54  38  51  31 /  10  10  30  10 
Salina          56  39  52  34 /   0  20  30  10 
McPherson       57  39  55  35 /   0  10  30  20 
Coffeyville     62  39  65  42 /   0   0  10  60 
Chanute         60  39  63  40 /   0   0  20  70 
Iola            59  39  62  40 /   0   0  20  70 
Parsons-KPPF    61  39  64  41 /   0   0  10  70 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...MWM