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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 251153
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
653 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Allowed both severe thunderstorm and flash flood watches to expire
on schedule with diminishing threat of both flooding (outside of 
existing warnings) and severe storms. Earlier made an update to to
the hazardous weather outlook based on closer look at severe 
weather parameters for tomorrow. Extreme instability is forecast 
by both GFS/NAM by late afternoon and into the evening with a 
small but probably breakable cap given forcing on cold front. 
Anticipate storms will be limited to initiation in the vicinity of
front, with rapid development of discrete supercells that should 
transition into a line fairly quickly. Very large hail, damaging 
winds are likely and isolated tornadoes are possible with the 
supercells. Once storms transition into a line, damaging winds 
will be the primary threat. -Howerton

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Today:
Storms should continue as progressive upper trough moves east. May
see storms linger a bit across south central KS along western
edge, but with exiting upper low moving, these should wane by
midday west of I-35. Will keep flash flood watch going until 
scheduled expiration and reassess whether an expansion/extension 
is warranted. 

Tonight:
Precipitation should end by 0000 UTC or shortly thereafter in far
SE KS. With considerable boundary layer moisture lingering and
south-southeast winds, anticipate widespread stratus to develop
along/east of Flint Hills. Not as clear cut to the west given
models' bias to over forecast post front upslope clouds/precipitation.

Monday-Tuesday:
Not as keen on precipitation Monday morning, but with front likely
moving through in the afternoon, chances look good for another
round of at least strong if not severe storms with cold front.
Expect this to make a quicker than forecast exit Monday evening in
southeast KS and only lingered into Tuesday for consistency.
Surface high pressure should help shut down precipitation chance
with front well into OK on Tuesday. However had to keep some low 
pops across southeast KS Tuesday-Tuesday night for consistency. 
-Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Surface ridge will slowly move east with lingering west-north 
west flow aloft. Followed the trend started yesterday by the day 
shift of nixing precipitation early in this period and trimmed
more to the limit of consistency, although still likely overdone 
early. In fact chances late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning
may be more likely in western half of the area than the east, as  
very weak warm air advection and 850MB moisture gradient is 
forecast but neither are particularly impressive. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Upper circulation evident in radar loop, with widespread stratiform
rain/embedded thunderstorms covering over much of the forecast
area. Expect this to translate east with gradual clearing during
the day. The main issue is transient IFR/LIFR ceilings that have
developed near northwestern edge of stratiform precipitation - 
emphasis on transient. KCNU will likely have precipitation 
lingering well into the afternoon. Focus late in the period will 
be the return of boundary layer moisture, with locations east of 
the Flint Hills most likely to get MVFR if not IFR ceilings
before daybreak. Models are disparate whether low clouds will 
develop across the remainder of the forecast area. At this point,
opted only to go with scattered decks at KICT, KHUT and KSLN, 
with ceiling at KCNU. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    81  70  89  64 /  90  10  20  20 
Hutchinson      81  70  86  62 /  70   0  20  20 
Newton          80  70  86  62 /  80  10  30  20 
ElDorado        79  70  87  63 /  90  10  30  30 
Winfield-KWLD   80  71  90  65 / 100  10  30  40 
Russell         83  70  83  59 /  10  10  20  10 
Great Bend      83  70  83  60 /  20   0  20  10 
Salina          82  71  85  61 /  40  10  30  10 
McPherson       80  70  85  61 /  50   0  30  20 
Coffeyville     79  71  90  67 /  90  10  30  70 
Chanute         78  70  88  65 /  90  10  40  60 
Iola            78  70  88  64 /  90  10  40  60 
Parsons-KPPF    78  71  89  66 /  90  10  30  70 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PJH
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...PJH