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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 180008
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
708 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

The main focus in the short term is the potential for severe 
thunderstorms beginning late this afternoon/early evening in south 
central and southeast Kansas. As the afternoon progresses, 
forcing for ascent and instability are expected to continue 
increasing as the cap erodes along and ahead of the cold front. 
Thus, expect convective initiation to increase in coverage across 
northern Texas, western Oklahoma, and into south central Kansas
over the next few hours. Mesoanalysis and latest CAMs suggest 
that the timing from the previous forecast still looks good, with 
discrete cells beginning to form sometime near 23-00z and 
increasing in coverage for a few hours after that. The primary 
threat, at least in in initial development this evening, will be 
the potential for large hail and damaging winds. See the 
Mesoscale Discussion above for more details.

After midnight and into the early morning hours tomorrow, the threat 
for severe storms will be winding down in south central Kansas as 
the axis of greatest low level moisture flux convergence and CAPE 
shifts into southeast Kansas. By this time, the primary storm mode 
should transition to become more linear. Bulk shear will still be 
plentiful with models suggesting values in excess of 60kts in spots. 
However, with bulk shear vectors oriented parallel to the frontal 
boundary and a more linear storm mode, thinking damaging wind will 
be the primary threat overnight in southeast Kansas though storms 
early in this period do have the potential to produce large hail as 
well. Localized flooding from heavy rain will remain a possibility 
behind the front overnight in south central Kansas with the flooding 
threat slowly transitioning to southeast Kansas during the early 
morning hours. By mid-morning, the front and associated low pressure 
will have moved well east of the area and rain chances will come to 
an end in southeast Kansas.

Elsewhere tomorrow, as the upper trough digs across the Plains and 
Mississippi Valley, diurnal showers will be possible in central and 
south central Kansas. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out 
with some weak instability present during the afternoon, but not 
expecting any severe storms with this activity. Otherwise, expect 
cooler temperatures than were observed today, though they will be 
close to normal for the time of year. 

Overnight tomorrow night, the deep upper trough axis will make its 
way east of mid-America and much drier air will allow for clear 
skies Friday as high pressure moves across the Southern Plains. By 
Saturday, a southerly wind regime will return to central, south 
central, and southeast Kansas and allow temperatures to warm up into 
the upper 70s to near 80 across the area, setting up for a nice 
start to the weekend.

-Vaughan

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Heading into the first half of next week, a more unsettled patter 
will return to the area with several upper shortwaves bringing 
multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the period. 
The first of these looks to be Sunday afternoon-night and then again 
on Monday evening-Tuesday, bringing chances of showers and 
thunderstorms. Though some stronger storms cannot be ruled out, the 
chances for severe storms continues to look rather low at this time. 
Temperatures throughout this period will be right around normal for 
the time of year. Of note, by day 7 (Wednesday) there is quite a bit 
of disagreement amongst models regarding the timing of mid-week 
precip chances. This also could have a big impact on forecast 
temperatures (for example, the Canadian suggests highs in the 50s
on Wednesday and holding on to precip much longer, while the 
quicker ECMWF pushes temperatures into the 70s). For now, have 
taken a "middle-of-the-road" approach and used a blended 
solution, but note some variation should be expected over the next
several days as confidence in this period is rather low at this 
point.

-Vaughan

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

At 23Z (+)TSRA, a few of which are producing quarter-sized hail, 
continue to fire across Harper, Nrn Sumner/extreme Srn Sedgwick,
to KEWK. The (+)TSRA are along & just behind a cold front that 
extends from NW MO, thru KWLD, to between KAVK & KWDG. The TSRA
are movg NE ~25kts & will impact KICT til ~03Z. (+)TSRA will also
impact KCNU later this eve 02Z-05Z & may be SVR with quarter-sized
hail, a few gusts ~52kts & +RA that'll reduce vsbys to ~3SM. With
the front exiting SE KS 05-06Z as a rapidly deepening upper-deck
wave moves slowly E across C TX later tonight & Thu morning, the
TSRA would clear SE KS ~08Z. MVFR cigs from 1,500-2,500ft are no 
doubt certain where +TSRA occur. As the front pushes SE, winds
that'll shift to the N would increase to 17-22kts with gusts ~30
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

With widespread rainfall expected this afternoon and overnight
across south central and southeast Kansas, fire weather concerns
over the next few days will be minimal. Heading into Saturday,
temperatures will warm back up but recent rainfall should prevent
any major fire weather concerns. Additional rainfall chances next
week will keep fire danger in check through at least mid-week.

-Vaughan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  66  42  68 /  80  20  10   0 
Hutchinson      48  65  40  68 /  50  20  10   0 
Newton          47  64  40  66 /  70  20  10   0 
ElDorado        49  65  41  66 /  80  20  10   0 
Winfield-KWLD   50  66  42  67 /  80  20  10   0 
Russell         43  65  39  69 /  10  30   0   0 
Great Bend      44  65  38  69 /  10  30   0   0 
Salina          47  65  40  68 /  20  30  10   0 
McPherson       47  65  39  67 /  40  20  10   0 
Coffeyville     51  65  43  67 /  80  30  10   0 
Chanute         50  64  43  66 /  80  20  10   0 
Iola            50  63  42  65 /  80  20  10   0 
Parsons-KPPF    51  64  43  66 /  80  20  10   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...TAV