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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 192137
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
437 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 435 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

There will be multiple opportunities for thunderstorms through the 
weekend and potentially into early next week, some of which will be 
strong to severe. In addition to the storms, increasing temperatures 
and humidity may lead to increasing heat-related concerns as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 435 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

A well-defined, but relatively weak, surface low was located over 
northern Missouri this afternoon, with a cool/stationary front 
extending SW through central OK and on into the TX Panhandle. The 
greatest instability will be focused south of that boundary through 
tonight, and is where the better severe weather threat will reside. 
That said, an upper level PV anomaly moving out of the Rockies has 
lead to a broken band of thunderstorms over western KS. Thinking 
these storms will tend to propagate more southeasterly along a NW to 
SE-oriented instability gradient. These storms may clip our far 
western counties (ie. west of I-135) late this afternoon or early 
this evening, posing primarily a gusty wind/hail threat. As storms 
approach our area, they will be facing a stabilizing boundary layer 
with the loss of daytime heating, so the threat of severe weather 
appears low for now.

Return flow develops overnight, with a brief period of easterly low 
level flow within a moist boundary layer and mostly clear skies. 
This could set the stage for some patchy fog and/or stratus tonight, 
but the flow turns south/southwest fairly quick, which may 
ultimately limit the threat.

The main concern in the short term will be the threat of severe 
weather Thursday night through the weekend. A frontal boundary over 
the NRN Plains today will settle south to near the I-70 corridor by 
Thursday night, then stall as low pressure develops over the central 
High Plains. Weak ripples within the zonal to SW flow aloft combined 
with moderate to strong instability and modest deep layer shear 
should support multiple opportunities for strong to severe 
convection through the weekend. As is often the case in these 
patterns, model guidance differs quite a bit. Seems the best model 
agreement is on some sort of MCS impacting portions of the area 
Thursday night, especially our I-70 counties. The evolution of that 
convection likely starts a chain reaction on future convective 
evolution and severe weather potential for Friday and Saturday. A 
larger MCS Thursday night could cause significant outflow to surge 
through the area for Friday. Not only does this factor in for the 
temp forecast Friday, but also for where future convection may 
initiate, if at all. On the flip side, a smaller MCS Thursday night 
could allow for hotter temps on Friday and an increased concern over 
dangerous heat indices, followed by an increased severe potential 
later Friday into Saturday. The main takeaway here is severe weather 
is likely at some point over the next few days, but pinpointing 
which day or time has the greatest threat is more problematic.

With dewpoints likely returning into the 70s for parts of the area, 
afternoon heat indices could approach dangerous levels as highs 
potential warm into the 90s Thursday and Friday. We will not plan on 
any heat-related products for now as there is too much uncertainty 
regarding thunderstorms and any impact on temps (as outlined
above).

Martin

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 435 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

For next week, SW flow aloft will remain in place as ridging 
attempts to amplify over or just east of the Plains. A stronger 
ridge could keep our area capped, but being on the edge of the ridge 
and with any potential wave ejecting out of the Rockies, we can't 
completely rule out a continued threat of strong/severe convection. 

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Primary aviation concerns: Low clouds, TSRA, LLWS

This afternoon, an area of low pressure was located over northern
Missouri with lingering low level moisture pinwheeling around the
low over Kansas. Low level drying will occur through tonight,
eventually leading to a decrease in the MVFR/low VFR CIGs. Prior
to that, a surface trough dropping south through the state may
help to initiate a few thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail.
That threat should diminish this evening. Overnight tonight, low
level moisture and initially light winds may support some BR/FG
potential, but confidence remains too low for a mention yet. Early
Thursday morning, there may be a brief window of opportunity for
some LLWS, but the threat looks marginal at this time.
Thunderstorms may once again be a concern late Thursday or
Thursday night, but that threat looks to be focused beyond the
current TAF cycle.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  90  72  94 /  10  10  10   0 
Hutchinson      64  91  71  94 /  10  10  10  10 
Newton          63  89  72  92 /  10  10  20  10 
ElDorado        63  88  71  91 /  10  10  20  10 
Winfield-KWLD   64  90  72  92 /  10   0  10  10 
Russell         62  90  69  92 /  20  20  30  10 
Great Bend      63  91  69  94 /  20  20  20  10 
Salina          62  91  71  94 /  10  20  40  10 
McPherson       63  90  71  93 /  10  10  20  10 
Coffeyville     65  89  73  91 /  10   0  20  10 
Chanute         63  87  72  89 /  10   0  20  10 
Iola            63  87  72  89 /  10  10  20  10 
Parsons-KPPF    64  88  72  90 /  10   0  20  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM