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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 220753
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
253 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Today-Tonight:
Relatively straightforward forecast as 850MB trough swings 
through southeast KS before daybreak, which should end any threat 
of precipitation in southeast KS. Cooler air will continue to 
spill into the area through tonight. 

Tuesday-Wednesday:
Surface high pressure moves across the area during this period.
Only minor concern is very slight potential for altocumulus
castellanus and or elevated showers/storms around daybreak
Wednesday in the vicinity of KRSL and KGBD. Chances at this point
are too low to mention. A gradual warmup is expected as the return
flow develops. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Axis of elevated moisture will be drift east Wednesday night and 
Thursday morning, with a small chance of showers/storms between 
0900-1500 UTC and roughly west of I-35. Probability still too low 
to mention, but will need to monitored over the next few days. 
Otherwise, fairly good agreement with GFS/ECMWF in long wave 
pattern evolution. By the weekend, the shortwave traversing the 
Northern Plains flattens the western ridge, setting up impressive 
diffluent upper flow across the Central Plains. This would 
seemingly support nocturnal storms rolling off the High Plains 
over the weekend. ECMWF/GFS diverge late in the period with the 
position of the surface front. The next front may just northwest 
of the area by the end of this period, but there are significant 
differences between the GFS/ECMWF on its location. -Howerton 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

A few scattered showers/thunderstorms will linger for a few more
hours across southeast Kansas. Otherwise, cold advection amidst
moist low-levels will contribute to patchy MVFR ceilings 
developing overnight and persisting into Monday morning for most 
areas, probably most widespread eastern and southeast Kansas. 
Breezy northeast winds will prevail areawide.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    83  61  82  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      83  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          81  59  80  59 /   0   0   0   0 
ElDorado        81  60  80  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   83  61  81  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         82  56  83  59 /   0   0   0  10 
Great Bend      82  57  83  59 /   0   0   0  10 
Salina          83  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       82  59  81  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     83  63  81  60 /  10   0   0   0 
Chanute         82  62  79  59 /  10  10   0   0 
Iola            81  61  79  59 /  10  10   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    81  62  80  60 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK