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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 212138
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
338 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Sunday night)...
Issued at 338 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

Weak wave and associated moisture advection leading to some 
sprinkles at best in portions of central Kansas. Continued 
lee cyclogenesis leads to increasing low-level moisture tonight 
into much of Friday with drizzle potential slowly ramping up. At 
least patchy freezing drizzle is possible for much of the area 
late tonight into early Friday with temps near freezing. Today's 
temps into the 40s for the most part may limit impacts of this 
potential light freezing precip. 

Main concerns still lie with Saturday and Saturday night with
potent upper wave rapidly crossing the region. Some differences on
tracks remain but have leaned closer to the more consistent ECMWF
for this forecast. Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms Friday
night into early Saturday transitions to snow quickly Saturday
across central Kansas with intense deformation zone in at least
weak static stability in the dendritic growth zone as NNW winds 
rapidly increase. 925 mb winds near 45 knots will support very 
strong winds accompanying and immediately following the snow for 
the potential for high impacts even with only limited snowfall. 
Have issued a Winter Storm Watch for roughly the northern half of 
the CWA with confidence in accumulations lower into south central 
Kansas. Winds diminish steadily Saturday night for steadily 
improving conditions.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...
Issued at 338 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

Surface ridging building in from the northwest and west to
northwest flow aloft leads to cool but drier conditions for much
of the work week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST THU FEB 21 2019

VFR conditions should be the rule for the next several hours other
than a potential brief MVFR visibility from light elevated 
precipitation in the RSL and GBD vicinities. Timing and
persistence of limiting stratus and -DZ and -FZDZ, but onset still
appears to be after 06Z. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

Widespread precipitation chances Friday through Saturday along
with continued below normal temperatures should keep fire danger
concerns to a minimum the next several days.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday 
evening for KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WFO TOP
LONG TERM....WFO TOP
AVIATION...WFO TOP
FIRE WEATHER...ADK