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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 240249
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
949 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Secondary shortwave currently spinning over SW KS will slowly move 
across the forecast area overnight.  Still lots of low level 
moisture continues over the area, so as this shortwave moves east 
across the area, think it could squeeze out a few sprinkles for 
portions of central and south central KS overnight.  So will send 
out an update to add a sprinkle mention.  Otherwise low clouds will 
continue across most of the southern KS overnight.  Areas that 
picked up some rainfall today across southern KS, may see some 
patchy fog by Wed morning, but vsbys will stay around 5SM so will 
not add this mention to the grids just yet.  

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Water vapor imagery shows upper low spinning over Sonora with
another upper impulse tracking slowly across south central KS. At
the surface, a stationary front extends from southern MO into
southern OK. 

Pockets of light rain will continue early this evening for areas
mainly southeast of the KS Turnpike as the upper impulse
continues to churn over central KS. By Wed morning, upper wave 
will be tracking across northern MO with southeast KS the only 
location in our forecast area maintaining some small rain chances.
The majority of the area will see plenty of sunshine and seasonal
temps for Wed with highs topping out in the 70 to 75 degree 
range.

The upper low that is currently situated over northwest Mex is 
expected to slide across central TX for Wed night into Thu. 
Confidence is high that the bulk of the showers and storms 
associated with this feature will stay south of KS. Even though we
maintain northerly low level flow Thu, high temps are expected to
be a few degrees above normal, but still quite comfortable. 
Northwest flow expected to setup over the Plains for Thu night 
into Fri with both the ECMWF and GFS agreeing on tracking some 
shortwave energy out of the Northern Rockies and across the 
northern/central Plains for Fri night into Sat morning. Current 
thinking is the majority of the more significant precip associated
with this feature should stay north of the forecast area Fri 
night. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Shortwave is expected to be exiting the Plains and approaching 
the Mid Mississippi Valley for start the weekend which should 
result in better rain chances north and east of the forecast area.
After Sat, medium range models start to diverge significantly. 
ECMWF remains much more robust in tracking a shortwave over the 
northern Plains with the GFS significantly weaker with this 
feature. At the surface this results in the ECMWF pushing a fairly
strong cold front through most of the forecast area Sun night 
into Mon. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps the front well north of the 
area for the same time frame and does have some support from the 
Canadian. These differences continue into Tue, so needless to 
say, confidence is very low at this time, but it does look like we
are getting into a more active pattern for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

MVFR to IFR cigs will continue across most of southern KS, as most 
of the lingering showers slowly end.  Think some stratus build down 
will occur for the KICT and KCNU tafs, in areas that saw rainfall 
earlier today.  Some of the short range models also hint as some 
patchy fog as well, so will go with some MVFR vsbys for the early 
morning hours for KICT and KCNU.  

The rest of central KS will see VFR conditions and light and 
variable winds.   

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  72  50  78 /  20  10  10   0 
Hutchinson      43  73  48  76 /  20   0  10   0 
Newton          44  71  49  75 /  20   0  10   0 
ElDorado        46  70  50  78 /  20  10  10  10 
Winfield-KWLD   46  70  51  78 /  20  10  10  10 
Russell         40  77  48  76 /  10   0   0   0 
Great Bend      41  76  47  76 /  10   0   0   0 
Salina          43  75  48  77 /  10   0   0   0 
McPherson       43  73  48  76 /  10   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     49  69  50  77 /  40  20  10  10 
Chanute         48  69  50  77 /  30  10  10  10 
Iola            49  69  50  77 /  30  10  10  10 
Parsons-KPPF    49  69  50  77 /  40  20  10  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...Ketcham