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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 211800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
100 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Currently have an upper trough extending from the Northern Rockies
into the Central Great Basin with southwest flow aloft over the
Plains. At the surface, trough extends from central SD into
eastern CO. Like last night, regional radar animation shows an
upper impulse generating showers over central OK.

Just like yesterday, won't be out of the question to see some
light showers or drizzle this morning for areas along and
southeast of the KS Turnpike as the upper impulse over central OK
lifts off to the northeast. This area is also situated under
moderate 850-700mb moisture transport. 

Robust convection is expected to develop late this afternoon along
a cold front which is anticipated to stretch from north of KDDC to
near KRSL and into south central Nebraska by 00z Sun. Current
thinking is that storms will develop by around 22z-23z along the
front and will quickly become severe. With 2,000-3,000J/kg of CAPE
and 0-6km shear in the 30-35kt range, hail to the size of golf
balls will be possible along with damaging downburst winds. Not
out of the question to see a couple tornadoes within a few hours
of initiation if the supercells can remain relatively isolated. 
So will message that the best chance for higher end severe will 
be over mainly central KS this evening, before this activity 
congeals into an MCS and pushes into eastern KS. 

A secondary area of convection is expected to develop later
tonight as very impressive 850-700mb moisture transport lifts out
of western/central OK and moves into southeast KS. ECMWF-GFS-NAM
agree well on this area of heavy rainfall starting to impact
southeast KS generally around or after 09z Sun and continuing
after 12z. We are looking at PW values around or slightly greater
than 2.25" which is around 200% of normal. Even though the area of
heavy rainfall will be fairly progressive, feel that rainfall 
rates will be high enough to cause flooding and flash flooding. 
With this, went ahead and expanded the flash flood watch to 
include all of southeast KS. 

By 15z Sun, upper trough will be making its way across the 
central Plains with far southeast KS still in the right entrance 
region of a strong upper jet, which should allow heavy rainfall to
linger into the early afternoon hours. By 21z Sun, majority of
rainfall is expected to be east of the forecast area as a cold
front makes its way across the region. Surface high will settle
over the area for Sun night into Mon, keeping rain out of the

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

By Tue, ECMWF and GFS agree well on a closed upper low sinking 
south across the Desert Southwest. Tonight's runs are much less 
progressive with this feature compared to last night's runs of the
ECMWF and GFS. Meanwhile further north, there is also good 
agreement in some shortwave energy diving southeast across the 
northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. This will allow
a cold front to move into the area by Wed. The next good rain 
chances will come as the upper low over the southwest CONUS 
finally lifts out into the Plains. This looks to happen in the 
Thu-Fri time frame. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Scattered showers and storms impacting southeast KS and KCNU
during the morning hours will gradually propagate eastward away 
from the area as we move into the mid afternoon hours. Other 
showers and storms may develop within the moist axis over central 
OK impacting portions of southeast KS later this afternoon.
Meanwhile, VFR and breezy southwest winds prevailed across central
KS through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will
veer ahead of a slow moving cold front across central KS this 
afternoon. This front will provide a focus for some severe storms 
after 3-5 PM across our central KS counties possibly impacting 
KRSL, KGBD and KSLN into the evening hours. More widespread storm 
development tonight will impact much of the area with reduced 
flight categories likely through much of the night. Winds behind
the front will shift to the northwest and this front is expected
across central KS in the 11Z-14Z timeframe on Sunday spreading 
slowly south and eastward across south central Kansas towards
midday and southeast KS during the afternoon hours. The front may
provide a focus for showers and storms across portions of south
central and all of southeast KS during the day on Sunday.


Wichita-KICT    84  69  78  57 /  40  60  50  10 
Hutchinson      86  66  78  55 /  40  60  50   0 
Newton          82  68  77  55 /  30  80  60  10 
ElDorado        80  70  77  56 /  30  90  60  10 
Winfield-KWLD   82  70  79  58 /  30  70  70  10 
Russell         87  61  76  55 /  60  70  40   0 
Great Bend      88  62  76  54 /  60  80  40   0 
Salina          86  66  76  55 /  60  80  40   0 
McPherson       84  67  75  54 /  40  80  50   0 
Coffeyville     82  72  79  61 /  60  70  90  30 
Chanute         80  72  78  58 /  80  90  90  30 
Iola            79  71  77  58 /  80  90  90  30 
Parsons-KPPF    80  71  79  60 /  70  80  90  30 


Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday 
afternoon for KSZ052-053-069>072-093>096-098>100.