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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 220319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1019 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Low level moisture transport continue to feed into the line of 
convection currently over central KS from Lincoln south to Great 
Bend.  Latest RAP suggests that this moisture transport will 
continue to veer to the NE overnight and lift slowly to the NE as 
well.  Current propagation vectors also suggest that the central KS 
convection will continue to shift E-SE mainly along and north of 
highway 50 along this moisture transport axis.  So think areas south 
of this convection will stay dry for the overnight hours.   

Current forecast and grids looks right on track, but will send out 
an update shortly.  



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

It has been a warm and windy Easter Sunday across central, south 
central, and southeast Kansas. At the surface, an area of low 
pressure is centered over northwest Kansas ahead of a cold front 
extending across the Northern Plains from the Great Lakes region 
westward to the Rockies. A distinct dryline extends southward from
the surface low through western/central Kansas and into the 
Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Ahead of the dryline and front 
across the CWA, good mixing and a tightened pressure gradient have
allowed for gusty south winds that have flirted with advisory 
criteria this afternoon, particularly in southeast Kansas. 
Combined with plenty of sunshine, the southerly flow has warmed 
temperatures into the low 80s areawide this afternoon.

Heading into the evening and overnight period is when things 
begin to get more interesting as the dryline and front slowly 
progress east/southeast into central Kansas. Convergence along and
ahead of these boundaries in concert with an uptick in available 
low-level moisture could produce some isolated thunderstorms this
evening- overnight in central Kansas as the cap in this area 
erodes. Still think elsewhere in south central Kansas will remain 
under a strong cap throughout the evening preventing convective 
initiation. With 1500-2000J/kg of 0-1km MLCAPE and fairly steep 
700mb-500mb lapse rates, cannot rule out a strong to marginally 
severe storm capable of wind gusts up to around 60mph or so. Shear
looks marginal at best in the area of weakest convective 
inhibition, so thinking wind will be the primary threat though 
some hail up to around 1 inch cannot be completely ruled out. 
There is still some question regarding precip coverage during the 
day on Monday. Most models keep south central and southeast Kansas
capped during the day on Monday, but the NAM, NAMNEST, and HIRES 
guidance are much more liberal with chances for isolated to 
scattered showers along and ahead of the frontal boundary during 
the day. Even if that turns out the be the case, only marginal 
instability would prevent widespread thunder in favor of just a 
few rain showers during the day. Given the uncertainty, felt it 
was worth including a slight chance mention in the forecast. 

Monday night through Tuesday, another shortwave will bring better
chances for rain showers and thunderstorms to southern Kansas. The
threat for severe storms looks low throughout this period,
however. Temperatures will be much cooler on Tuesday with highs
expected to range in the low to mid 60s area-wide as a result of
much lower thickness values, sky cover, and boundary layer cold
air advection over the area for much of the day. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) 
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

The forecast becomes much more quiet in the long term once precip
ends for most of the area on Tuesday night. Models have been
fairly consistent depicting a mid/upper low that will move across
the Southern Plains Wednesday-Thursday. Guidance keeps this system
and most, if not all, of its associated precip south of the
Kansas/Oklahoma border leaving central, south central, and
southeast Kansas dry. A warming trend in temperatures will
commence beginning on Wednesday, with highs gradually increasing
each day from the low 70s on Wednesday to the low 80s next
weekend. Behind the Southern Plains mid/upper low during the
middle of the week, a ridging pattern will take over continuing
the dry tend until the weekend. Early indications are that a
couple of shortwaves could bring chances for showers/thunderstorms overnight
Friday night and again Saturday night, but confidence is rather 
low at this time. 


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

VFR conditions are expected for most locations over the next 24 
hours.  A cold front and dryline will gradually push into central KS 
this evening, with convection over the high plains slowly 
propagating east into areas along and north of Interstate 70 later 
this evening.  So will include a VCTS for the KRSL/KGBD and KSLN taf 
sites.  Will also go with a tempo group for the KRSL taf, as once 
TSRA moves into the area, it may produce some gusty winds and reduce 
vsbys to MVFR for some short periods.    

Cold front will make slow progress to the S-SE late tonight into 
early on Mon, with a wind shift expected to the NW.  there is some 
hints at some MVFR or possibly some IFR cigs over SE KS just ahead 
of the front, so will mention some scattered lower clouds for now.   



Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Fire weather concerns will remain low over the next week with
beneficial rainfall expected across the area from multiple 
chances of showers and thunderstorms.


Wichita-KICT    59  76  50  63 /  10  10  40  40 
Hutchinson      56  73  47  63 /  30  10  30  30 
Newton          57  73  47  62 /  20  10  40  30 
ElDorado        60  76  49  62 /  20  20  40  50 
Winfield-KWLD   61  77  51  63 /  10  20  60  60 
Russell         53  67  43  65 /  30  10  10  10 
Great Bend      53  69  44  64 /  30  10  10  20 
Salina          56  72  47  65 /  50  10  10  20 
McPherson       55  72  47  63 /  40  10  30  20 
Coffeyville     62  77  54  63 /  10  20  60  70 
Chanute         61  76  52  62 /  20  20  40  60 
Iola            61  76  51  61 /  20  20  40  60 
Parsons-KPPF    62  76  54  62 /  10  20  50  70