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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 201142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
642 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night) 
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Currently have an upper ridge extending from Sonora Mex through
the southern Plains. Water vapor imagery shows a weak impulse
sliding into the Missouri Valley which is aiding in storm
development over northern IA. This complex of storms is also 
developing in an area of impressive 850mb moisture transport.

Another day of excessive heat is expected today with widespread
105 to 110 heat indices. Did add a few more counties to the
excessive heat warning mainly due to how warm we got yesterday,
with 850mb temps and 1000-850mb partial thicknesses expected to be
higher today. GFS is developing widespread showers and storms 
along our western flank this afternoon, but not buying into this 
at this point. Feel it's not out of the question to see a storm or
two, but confidence is too low to insert into forecast.

Models remain consistent in digging an impressive trough from
Ontario into the northern Great Lakes region. This will allow a
cold front to surge south across the Northern Plains and into
northern KS by Wed morning. Should see a fairly large mcs develop
tonight near the front over Nebraska with the feature diving
southeast into the morning hours Wed. This area of convection will
have a chance to impact our northeast fringes with additional
development possible Wed as the area of 850-700 moisture transport
and surface front continue to slowly sag south. Still looking like
our best chance for widespread convection will be for the Wed
night period as a low level jet focuses into south central and
southeast KS. With shear not that impressive, heavy rain looks to
be the main threat. 

Temps will be a challenge on Wed as the front slides through at
least central KS. However, southern KS will still have a chance to
heat up more than expected. So did increase temps a few degrees
across southern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) 
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Will maintain some decent pops for Thu into Thu evening as both 
ECMWF and GFS migrate some upper energy out of the 
central/southern Rockies and across the area. It also looks like 
some of this energy maybe of moonsonal origin. Confidence in pops
drops off significantly after the Thu evening time frame.
Unseasonably strong westerlies will be in place across the
northern Plains to end the work week into the weekend. This is
also where the main storm track will be situated. Our best chance
for showers and storms will be for a weak perturbation to lift out
of the southern Rockies but confidence in models picking up on
such a small feature is low at this time. 

Confidence remains high in high temps being a few degrees below
normal for this time of year with a gradual warm-up as we head
into the weekend. 


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

S winds should increase to 13-17kts sustained in all areas ~15Z
with occasional gusts ~22kts. Some diminishment occurs 00-02Z when
decoupling commences. VFR in all areas throughout the 20/12Z TAF


Wichita-KICT    99  75  92  71 /  10  20  30  60 
Hutchinson     100  74  91  68 /  10  20  30  60 
Newton          99  73  90  69 /  10  20  40  60 
ElDorado        98  74  91  71 /  10  10  40  60 
Winfield-KWLD   99  75  94  71 /  10  10  20  50 
Russell         99  71  87  66 /  10  30  40  60 
Great Bend     100  71  90  67 /  10  30  30  60 
Salina          99  73  89  68 /  10  30  50  60 
McPherson       99  73  89  68 /  10  20  40  60 
Coffeyville     96  76  92  72 /  10  10  30  50 
Chanute         96  74  91  71 /  10  10  40  60 
Iola            96  74  90  70 /  10  20  40  60 
Parsons-KPPF    96  75  92  71 /  10  10  30  50 


Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for 

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ033-048>053-