Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 201740
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1140 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 310 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

Most of the widespread lift and higher level cloud cover for cloud 
ice has shifted NE of the forecast area early this morning, but low 
layer stratus clouds still producing a mix of very light snow and 
patchy freezing drizzle as far south as ICT.  So plan on keeping the 
WSW headlines going until 12z. Think a majority of the snow is 
already down, but could still see some slick roads early this 
morning. 

With that said think most of the precip will come to end by the 
daylight hours, with weak downslope flow in its wake. This will lead 
to max temps a little warmer today than yesterday, leading to alot 
of the newly falling snow melting for a slushy afternoon. Still 
could see max temps tempered some for areas west of ICT where some
areas got 6 to 10 inches of fresh snow. 

A gradual warming trend will be on tap for the end of the week, with 
SW flow aloft leading to increasing warm advection and warmer temps 
for most locations. Plan on going below guidance max temp numbers 
again on Thu as lingering snow cover will again keep temps from 
reaching their true potential, but still could see some lower 50s in 
SE KS. 

The SW flow in the mid layers and warm advection will lead to 
increasing chances for showers on Fri and even some embedded 
thunderstorms for Fri night as warm moist air pushes north, as 
surface dewpoints climb into the lower 50s.  

Ketcham 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) 
Issued at 310 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

Both the GFS and ECMWF are fairly similar with a significant 
shortwave coming out of the Rio Grand valley of TX for late Fri 
night into Sat.  This shortwave is expected to lift rapidly to the 
northeast across KS during the daytime hours on Sat.  The increasing 
lift and moisture ahead of this system suggests a solid chance of 
showers and embedded thunderstorms for most of Sat.  The real 
concern will on the NW side of the surface low expected to develop 
over northern OK and race northeast across eastern KS into NW MO. 
Colder air pulled into this system may lead to another round of 
wintry precip for portions of central KS for Sat afternoon as a 
fairly significant trowel axis will located over north central KS. 
Gonna have to keep an eye on this system, as the cold air gets 
pulled into the system, which may lead to a fairly dynamic winter 
storm developing over portions of central KS for late Sat afternoon. 
The sharp pressure gradient associated with system suggests near 
blizzard like conditions. Stay tuned. 

After this system shifts to the NE, mid level flow will become more 
zonal for the rest of the weekend into next week.  This will lead to 
another weak system moving across the northern plains on Mon, but 
will keep most of the colder air well to the north-northeast of the 
forecast area, with moderating temps back towards climo normals.   

Ketcham 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

BR/fog and LLWS are the primary concerns over the next 24 hours.

A low stratus deck over south-central and southeast Kansas, still
producing MVFR/IFR CIGs, will gradually erode/move out over the 
next few hours. This evening, there will be a period of lighter
winds and clear skies, which may allow some BR/fog to develop,
especially given the recent round of wet snow for many areas. For
this TAF issuance, I added some 6SM BR conditions where confidence
is highest. These conditions could end up lower than currently
advertised. One potential limiting factor for fog may end up 
being mid level clouds moving up from the south by sunrise 
Thursday. The other concern tonight is the potential of marginal
LLWS conditions over central KS. For now, I did not include a
mention in the TAFs due to the marginal and somewhat brief nature
expected. 

Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

Widespread snow cover and light winds will lead to fire 
weather concerns remaining low.

Ketcham 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    35  19  44  32 /  10   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      35  18  42  30 /  10   0   0   0 
Newton          33  19  42  30 /  10   0   0   0 
ElDorado        35  20  44  31 /  10   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   35  20  47  32 /  10   0   0   0 
Russell         34  16  39  29 /  10   0   0  10 
Great Bend      35  17  40  30 /  10   0   0   0 
Salina          33  16  40  28 /  10   0   0   0 
McPherson       32  17  40  29 /  10   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     41  24  50  32 /  10   0   0   0 
Chanute         37  21  47  30 /  10   0   0   0 
Iola            37  20  46  29 /  10   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    39  23  49  32 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...RM
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham