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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 162057
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
357 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

There is a persistent ridge over the central CONUS with a trough 
making its way onshore out west. Hurricane Humberto is north of the 
Bahamas and east of the Carolinas with a northeast path. A tropical 
disturbance maintains its position in the Gulf of Mexico just off 
the Texas coast which will bring heavy rain to eastern Texas and 
southern Louisiana. Back in Kansas, south to southwest flow has 
helped keep temperatures around 90 degrees for another day. Breezy 
winds provided what may be considered aid in the feels like factor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Highlights: 

1)Breezy on Tuesday 

2)Highs around 90s 

3)Slight chances of thunderstorms Wednesday & Thursday in central KS

The trough off to the west will send a wave across the Northern 
Plains Tuesday into Wednesday which should push the axis of the 
ridge further to the east. As this system strengthens, the 
tightening gradient will result in an increase in the wind speeds as 
highlighted for the past few days. Model soundings show momentum 
transfer to 750mb which essentially suggests that the winds at that 
height in the atmosphere will be transferred down to the surface. 
Those values indicate Wind Advisory criteria would be met especially 
in central Kansas where sustained speeds could reach 30 to 35 mph 
according to the NAM and GFS. However, there are several other 
models that would keep values just shy even in central Kansas. If 
you followed the soundings, advisory potential would be across 
central and south central Kansas. It is likely that the next 
forecast issuance would lean towards an advisory while trying to 
answer the question of its southern extent. Travel on east/west
oriented roadways will be difficult with the potential speeds and
gusts.  

The tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico stays over eastern 
Texas before gradually moving northwest which essentially could get 
ingested into the flow pattern as mentioned in the previous 
discussion. Current models are not showing the influence that was 
previously forecast in the precipitation field for Wednesday and 
Thursday in the south central and southeast portions of the state. 
There are slight chances of thunderstorms in central Kansas as that 
Northern Plains system slides east, but this will depend on how far 
south the activity will actually reach. Temperatures through this 
period are expected to be around 90 degrees keeping this above 
normal temperature trend by about 5-8 degrees thanks to the flow 
pattern. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Challenges: Precipitation chances & potential for strong to severe 
storms 

A change in the pattern continues to be anticipated for the weekend 
when the the trough moves eastward towards the Plains. There could 
be a wave out ahead of the system for Friday thus chances of showers 
and thunderstorms are in the forecast. However, the values are lower 
than the previous issuance. The first frontal boundary is expected 
to move through on Saturday with the models in slightly better 
agreement compared to yesterday. There are still some differences in 
the timing, but it is closer. As the first front moves east, there 
is an increase in instability and shear. Thus strong to severe 
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out at this time. Another boundary 
appears to move through on Sunday. Overall these days have the 
highest potential for meaningful precipitation given the movement of 
this system. Uncertainty remains though in the exact timing, 
coverage and strength of any storms. Adjustments are guaranteed 
especially in the exact chances for precipitation as they have been 
the past few days. If the models trend towards even better 
agreement, this will help the confidence in the expectations for the 
weekend. One nice feature with the storms and front will be cooler 
air. Temperatures are forecast to fall to the low to mid 80s or back 
to seasonal normal this weekend. Stay tuned for changes. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period. 
Extensive high clouds may interfere with mixing at times this 
afternoon, making wind forecasts a bit challenging. Could see 
fluctuations between sustained winds around 12kt with little if 
any gusts to sustained winds of 15-20kts with gusts of 25-30kt 
from hour to hour during the afternoon. Winds will diminish a bit 
at sunset, but should pick up later tonight at KRSL, KSLN and then
elsewhere after sunrise. -Howerton 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  90  72  90 /   0   0   0  10 
Hutchinson      71  91  73  91 /   0   0   0  10 
Newton          71  89  72  89 /   0   0   0  10 
ElDorado        70  89  72  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   71  90  71  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         73  93  71  93 /  10   0  10  10 
Great Bend      72  91  70  91 /  10   0  10  10 
Salina          73  92  74  92 /   0   0  10  20 
McPherson       71  90  72  89 /   0   0  10  10 
Coffeyville     70  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Chanute         69  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Iola            69  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    70  90  70  90 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...PJH