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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 181913
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
213 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

The main forecast highlight continues to be the dangerous heat 
indices that will be experienced across much of the central U.S. 
in the short term. Relief is on the way, however, as a front moves
through the area late this weekend or early next week, which will
also mark a return to chances of showers and storms into the 
forecast.

&&

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Mid-morning (15z) surface hand analysis revealed an area of low 
pressure situated in northwest Kansas with a surface warm front 
extending north from the low across central and eastern Nebraska 
into Iowa. A dryline extends southward from the low through far 
western Kansas, the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, and into eastern 
New Mexico. A quasi-stationary front stretches across northern 
Colorado with a surface ridge to the south over western Colorado. 
Dewpoints in the upper 60s and into the 70s are common across the 
central U.S. east of the western Kansas dryline within a large zone 
of well-mixed air. This low is forecast to quickly progress 
northward into Nebraska over the course of the day today, and as a 
result, the boundaries will lift northward as well by early 
afternoon.

Water vapor GOES-R imagery shows a narrow band of higher mid-level 
moisture stretching from the Southwest U.S. into the Great Lakes 
region. This narrow band stretches across portions of south central 
Kansas into northeast Kansas, which also corresponds to an area of 
higher 850mb moisture transport. Within this narrow corridor, a few 
mid-high clouds developed and slowly traversed the forecast area 
this morning, but have mostly eroded early this afternoon with a few 
lingering exceptions. Southerly flow is prevalent across Kansas 
at the surface with westerly downslope 500mb flow supporting 
strong warm air advection into the forecast area. Despite buoyancy
across the region that would be sufficient to sustain convection 
within the warm sector across Kansas (especially by this afternoon
as surface temperatures continue to increase), no focus and 
little-to-no forcing for ascent amidst a very strongly capped 
environment will prevent any shower or storm development today. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) 
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Without chances for precipitation today or tonight, the focus will 
be on the heat that has been in place over the past couple of days 
and that will continue through early this weekend. 1000-850mb 
heights are forecast to range from roughly 1440-1460m by late 
this afternoon, which local climatology suggests would support 
afternoon high temperatures reaching the 100 degree mark in 
central and south central Kansas, with the upper 90s prevailing in
southeast Kansas. When combined with the high dewpoints, heat 
index values of 105-110 degrees will be common across the entire 
area.

Tomorrow and Saturday will be much of the same as a surface low 
develops in the vicinity of the Rockies in Colorado and an upper 
level ridge persists over the Plains and Mississippi River 
Valley. Warm, southerly flow will persist as well. A statistical 
analysis of the past few days suggested the ADJMET performed the 
best with both max and min temperatures, so forecast temps for the
next 48 hours were tweaked to trend toward this guidance with the
persistent pattern remaining over the area. The Excessive Heat 
Warning will remain in effect until Saturday evening, so please 
see this for further details.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) 
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

A pattern shift will finally occur by mid-weekend. As the previous 
discussion mentioned, a mid-level shortwave is progged to dive from 
the Northern Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley late Saturday 
night into Sunday morning, which could serve as a focus for 
convective development in central Kansas during the late night and 
early morning hours. Sufficient buoyancy will likely be in place 
to support strong storms, but forecast wind shear is relatively 
weak with modest lapse rates. Therefore, agree with the previous 
forecast that a few strong storms cannot be ruled out in central 
Kansas during this period, but the large-scale environment does 
not appear very favorable for severe weather at this time.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible across the forecast area 
later Sunday afternoon through Monday as a cold front pushes 
southeast across the Central Plains. There are still differences 
among forecast models regarding timing of convective development. 
For example, the GFS favors a quicker-hitting scenario in which the 
bulk of thunderstorms will have progressed south of the 
Kansas/Oklahoma border by the time of the Monday morning commute, 
while the ECMWF depicts a slower frontal passage and sustains 
thunderstorms until mid to late afternoon on Monday for the southern 
tier of Kansas counties. 

The most noticeable difference heading into next week will be the
much cooler temperatures following the frontal passage. Afternoon
highs will drop back down to below normal values topping out in 
the low to mid 80s through the middle of next week. Additionally, 
much lower dewpoints will allow heat index values to drop back 
down into the 80s as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period. 
Little change to the weather pattern with ridge aloft and
diurnally gusty south winds across the area with early morning 
LLWS.

KED

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Excessive heat continues across central, south central, and 
southeast Kansas as heat index values soar into the 105-110 degree 
range for the next several days. With Wichita's Eisenhower National 
Airport reaching the 100 degree mark yesterday for the first time 
this year and with today marking the anniversary of the all time 
record high temperature for the state of Kansas (121 degrees in 
Fredonia in 1936, also tied in Alton, KS just 6 days later on July 
24 1936), it seems heat has been on everyone's mind of late. 
However, as discussed above, a major pattern shift will occur early 
next week and is likely to persist for at least the next couple of 
weeks or so. The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day and 8-14 day 
temperature outlooks both depict roughly 40-60% chances of below 
normal temperatures across the area throughout these time periods. 
For reference, normal values for afternoon high temperatures at the 
end of July are typically around 93 for central (Salina) and south 
central (Wichita) Kansas, and 91 for southeast (Chanute) Kansas. 
Similar percentages are given for remaining in a below-normal 
precipitation pattern for the next couple of weeks as well. On the 
monthly and seasonal time scales, however, there is less 
predictability with equal chances of both above and below normal 
temperatures as well as equal chances of above and below normal 
precipitation. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76 100  77 100 /   0   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      77 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          76  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0 
ElDorado        76  97  76  97 /   0   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   77  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         76 104  77 103 /   0   0   0  10 
Great Bend      75 103  76 101 /   0   0   0  10 
Salina          78 102  78 101 /   0   0   0  10 
McPherson       76 100  77  99 /   0   0   0  10 
Coffeyville     77  96  77  96 /   0   0   0   0 
Chanute         77  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0 
Iola            77  96  76  96 /   0   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    77  95  76  96 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TAV
MESOSCALE...TAV
SHORT TERM...TAV 
LONG TERM...TAV 
AVIATION...KED 
CLIMATE...TAV