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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 260801
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
301 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

A rather quiet weather pattern will be the rule for today a high 
pressure system builds into the region.  Winds will slowly shift to 
the south by the afternoon as the next system approaches.  This next 
system for early Saturday morning is expected to come through rather 
quick.  The southerly winds will allow some decent moisture 
transport to take place ahead of the system but there does not seem 
to be enough time for significant moisture to get into the place 
before the main frontal system comes through. Winds will be brisk 
for much of Saturday but feel they will stay just below advisory 
level this time around.  

Thunderstorm chances with this system do not seem that significant. 
While moisture transport is very good, low level shear and lapse 
rates are not great.  These parameters tend to support showers with 
embedded thunderstorms more than strong thunderstorms let alone 
severe weather.  Right now, the short range models indicate the bulk 
of the strong to severe thunderstorms chances will remain well to 
the south of the CWA.  

Once the front comes through the region, winds will kick around to 
the north and some CAA will take over the region. Temperatures will 
remain near normal for this time of year for Saturday but likely to 
drop a little below normal for Sunday as the high pressure system 
builds into the region.  

Metzger 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

The extended range looks to get a little interesting.  By Sunday 
night and into Monday morning, the GFS/ECMWF/GEM all indicated a 
decent system will be moving through the region.  The main challenge 
in this segment of the forecast will be the extend of the moisture 
transport ahead of the frontal system and the amount shear and 
instability in place by the time the main forcing mechanism arrives. 
 The GFS is the most bullish on the severe weather potential but the 
ECMWF is not.  Both are rather wet for this time frame though so it 
does appear we will have a good chance for some nice beneficial rain 
for the region.  As such, confidence is rather good for the rain and 
temperatures for Monday and into Tuesday, but much lower on the 
severe weather chances at this time.  

The remainder of the extended range looks very unsettled to say the 
least.  The GFS/ECMWF both want to stall Monday's front south of the 
region and hold some decent mid level southerly flow.  This 
combination generally spells rain for the CWA.  The GEM also hints 
at this scenario but is a little quicker to kick the front out by 
Thursday but then brings another wave of energy in right behind it. 
All the models indicate the stalled front will remain to the south 
of the CWA which will keep the severe weather possibilities down but 
they can not be ruled out.  The GFS has indicated a decent chance 
for some stronger storms Wednesday night and into Thursday.  The 
ECMWF is much more subdued with the thunderstorms chances Wednesday 
night but does still indicate a wet night.  The models do not agree 
on timing or intensity at this time.  Currently have moderate 
confidence next week will be cooler and rather wet given the 
persistence of the models.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period. 
Surface ridge axis will settle across central Kansas late tonight
and be situated across southeast Kansas by Friday afternoon. 
South winds will increase on the back side of the surface ridge 
across central Kansas during Friday afternoon. Deepening southerly 
flow by Friday night will result in low level wind shear
conditions developing west of the Kansas turnpike before 
midnight.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  55  72  42 /  10  40  10  10 
Hutchinson      75  55  71  40 /  10  30   0  10 
Newton          74  54  71  38 /  10  40  10  10 
ElDorado        73  54  71  40 /   0  50  10  10 
Winfield-KWLD   74  56  75  43 /  10  40  10  10 
Russell         76  55  68  37 /  10  20   0  10 
Great Bend      77  55  71  38 /  10  20   0  10 
Salina          75  56  69  38 /  10  30  10  10 
McPherson       74  55  71  38 /  10  30  10  10 
Coffeyville     74  55  77  43 /   0  40  40  10 
Chanute         72  54  75  40 /   0  50  30   0 
Iola            71  54  74  39 /   0  50  30   0 
Parsons-KPPF    73  55  76  42 /   0  50  40   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...KED