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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 232051
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
251 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Today's powerful storm system will be lifting rapidly north 
and east away from the area tonight. Some blowing snow may 
linger early in the period but the bulk of accumulating snow 
across central KS should be rapidly diminishing by early 
evening.

Cooler air will arrive tonight in the wake of the storm 
system, but the stronger H85 CAA is progged to remain well 
north of the area arriving across the region on Sun although 
the bulk of the coldest air will be directed east of our 
area. For highs on Sunday, trended central KS down a couple 
of degrees while high temperatures may approach 50 near 
the Oklahoma state line.

Mon-Tue...southerly flow will try to return to the area on Monday
as sfc low pressure deepens across the Southern High Plains. A 
stalled frontal boundary is expected to remain draped across the 
area with a wide range of temperatures anticipated. Afternoon 
highs are expected to range from near freezing across central 
Kansas to the mid/upper 50s near the OK state line. There is good 
support for another surge of Canadian air sinking south across 
the area on Tuesday and becoming more entrenched on Wed. The NAM 
is more aggressive when compared to the GFS and appears to have 
support from the ECMWF and Canadian. Point soundings suggests a 
low potential for some freezing drizzle but confidence remains 
fairly low at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Some low pops were maintained across portions of the area on Wed 
where some potential for a light wintry mix remains but any 
precipitation appears to remain rather light at this time. A 
progressive zonal flow is progged through the end of the period 
favoring below normal temperatures and another shot of cooler air 
toward the end of the period. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Poor aviation conditions will prevail across central Kansas
through the afternoon hours with heavy snow and very low
visibilities at times. Meanwhile surface low pressure will race
northeast across the region for today with strong northwest winds
spreading across southern and southeast Kansas. Low clouds will
quickly scatter out as the upper level system pulls away from the
region tonight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated through the period
with below normal temperatures prevailing through much of the
upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    27  42  24  54 /  10   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      24  39  21  49 /  20   0   0   0 
Newton          26  40  21  50 /  20   0   0   0 
ElDorado        28  40  22  52 /  10   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   28  45  25  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         19  27  11  31 /  20   0   0   0 
Great Bend      19  30  15  40 /  10   0   0   0 
Salina          21  32  14  38 /  40   0   0   0 
McPherson       23  36  18  46 /  20   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     30  46  25  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Chanute         29  41  22  53 /  10   0   0   0 
Iola            29  40  21  52 /  10   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    29  45  24  55 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ053-069>072-
091>096-098>100.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ052-
068-082-083.

Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for KSZ032-033-
047>051-067.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...MWM