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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 152013
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
313 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

A ridge sits primarily over the CONUS with a weak influence over 
Arizona, a weak disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Storm 
Humberto just north of the Bahamas. This does mean a quiet day 
around the Plains with clear skies and warmer air in the warm sector 
south of the boundary stretching across southern Nebraska into Iowa. 
Temperatures rose to the low to mid 90s as a reminder of summer, but 
breezy southwest winds offered a bit of relief with sustained speeds 
of 10 to 20 mph and gusts to 25 to 30 mph. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Highlights: 

1)Highs around 90 degrees 

2)Breezy on Tuesday 

3)Chances of storms on Wednesday in central Kansas  

The ridge stays over most of the CONUS to start the work week while 
a system off the West Coast begins to make its way onshore. This 
will help push the weak wave over Arizona to the northeast which in 
turn will have minimal influence to the area. As this next 
approaching system strengthens or tightens the pressure gradient, 
there will be an uptick in the wind speeds on Tuesday thanks to the 
tightening gradient and mixing to 700-800mb with steep low level 
lapse rates as highlighted in the previous discussion. Sustained 
winds will be highest across central Kansas with 20-24kts (23-28mph) 
anticipated which is just shy of any wind headline. In fact, the 
forecast wind speeds are nearly the same as the previous issuance. 
There may be a need for a headline if stronger winds can be found 
aloft in upcoming model runs with the momentum transfer potential.  

A wave coming off of the western system is anticipated to move its 
way across primarily the Northern Plains on Tuesday night-Wednesday. 
While the bulk of this part of the wave stays off to the north, 
there are chances that precipitation may drop into north central and 
northeast Kansas early Wednesday. This remains unchanged. As this 
system moves to the east, there will be a subsequent eastward shift 
of the ridge axis. In terms of temperatures, above seasonal normal 
values (by 5-8 degrees) are expected with values around 90 degrees 
throughout.  

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Highlights: Chances of precipitation for the weekend and cooler air 
  
Weak waves from the low just off to the west could be a source for a 
couple of chances of precipitation early Thursday and again on 
Friday. At this point, the better chances for any meaningful 
precipitation appear to be on Saturday into Sunday as the main 
trough works its way eastward. There are slight model differences in 
the timing of this system. Current instability parameters suggest 
the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, but it is very 
uncertain given the alignment or minimal overlap of promising shear, 
CAPE and forcing. Thus confidence remains low especially since there 
appears to be continual adjustments in the track and timing of this 
system. Temperatures are expected to have a gradual decline during 
this part of the forecast to drop to what is considered to be 
seasonal normal (lower 80s) next weekend. Stay tuned for 
modifications to the forecast. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Gusty south-southwest winds will persist this afternoon and again
late tomorrow morning. Some increase in 700MB moisture will spread
some mid clouds into parts of central KS around daybreak. At this
time, not expecting any precipitation with this moisture return. 
-Howerton 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  91  71  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      70  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          69  90  71  89 /   0   0   0   0 
ElDorado        68  90  70  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   69  91  71  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         71  92  73  93 /   0   0  10   0 
Great Bend      70  92  72  91 /   0   0  10   0 
Salina          71  91  73  92 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       70  91  71  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     69  90  70  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Chanute         68  90  69  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Iola            68  89  69  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    69  89  70  90 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...PJH