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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 231814
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
114 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Fog could develop this morning over southeast Kansas with moist 
ground soils from recent rainfall, however lingering low clouds 
could prevent dense fog. Otherwise dry weather conditions and near
normal daytime highs will prevail today with surface high 
pressure over the area. Meanwhile some mid-level warm air 
advection could spark off elevated showers/storms over parts of 
central Kansas early Tuesday morning. Models show a weak upper 
level wave moving across the central plains for Tuesday and 
Wednesday along with increasing low level moisture. We could see 
some scattered showers/storms develop across the region along a 
slow moving cold front mainly on Wednesday. Combination of wind 
shear/instability supports some possible strong to severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Long range models show upper level flow transitioning to a more 
pronounced southwest flow regime aloft this period. This will 
push even richer low level Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into
Kansas. Models have a cold front pushing southward into the 
region for Thursday night into Friday which could slow down or
stall out. This could result in an unsettled weather pattern for
Kansas with multiple days of storms possible. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Light winds and VFR prevailed across the area this afternoon. As
low level returns across the area tonight we expect some stratus
to overspread the area. IFR and LIFR will be possible, especially
across southern Kansas into the morning hours on Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  65  84  67 /   0  10  20  20 
Hutchinson      82  64  86  66 /   0  10  10  20 
Newton          81  64  84  66 /   0  10  20  20 
ElDorado        80  65  83  67 /   0  10  20  20 
Winfield-KWLD   81  66  84  68 /   0  10  30  20 
Russell         84  64  87  62 /   0  20  10  10 
Great Bend      84  64  87  62 /   0  20  10  20 
Salina          83  64  86  65 /   0  10  10  20 
McPherson       82  63  85  64 /   0  10  10  20 
Coffeyville     82  64  83  69 /   0  10  40  40 
Chanute         80  63  81  69 /   0  10  40  40 
Iola            80  62  82  69 /   0   0  30  40 
Parsons-KPPF    81  64  82  69 /   0  10  40  40 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...MWM