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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 221941
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Northerly winds and weak cold  advection are leading to drier air 
oozing into the region this afternoon.  Remnant low level moisture 
has led to some diurnally driven cumulus, but expect this cloud 
cover to dissipate after sunset. 

Cooler and drier air will be the story for the next few days, as a 
Canadian ridge of high pressure settles over the area. Latest model 
projections suggest that this ridge will make slow progress to the 
east over the next several days, as the upper level flow stays out 
of the N-NW.  This will lead to max temps a little below seasonal 
averages for the next couple of days.   

Ridge will slowly slide into the Ozarks and Mississippi valley by 
Thu/Fri, which will lead to a gradual warming trend back towards 
normal for end of the week, for areas west of I-135, as southerly 
winds return to the region. Expect the dry conditions to continue, 
at least through Thu and probably into the weekend as well.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

There is some uncertainty on how Fri/Sat will play out, as the 
ECMWF shows a weak impulse in the northerly flow dropping across 
the area for Fri, which may lead to enough weakness for a rogue 
shower or two. But the GFS doesn't show this, so prefer to leave 
things dry for now. Expect max temps to slowly climb back a little
above normal by the weekend, with southerly flow returning to 
most locations. 

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

A stable post-frontal regime is firmly entrenched across the area
with VFR prevailing. Some scattered afternoon cumulus will develop
with perhaps a transient MVFR cig but most locations will see VFR
prevail. Gusty northeast winds will diminish this evening with
clear skies and light winds tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      58  82  57  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          59  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0 
ElDorado        60  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   61  81  58  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         56  83  57  87 /   0   0  10   0 
Great Bend      56  82  57  86 /   0   0  10   0 
Salina          58  82  58  85 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       58  80  56  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     63  81  59  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Chanute         61  80  59  82 /  10   0   0   0 
Iola            61  80  59  82 /  10   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    63  80  59  82 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM