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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 241145
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Will likely see some patchy fog early this morning across the 
region, although dense shield of high clouds should preclude 
widespread dense fog. Additionally, may see a few sprinkles early 
this morning across central and north- central Kansas in the 
vicinity of a mid-level trough axis. Lingering cloud cover should 
hold today's high temperatures in the upper 60s across southeast 
KS, with upper 70s likely across central/north- central KS where 
sunshine is more prevalent. 

Should see some patchy fog tonight across mainly eastern and 
southeast KS, due to continued moist low-levels amidst light winds
and clear skies.

Strong and gusty north winds will overspread the region Thursday,
as a potent shortwave and associated cold front drive southeast 
across the region. Temperatures should be a bit cooler in the 
upper 60s and 70s due to the strong cold advection in wake of the 
cold front.

Strengthening return flow in response to shortwave energy 
approaching from the northwest will support warmer temperatures 
Friday well into the 70s, along with increasing southerly winds. 
For Friday night into early Saturday, an approaching cold front 
driven by approaching shortwave energy should support increasing 
shower/thunderstorm chances across the region, especially across 
central and eastern Kansas. Likely not looking at widespread 
organized severe weather given marginal moisture/instability, 
although magnitude of isentropic ascent and deep layer shear 
amidst the marginal instability may support a handful of strong 
thunderstorms.

Kleinsasser

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Saturday looks like the last quiet day until at least mid to late
next week, as a stable post- frontal airmass spreads south across
the region. Thereafter starting Sunday or Sunday night, a western
CONUS longwave trough begins to take shape, allowing for an 
increasingly unstable airmass to set up across portions of the 
central and southern Plains. Various shortwaves ejecting out of 
the longwave trough will cause a wobbly frontal zone across the 
region. This overall synoptic pattern will support off-and-on 
rounds of thunderstorms. Magnitude of moisture/instability and 
deep layer shear should support strong/severe convection. The 
highest uncertainty at this point is the timing and amplitude of 
various shortwaves, along with the placement of the wobbly frontal
zone, which will have a big impact on severe storm potential. 
Stay tuned. 

Kleinsasser

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Patchy dense fog and localized pockets of IFR and VLIFR will
rapidly mix out by 13-14Z with VFR prevailing across central KS.
MVFR ceilings may be slower to mix out across southeast KS but VFR
is anticipated by mid afternoon across much of the area. Some
patchy fog may redevelop across the area again tonight. winds will
remain light across the area today-tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  50  75  47 /  10   0  10   0 
Hutchinson      74  48  73  45 /  10   0  10   0 
Newton          71  49  73  46 /  10   0  10   0 
ElDorado        70  50  75  47 /  10   0  10   0 
Winfield-KWLD   70  51  77  47 /  10   0  10   0 
Russell         78  48  71  45 /   0   0  10   0 
Great Bend      77  47  71  45 /  10   0  10   0 
Salina          76  48  72  45 /  10   0  10   0 
McPherson       74  48  72  45 /  10   0  10   0 
Coffeyville     69  50  76  48 /  10  10  10   0 
Chanute         69  50  76  47 /   0   0  10   0 
Iola            69  50  75  47 /   0   0  10   0 
Parsons-KPPF    69  50  76  47 /  10  10  10   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM