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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 220548
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1148 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

Based on the latest short term guidance and forecast soundings at
various locations across south central and southeast Kansas, have
issued an update to the forecast to remove the mention of drizzle
prior to 12z. Think that the air will be too dry prior to this 
time to get much drizzle going. Even shortly after 12z (roughly 
12-15z), think most areas are likely to remain dry, though some 
drizzle or freezing drizzle cannot be completely ruled out in the 
southwest portion of the CWA. Therefore, have reduced both 
coverage and magnitude of POPs during this period as well to 
reflect only a "slight" mention of freezing drizzle and drizzle
versus the previous "chance" mention. The thinking here is that 
temperatures will climb above the freezing mark at most locations 
by the time the column saturates deep enough to produce any 
precip/drizzle. 

-Vaughan

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Sunday night)...
Issued at 338 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

Weak wave and associated moisture advection leading to some 
sprinkles at best in portions of central Kansas. Continued 
lee cyclogenesis leads to increasing low-level moisture tonight 
into much of Friday with drizzle potential slowly ramping up. At 
least patchy freezing drizzle is possible for much of the area 
late tonight into early Friday with temps near freezing. Today's 
temps into the 40s for the most part may limit impacts of this 
potential light freezing precip. 

Main concerns still lie with Saturday and Saturday night with
potent upper wave rapidly crossing the region. Some differences on
tracks remain but have leaned closer to the more consistent ECMWF
for this forecast. Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms Friday
night into early Saturday transitions to snow quickly Saturday
across central Kansas with intense deformation zone in at least
weak static stability in the dendritic growth zone as NNW winds 
rapidly increase. 925 mb winds near 45 knots will support very 
strong winds accompanying and immediately following the snow for 
the potential for high impacts even with only limited snowfall. 
Have issued a Winter Storm Watch for roughly the northern half of 
the CWA with confidence in accumulations lower into south central 
Kansas. Winds diminish steadily Saturday night for steadily 
improving conditions.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...
Issued at 338 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

Surface ridging building in from the northwest and west to
northwest flow aloft leads to cool but drier conditions for much
of the work week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

The main aviation concerns over the next 24 hours will be low
clouds, drizzle, reduced visibilities, and light rain during much
of the day today. 

Stratus/ low clouds should build in the area over the next few 
hours then overspread the area shortly thereafter. Cigs will 
initially fall into the MVFR category and then continue falling 
to IFR initially in central Kansas early this morning and then
much of the area by late morning. Forecast soundings continue to indicate
that the moisture column should be sufficient to initiate some 
drizzle in response to increasing isentropic upglide sometime 
after 09z or so across much of the area, but feel more confident 
in the drizzle after 12z when the depth of the moisture column is 
expected become much greater. It is not completely out of the
question for some sites to receive some brief freezing drizzle
early in the period, but think the temperatures will largely be
above freezing once the better drizzle finally gets going. 

Visibilities are likely to be lowered throughout much of the day,
with winds generally prevailing out of the southeast. Sometime
tomorrow evening, precip may become heavy enough to classify as
light rain, so have included this at most sites around the 00z
time frame or so.

-Vaughan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

Widespread precipitation chances Friday through Saturday along
with continued below normal temperatures should keep fire danger
concerns to a minimum the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    33  43  40  47 /  10  40  50  90 
Hutchinson      32  42  36  43 /  10  40  50  90 
Newton          32  42  38  45 /  10  40  50  90 
ElDorado        32  43  39  48 /  10  40  50  90 
Winfield-KWLD   33  45  42  51 /  10  40  50  90 
Russell         31  39  30  33 /  10  40  50  90 
Great Bend      32  40  32  35 /  10  40  50  90 
Salina          30  41  33  38 /  10  40  50  90 
McPherson       32  41  35  41 /  10  40  50  90 
Coffeyville     34  50  44  54 /  10  40  50  90 
Chanute         32  47  41  50 /  10  40  50  90 
Iola            31  46  39  49 /  10  40  50  90 
Parsons-KPPF    33  49  44  53 /  10  40  50  90 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday 
evening for KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TAV
SHORT TERM...WFO TOP
LONG TERM....WFO TOP
AVIATION...TAV
FIRE WEATHER...ADK