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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 172154
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
354 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 353 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Hopefully the sunshine warmed your day across much of Kansas this 
afternoon. Temperatures were able to rise above freezing in many 
locations without clouds. North central and northeast Kansas stayed 
in the 20s with the clouds overhead. Breezy northwesterly winds may 
not have made it feel that warm outside, but a bright star overhead 
certainly can make many smile.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 353 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Highlights: 
1) Precipitation chances on Monday and Tuesday 
2) Wind chills near zero on Monday

Challenge: Precipitation type on Tuesday afternoon and night

A trough continues its northeast progression from the central U.S. 
to the Great Lakes. Cold air advection will be the factor to drop 
temperatures to near 10 in central Kansas and the teens for south 
central and southeast Kansas overnight; these temperatures combined 
with 10 mph winds result in wind chills near zero or just below zero 
for Monday morning. One may consider adding another layer when 
heading out the door. Snow is possible primarily in central Kansas 
on Monday as well with only a trace of accumulation expected.   

There is another trough that has just made its way to the West 
Coast, and this system will push its way from Rockies on Tuesday and 
northeast on Wednesday. As this trough moves east, there will be an 
influx of moisture and forcing lending to chances for precipitation 
on Tuesday into Wednesday with the highest chances in the afternoon 
and evening hours of Tuesday. Confidence persists in the presence of 
the precipitation though adjustments have been made to exit the 
activity quicker than the previous forecast. 

The type of precipitation is definitely the question with this 
round. While the surface temperatures will be below freezing for 
most of the area, it is the thermal profile that suggest a mixture 
in the respective type. There is a dependency on the presence of 
saturation in the dendritic growth zone which appears to diminish in 
the evening. The NAM is quicker to get rid of the cloud ice. As 
mentioned in the previous discussion, this could be lead to a 
freezing rain and drizzle scenario with the better chances for 
drizzle after midnight on Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Total snow 
accumulations range from roughly and inch to three inches for 
this timeframe. Locally higher amounts are possible. The highest 
amounts are anticipated to stay in the northeast portion of 
Kansas. On the other hand, the freezing rain possibility in south 
central and southeast Kansas could bring ice accumulations up to a
tenth of an inch. As stated previously, a Winter Weather Advisory
would be warranted if the forecast persists in this direction. 
Given the differences in the thermal profiles, please stay tuned 
for updates to this part of the forecast and its potential 
impacts. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Precipitation should exit by Wednesday morning for the morning 
commute; however, there could be impacts such as slick spots on the 
roadways. In the extended, multiple rounds of precipitation are 
possible at the end of the week. There could be rain, snow or a 
mixture of rain and snow. Daytime temperatures above freezing will 
allow for a rain scenario. Again this forecast has adjusted the 
chances for precipitation for this period. Its location at the end 
of the forecast only further suggests that changes are guaranteed
in the coming days, so please stay tuned for updates. Highs from 
Thursday thru Sunday are expected to be in the upper 30s to upper 
40s each day. Another warm up would be nice. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Pesky low clouds the main concern in the near term. Corridor of
MVFR clouds extending from KRSL-KGBD-KHUT-KICT has been on the
increase this morning, despite model trends to the contrary.
Cyclonic 850mb flow and surface heating will likely keep clouds 
around for much of the afternoon. While clouds should wane with 
loss of heating, approaching wave will result in decreasing 
ceilings starting around 0900 UTC, with light snow developing and 
spreading east. Snow is most likely at KGBD-KRSL-KSLN tomorrow
morning. Low level dry air makes that a tougher call at KICT and 
KHUT, however the 1200 UTC models have less dry air and are more 
keen on developing light snow. If more than flurries occur, MVFR
conditions are likely. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 353 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Multiple chances of precipitation lead to lower chances of fire 
weather concerns throughout this entire forecast. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    16  29  19  32 /   0  20  10  80 
Hutchinson      14  25  17  30 /  10  20  20  80 
Newton          13  27  18  30 /  10  20  10  80 
ElDorado        15  28  20  32 /   0  10  10  80 
Winfield-KWLD   17  34  21  33 /   0  10  10  90 
Russell          9  21  14  24 /  40  30  30  70 
Great Bend      11  22  14  25 /  40  40  30  70 
Salina          11  24  16  28 /  10  20  20  70 
McPherson       12  23  17  29 /  10  20  20  70 
Coffeyville     18  34  23  37 /   0   0  10  90 
Chanute         16  30  21  35 /   0   0  10  80 
Iola            15  29  20  33 /   0   0  10  80 
Parsons-KPPF    17  32  23  36 /   0   0  10  90 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...VJP