Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 220457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1157 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Low level moisture will begin to recover and return on Wednesday 
afternoon across south central/southeast Kansas. Models show decent 
isentropic lift with-in (305K-315K) layer east of the Kansas 
turnpike which looks to generate elevated thunderstorms, however 
strong daytime heating could give way to some of this activity 
becoming surface-based. Shear/instability support rotating updrafts 
storms with severe weather likely with large hail/damaging winds. If 
a storm can become surface based and discrete then there is 
potential for a tornado in mainly southeast Kansas. 

Meanwhile the storms look to increase in coverage for Wednesday 
night with moisture transport axis increasing and expanding to the 
west. This signature looks to persist into Thursday night which 
could create another prolonged period of heavy rainfall for mainly 
central/south central KS. A Flash Flood Watch may need to be hoisted 
once again if the model signals continue and given current flooding 
from saturated ground soils. 

In addition, there is a risk for more severe weather to also occur 
on Thursday and Friday thus will continue to highlight that 
potential. Predicting the severe weather setup/favorable areas this 
far out will be a challenge given the possibility of numerous 
showers/storms disturbing the environment. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Long range models maintain an active weather pattern signal for the 
weekend into early next week across central/southern plains. This is 
due to 850mb high pressure parked in place across the southeastern 
states causing a tenacious deep fetch of rich Gulf moisture to 
stream northward across TX,OK, and KS. Also a persistent southwest 
flow aloft from upper troughing over the western states will eject 
occasional upper level waves and interact with this deep moisture. 
Therefore we expect more rounds of severe weather and flooding to 
impact Kansas. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

A few light rain showers and sprinkles remain across central KS
but should slowly dissipate as we move into the overnight hours as the
mid/upper trough lifts north and east away from the area. This 
will result in VFR through the night with light westerly winds. 
Afternoon thunderstorms may return to portions of south central 
and southeast KS on Wed afternoon as southerly winds bring low
level moisture back into the area. Confidence in coverage of
storms remains fairly low at this time.


Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Areal and river flooding will continue to affect much of the
region for the next couple of days and likely extend into the 
weekend for some locations. Another concern is for more heavy 
rainfall to affect the region for Wednesday night through Thursday
night. Which would only worsen the flooding situation and a Flash
Flood Watch may need to be hoisted again for much of the area. 
The weather pattern is supportive of more rounds of showers and 
thunderstorms for central, south central, and southeast Kansas 
through early next week. If this happens some flooding could 
become very significant across the region.


Wichita-KICT    47  78  67  79 /  20  10  30  50 
Hutchinson      45  77  63  78 /  20  10  30  60 
Newton          46  77  65  78 /  20  10  30  50 
ElDorado        48  78  66  79 /  10  20  40  50 
Winfield-KWLD   50  81  68  81 /  10  20  40  40 
Russell         40  73  57  71 /  40   0  30  70 
Great Bend      42  75  59  72 /  30   0  40  70 
Salina          44  75  61  76 /  40  10  40  60 
McPherson       45  77  62  76 /  30  10  40  60 
Coffeyville     54  82  69  84 /   0  30  50  30 
Chanute         52  81  67  83 /   0  20  50  30 
Iola            52  81  66  82 /   0  20  50  30 
Parsons-KPPF    53  81  68  83 /   0  30  50  30