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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 160451
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1151 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) 
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Currently have northwest flow aloft over the Plains with surface
high pressure centered over the OK/TX Panhandle. 

Not much is expected to change in the overall pattern for the next
48 hours as an upper impulse tracks out of southern Canada and
into the Upper Mississippi Valley which will allow northwest flow
aloft to remain in place. Will finally start to see temps moderate
close to seasonal normals for Sat and Sun with highs near the 60
degree mark. Also for a change, will see relatively light winds 
this weekend. There is some agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in
some shortwave energy tracking out of the Northern Rockies and
into southwest Nebraska/northwest KS Mon evening. This feature
will bring us our next chance at precip, generally for the Mon 
night into Tue time frame. While precip type looks like mostly
rain, not out of the question to see some light snow mixing in
over the northern portions of the forecast area. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Friday) 
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

While both the ECMWF and GFS track an upper impulse out of 
Manitoba and into the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley for Tue into
Wed, the ECMWF is much more robust with this feature. It tracks a
much more intense upper feature over eastern KS/western MO late 
Tue night which would result in cooler temps Wed into Thu. Next 
weather system to keep an eye on will be a shortwave trough set to
move out into the Plains for Thu night into Fri. The GFS remains 
faster with this wave compared to the ECMWF, and would bring in 
precip early Fri morning while the ECMWF would wait until Fri 
afternoon/evening. Will be something to keep an eye on for later 
forecasts. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period as
the surface ridge moves across area overnight. Weak front will 
move into central KS in the afternoon, reaching KICT and KCNU near
the end of the forecast. Only some middle clouds are anticipated
during the late afternoon/early evening. -Howerton 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Light winds and seasonal temperatures will keep the fire danger threat
in check through the weekend and into next week. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    29  61  33  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      27  60  31  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          29  58  32  56 /   0   0   0   0 
ElDorado        28  59  33  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   28  61  33  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         27  56  28  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Great Bend      27  56  29  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          28  58  28  55 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       27  59  30  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     28  61  33  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Chanute         27  60  32  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Iola            27  59  32  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    27  61  33  59 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...RBL