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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 231742
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Today-Tonight:
Initial concern is potential for fog, given moist ground and
nearly saturated upslope flow. Best chance for fog is across
middle of forecast area where temperatures have radiated a bit
cooler. In absence of extensive cirrus would be inclined to hoist
advisory. Otherwise will keep small chances for storms in far
southeast KS for a few hours. Expect storms in northwest KS to
wane just prior to reaching central KS per preponderance of
guidance. Most of the area should remain dry during the afternoon,
with chances ramping up later tonight. While some elevated storms
are possible in southeast KS, better chance will be with
anticipated complex moving southeast and likely clipping western
half of the area after midnight.

Saturday-Sunday:
Rain/storms will continue on Saturday morning with clearing likely
faster than forecast during the afternoon. Another round of
nocturnal storms is anticipated Saturday night as weak upper
closed low/circulation moves along KS/Nebraska border. Again
expect clearing during the day probably faster than forecast. Some
small chances for storms late Sunday night, mainly in northeast
sections, but would not be surprised if later forecast shunt this
area east. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Despite early surface ridge, pattern favors a lower predictability
regime given diffluent northwest to west northwest flow. Consensus
is likely overdone with extent of precipitation. Appears better 
chances will be on Monday afternoon-evening. GFS/ECMWF diverge 
with surface boundary by Tuesday, with GFS pushing surface high 
east and setting up return flow and moisture. ECMWF holds surface 
ridge and keeps forecast dry starting Tuesday. ECMWF does suggest 
storms in northern OK could flirt with the KS border Tuesday 
night. Temperatures will be strongly influenced by any 
clouds/convective debris during the period and surface boundary 
position late in this period. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

MVFR conditions are expected to be the dominate category for this
TAF period. Mid and low level clouds will persist for much of the
afternoon and into the night with many of the terminals 
temporarily going into IFR conditions then back to MVFR. ICT is 
the only terminal expected to continually go back and forth from 
MVFR and IFR during the early afternoon before seeing some 
scattered decks in the mid to late afternoon. During the 
overnight, most terminals are expected to drop into IFR 
conditions. Additionally, another wave of energy will be pushing 
through the region during the overnight. Showers and thunderstorms
will again become possible with RSL and the GBD terminals likely 
to see the showers and possibly thunderstorms toward morning 
tomorrow. 

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  70  82  66 /  10  30  40  50 
Hutchinson      84  69  81  66 /  10  40  50  50 
Newton          82  69  80  66 /  10  30  40  50 
ElDorado        81  70  80  67 /  10  20  30  50 
Winfield-KWLD   83  70  82  67 /  10  20  30  50 
Russell         82  69  79  65 /  30  50  40  50 
Great Bend      83  69  82  65 /  20  50  40  50 
Salina          83  69  80  67 /  30  30  30  50 
McPherson       83  69  80  65 /  20  30  50  50 
Coffeyville     82  70  83  68 /  20  20  40  50 
Chanute         81  69  81  67 /  20  20  40  50 
Iola            81  68  80  67 /  20  30  40  40 
Parsons-KPPF    81  70  82  67 /  20  20  40  50 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ELM