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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 152059
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
359 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Breezy, warm, and dry conditions should prevail through Tuesday. The 
only possible exception is the I-70 corridor where a front settling 
south out of Nebraska may keep temperatures at bay some for Tuesday. 
We still expect an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms 
Wednesday and Wednesday night, some of which could be strong to 
severe. Where the greatest threat resides is still less certain, but 
may tend to be focused over southern Kansas. Cooler air arrives in 
the wake of the Wednesday system, but will be followed by 
moderating temperatures for the upcoming Easter weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

The forecast over the next few days remains uncertain, especially as 
it pertains to the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms. This 
afternoon, a cold front stretches from Nebraska west to the High 
Plains of Wyoming/Colorado. This front will continue to push south 
through Tuesday morning, but its overall progression south should be 
slow given the zonal flow aloft. Models differ on just how far south 
it will get which leads to a lower confidence temp forecast for our 
I-70 counties. For now, the forecast leans towards the front 
nearing, or getting just south of, Russell, before stalling or 
perhaps even lifting a bit north of there. Because of this, 
temperatures in that area were nudged up a bit from the previous 
forecast. The NAM is the most aggressive with the push south and 
even suggests some low clouds/drizzle just north of the front. We'll 
hold off on any drizzle mention for now with the assumption that the 
front will be near or just north of the area.

Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a strong shortwave diving 
southeast and is just about to reach the CA coastline. This wave 
will continue to dig SE through Tuesday night, then lift NE across 
the Plains on Wednesday. While subtle, model guidance continues to 
trend a bit slower and further south with this feature. There has 
also been a less phased/slower phasing with a northern stream wave, 
ultimately leading to a not as deep SFC low by THU. 

Given this trend, it is possible the strongest low/mid level 
convergence will be focused a bit further south compared to previous 
runs which consequently puts the higher chance of showers/storms and 
better QPF further south as well. It should be noted that since the 
southward trend has continued, later model runs may continue this 
shift with the axis of highest precip amounts also continuing to 
shift south.

As mentioned above, this also complicates the severe thunderstorm 
potential. Forecast soundings in Deep South Texas reveal increasing 
dewpoints, but poor moisture quality. While the low level flow will 
continue to be generally out of the south through Wednesday, there 
remains uncertainties regarding the return of quality moisture as 
far north as Kansas. Deep layer shear on the order of 35-45kt should 
be more than adequate for organized convection, but the degree of 
instability and strength of the cap makes initiation location 
Wednesday afternoon less certain. As previously mentioned, 
convergence may be more focused over southern Kansas, especially if 
the triple point ends up tracking further south. Even with lower 
quality moisture, this should prove sufficient for 
initiation/maintenance of convection when combined with large-scale 
forcing for ascent. We'll continue to message the potential of 
strong/severe storms, but it is important to keep the limitations 
and uncertainties in mind. Based on the latest guidance and all of 
the above, we'll plan to focus the severe threat to south-central 
and southeast Kansas with large hail and damaging winds still as the 
primary threats. Please continue to check back for updates regarding 
this potential.

Martin

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

In the wake of the mid-week system, cooler temperatures and gusty 
winds are still expected on Thursday along with a few lingering 
showers possible. However, a less deep system may tend to keep the 
threat of Wind Advisory level winds lower. Return flow will lead to 
moderating temperatures and increasing moisture by the weekend. The 
next wave to impact the area looks to come late in the weekend or 
early next week with another opportunity for showers and 
thunderstorms.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Primary aviation concerns: gusty winds and LLWS

A lee-side surface trough will push east over the next 24 hours as
a cold front drops south out of Nebraska. A tighter pressure
gradient east of these features will promote gusty winds through
tomorrow. In addition, a strengthening S/SW low-level jet will
lead to LLWS conditions this evening through tonight, especially
along and east of the KS Turnpike. By 12z TUE, the cold front will
be nearing KRSL. At this time, it is expected to push just south
of KRSL with a northerly wind shift and potentially some lower
clouds there. What is less certain is how far south the front
gets. For now, we'll keep the winds S/SW at KGBD/KSLN, but this
may need adjustments in later forecasts. Lastly, some model
guidance suggests MVFR or lower CIGS near/north of the cold front,
but the amount of low-level moisture may be overdone and we'll
hold off on introducing MVFR CIGs with this forecast issuance.

Martin


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon across far southeast
Kansas due to lower RH and gusty S/SW winds. Gusty winds and
relatively dry conditions will continue on Tuesday, especially
along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. An increased risk of
showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday through Thursday.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  79  61  77 /   0   0  10  40 
Hutchinson      58  80  60  75 /   0  10  10  40 
Newton          59  79  60  76 /   0   0  10  40 
ElDorado        60  79  62  76 /   0   0  10  40 
Winfield-KWLD   61  78  62  77 /   0   0  10  40 
Russell         46  77  57  73 /   0  10  20  30 
Great Bend      49  81  57  74 /   0  10  10  40 
Salina          54  82  61  77 /   0  10  20  40 
McPherson       57  80  60  76 /   0  10  10  40 
Coffeyville     58  76  63  77 /   0   0  10  40 
Chanute         59  77  63  76 /   0   0  10  40 
Iola            58  77  62  75 /   0   0  20  40 
Parsons-KPPF    59  76  63  76 /   0   0  10  40 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM
FIRE WEATHER...RM