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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 142104
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
304 PM CST Thu Feb 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 303 PM CST Thu Feb 14 2019

Water vapor imagery shows an impulse moving into the Upper
Mississippi Valley with additional shortwave energy coming onshore
over the western CONUS and will be approaching the Great Basin
tonight. At the surface, a strong cold front stretches from south
of Kansas City to near Wichita and into western KS. 

Strong cold front will continue pushing south this evening and
move through the entire forecast area by 03z. As fast moving 
shortwave approaches western KS, mid level warm 
advection/isentropic lift will ramp up after 06z which should 
result in light snow developing west of I-135 around sunrise with 
snow quickly spreading northeast as the afternoon hours approach.

Unlike the last few events, feel that snow will be the initial
precip type since models agree on plenty of mid level saturation
and lift in the snow growth region. Still looks like northeast
portion of forecast area will have the higher snow totals due to
longer duration of lift along with moisture being deeper. Still 
looks like we may get a brief period of freezing drizzle in the 
afternoon over mainly southern KS as we lose cloud ice with the 
bulk of the saturation and lift shifting to generally around or 
below 850mb. Like our last freezing drizzle event, temps should be
cold enough at the surface so that some very small snow grains or
snow may mix with the freezing drizzle at times. With mix of 
winter precip types causing travel issues, feel going advisory 
looks good. Didn't tweak snow amounts too much, with higher 
amounts generally in the 2-4 inch range over extreme northeast 
fringe of forecast area with most locations picking up an inch or 
less. One of the changes to the previous forecast was to move 
precip out quicker with most of it out of the area by 00z Sat. 

Expecting a break in precip on Fri night into Sat morning with
another fast moving shortwave expected to move out into the high
Plains by Sat afternoon. There is some model agreement in the
higher precip chances generally north of the forecast area, over
Nebraska into northern KS. With most of the cloud ice staying just
north of the area, feel that any precip that falls along and north
of I-70 may fall as a freezing drizzle/snow mix, depending how
cold we get at the surface. The shortwave will also act to keep
the cold air well entrenched across the Plains through the weekend
into the start of the work week. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Thu Feb 14 2019

Arctic airmass will remain in place over the Plains to start the
work week as another more robust upper trough starts to dig over
the desert southwest. This will result in mid level flow backing
around to the southwest which may setup an overrunning scenario
Mon into Mon night, especially across western KS. The upper
dynamics look to lift out Tue into Tue night which will increase 
winter precip chances across the entire area with this timeframe 
being our next chance for impactful winter wx. Pattern looks to 
remain active, as yet another upper trough starts to take shape 
over the western CONUS for the end of the work week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Thu Feb 14 2019

Gusty winds this afternoon, then MVFR/IFR conditions likely 
areawide on Friday.

An initial wind shift to the NW early this afternoon will be
followed by stronger cold air advection aloft, producing at least
a brief period of gusty winds (similar to what is currently being
experienced along/south of the NE/KS line as of this writing).
That cold air will set the stage for a wintry mix of snow, sleet,
and perhaps some FZRA on Friday. There is still some uncertainty
in the precip type and how low CIGS and VIS will fall, so for now
the TAFs will reflect a lowering of CIGs to MVFR and VIS into the
the IFR/MVFR range. These conditions could end up lower than
currently forecast, so stay tuned for later updates. Dry air looks
to quickly move in just beyond the current TAF cycle, with
improving conditions from west to east around or just after 18z.

Martin


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM CST Thu Feb 14 2019

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain on the low side for
the next several days.

Much colder air will be spreading over the entire area starting
this evening and continuing into next week. This will keep RH
values on the higher side. In addition, much of the area will pick
up some winter precip Fri and then again Tue into Tue night which
should keep grounds saturated. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    24  27  16  34 /  30  80   0  10 
Hutchinson      22  26  14  32 /  40  70   0  10 
Newton          20  25  14  31 /  30  80  10  20 
ElDorado        22  26  15  33 /  20  90  10  20 
Winfield-KWLD   25  30  18  36 /  30  60   0  10 
Russell         18  22  13  29 /  50  90   0  20 
Great Bend      20  23  13  31 /  50  60   0  10 
Salina          18  22  12  29 /  30 100  10  30 
McPherson       20  24  12  30 /  30  80  10  20 
Coffeyville     26  31  19  39 /  10  90  10  10 
Chanute         22  27  17  34 /  10  90  10  20 
Iola            21  25  16  33 /  10 100  10  20 
Parsons-KPPF    24  29  18  37 /  10  90  10  20 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...RM
FIRE WEATHER...RBL