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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 172100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Forecast Highlight(s): Severe Thunderstorms Capable Of All Modes
To Impact Most Areas Tue & Tue Night.

This Evening:
A weak mid-level low that remains situated over the corners of NE
OK, NW AR & SE MO may provide just enough lift to 'spark' a few
thunderstorms over SE KS. Should the thunderstorms develop, they
would dissipate around sunset.

A mid-level shortwave that'll develop from SE WY to NE CO will
slowly strengthen as it drifts across the CO/KS border.
Thunderstorms that have already developed along the CO/KS border
will spread slowly E & may reach as far as Lincoln & Ellsworth
Counties by daybreak. The thunderstorms may produce penny-sized
hail and 40-50 mph winds.

Tue & Tue Night:
These periods cause the greatest concern. The mid-level shortwave
crossing the CO/KS border will continue to strengthen as it moves
along the KS/Nebraska border. This would induce warm frontogenesis
along the KS/Nebraska border on Tue along which a moisture pool
would increase. All would combine with ample heating to induce
thunderstorms to increase considerably, especially across Northern
& Central KS. The mid-level shortwave & the presence of the warm
front would induce markedly increasing deep-layer shear across KS,
especially the directional variant. Thunderstorms are likely to be
severe with hail around the size of ping pong balls, damaging
winds, heavy-very heavy rains & a few tornadoes across all of the
central third of KS. As such the "Severe" descriptor has been
extended N across all of Central KS. As the mid-level shortwave
crosses the KS/MO border Tue Night, the warm front would evolve
into a weak cold front that'll scoot SE across KS Tue night. The
greatest thunderstorm potential would likewise shift slowly E/SE
later Tue night. Flooding already occurred across much of SC & SE
KS from Sat night to last night & with moisture content continuing
to increase across the eastern half of KS the heavy rain potential
would likewise continue to increase. A Flood/Flash Flood Watch was
considered for all areas as far W as I-35/I-135 for Tue Night but
this would've caused collaboration issues. The flood/flash flood
threat will be strongly worded in the HWO.

Wed-Thu Night:
Thunderstorms will become much more scattered as focusing
mechanisms diminish.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Long range models show a decent cold front pushing across Kansas 
next weekend. This would increase thunderstorm chances along with
severe weather potential given very unstable airmass and stronger
winds aloft on Saturday. Frontal position/timing is more uncertain
for Sunday. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Diurnal heating may result in some widely scattered showers this
afternoon, most likely across portions of southeast KS where VCSH
was maintained at KCNU. Other more isolated showers may impact
portions of south central KS but coverage is expected to remain
fairly limited. Late tonight we could see some additional activity
drift eastward off the high plains mainly impacting portions of
our central KS counties. Better chances for more widespread
strong and severe storms will arrive after 21-22Z on Tue.


Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

The onsetting heavy-very heavy rains will cause most rivers to
rise to the occasion. Further River Flood Warnings are possible so
stay tuned.


Wichita-KICT    64  82  64  81 /  10  40  80  10 
Hutchinson      64  81  62  79 /  20  50  80  10 
Newton          63  80  63  78 /  10  40  80  10 
ElDorado        62  80  64  79 /  10  30  80  20 
Winfield-KWLD   63  82  64  81 /  10  20  80  20 
Russell         65  79  59  78 /  40  70  60  20 
Great Bend      65  80  60  79 /  40  60  60  10 
Salina          65  79  62  79 /  20  60  80  10 
McPherson       64  80  62  78 /  20  50  80  10 
Coffeyville     63  83  67  83 /  20  10  90  40 
Chanute         62  82  65  81 /  20  20  90  40 
Iola            62  82  65  81 /  20  20  90  40 
Parsons-KPPF    62  82  66  83 /  20  10  90  40