Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 141956
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
256 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Main challenge/concerns are convective chances/trends through the 
weekend. Focus for convection late this afternoon will be across the 
central high Plains. Elevated moisture transport on the low level 
jet through early tonight across central Kansas should maintain 
strong to severe convection perhaps as far east as the turnpike 
corridor before waning across the Flint Hills/southeast Kansas. 
Damaging winds look to be the main threat with risk for marginally 
severe hail as well. After the convection exits the area stage right 
by early Saturday morning, much of the daylight hours may be 
precip-free across the forecast south of the effective surface 
front, which looks to be situated across central Kansas. Warming 
aloft should be sufficient to cap the airmass for surface based 
convection until very late in the afternoon. However, diurnal 
heating will result in strong instability by early evening just 
south of the front, where local convergence could initiate 
isolated to widely scattered storms. The strong instability will 
make up for the rather modest deep layer shear, supporting a
conditional risk for severe hail and wind. A more organized 
complex of convection and severe risk may develop over southern 
Kansas into northern Oklahoma later Saturday evening into the 
overnight. The effective surface front looks to move only slightly
south to along or just south of the Oklahoma border into Sunday 
as embedded mesoscale vortices in vicinity of the main eastward 
drifting mid/upper level shortwave traverses over the 
central/southern Plains through Sunday night. So, will maintain 
the relatively better convective chances/QPF across southern 
Kansas. The better chances look to push south and east of the area
on Monday, though will maintain slight to modest chances PoPs. 

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

A rather unsettled pattern looks to continue through at least the 
middle of next week as periodic upper shortwaves traverse over a 
moist/unstable airmass. Temperatures should remain at or just 
below seasonal climo. 

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Strong/gusty south winds will subside some by early to mid this
evening. Thunderstorm chances will increase from west to east
across the region this evening and tonight. The strongest activity
will be capable of 50-70 mph winds, locally heavy rain and large
hail. The greatest severe risk will be generally before midnight
west of the Flint Hills corridor. Included VCTS to account for 
this threat, although envision amendments for TEMPO +TSRA and 
strong variable winds will eventually be needed.

Kleinsasser

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  89  67  84 /  50  20  60  40 
Hutchinson      66  88  65  82 /  60  20  50  40 
Newton          67  88  65  82 /  60  20  60  40 
ElDorado        68  87  66  83 /  50  20  60  50 
Winfield-KWLD   68  88  66  84 /  50  10  50  50 
Russell         62  88  62  83 /  70  20  30  20 
Great Bend      63  88  62  82 /  70  20  40  20 
Salina          66  90  65  84 /  60  20  40  30 
McPherson       65  88  64  82 /  60  20  50  30 
Coffeyville     70  88  68  85 /  30  30  60  50 
Chanute         69  87  67  83 /  30  30  60  60 
Iola            68  87  67  83 /  30  30  70  50 
Parsons-KPPF    69  87  68  84 /  30  30  70  60 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ADK