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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 180545
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Similar to yesterday, elevated convection continues to fester over 
southeast Kansas this afternoon. Another surface outflow boundary
from the early morning convection has weakened across northern 
Oklahoma. Pressure perturbation in its wake has resulted in 
stronger southerly flow again, and should advect richer surface 
moisture/dew points northward into southern Kansas during the 
evening. Convective inhibition may weaken enough to allow for 
a few storms to develop into far southern Kansas, though better
chances this evening across northwest/north central Oklahoma. 
Any surface based convection will be capable of down-burst winds 
and hail. Otherwise, perhaps deja vu again for late this evening 
and overnight, with high Plains convection rolling east-southeast
across north central into eastern Kansas with mainly a strong to 
damaging wind threat. Lingering elevated moisture transport on the
veered/waning low level jet Sunday morning should keep convection
going mainly along/east of the Kansas turnpike. A secondary weak 
cold front is progged to drop south across Kansas and position 
roughly along the turnpike corridor by late afternoon. This 
should be the focus for late day and overnight convection into 
Sunday night. The upper ridge will build in over the central 
Plains on Monday with warming aloft likely squelching convective 
potential or limiting to isolated activity. Dew points look to 
also turn-up as well as the heat, resulting in heat indices at or 
above 105 across southern Kansas. Tuesday looks even hotter with 
the highest heat indices along and east of I-135. A heat advisory
will be considered with later forecasts.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Deeper troughing from eastern Canada across the Great Lakes from
Wednesday into Thursday will allow a decent cold front and cooler
air to advect south across the Midwest and portion of the Plains. 
This will send temperatures back closer to seasonal climo with 
modest precip/convective chances along the frontal boundary over
the area. Somewhat less confidence on the sensible weather late
in the week, though fairly seasonal with muted chances for 
measurable precip. 

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Multiple (+)TSRA, several that are SVR with 50-60kt gusts, surging
ESE ~40kts in a training manner from around KHYS thru KEWK to near
KEQA. The training cells are being sustained by a SSW 40-50kt LLJ
that continues to inject ultra-rich moisture into KS. (+)TSRA will
impact nearly all areas thru 10-12Z with the TSRA clearing KCNU at
12Z. Vsbys as low as 1SM & cigs ~2,000ft have been encountered
where +TSRA are occurring. Once the (+)TSRA clear KS this morning
VFR would prevail in all areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  96  72  96 /  40  20  10   0 
Hutchinson      70  95  69  96 /  60  10  10   0 
Newton          70  94  70  94 /  60  20  10   0 
ElDorado        71  94  72  94 /  50  30  20  10 
Winfield-KWLD   74  95  73  96 /  30  20  20   0 
Russell         67  90  65  95 /  70   0   0   0 
Great Bend      68  92  66  96 /  50   0   0   0 
Salina          69  92  68  94 /  80  20   0   0 
McPherson       69  93  68  94 /  80  20  10   0 
Coffeyville     75  93  75  94 /  30  30  30  10 
Chanute         71  92  73  93 /  60  40  30  10 
Iola            71  91  73  92 /  60  40  30  10 
Parsons-KPPF    70  92  74  93 /  40  30  30  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...EPS