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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 161804
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
104 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Today:
Anticipating an overall downtrend in coverage/intensity through 
mid morning as instability is consumed by ongoing convection. 
Extensive clouds and higher dew points will likely cut into high 
temperatures in southeast KS once again. Given weak forcing, not 
expecting more than isolated-scattered storms later this 
afternoon, if any. 

Tonight-Monday:
Storms are more likely tonight. While magnitude of low level jet
is a bit questionable, thinking this may be offset by boundary
and/or upper low circulation either over or just south of
southeast KS. This could bring another round of storms and locally
heavy rain to a small part of southeast KS. There is also
considerable uncertainty how far west/north any precipitation
would extend/expand. Anticipate day shift will make significant
changes to area/probabilities as confidence in model runs tonight
is lacking.

Tuesday:
Both GFS/ECMWF show decent shortwave moving through late
Tuesday/Tuesday night, which should result in a good chance for
strong-severe storms. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Appears there would be brief reprieve in rain behind the 
departing shortwave on Wednesday and into Thursday. However with 
the return to more zonal flow, the potential for mainly nocturnal 
storms will return by Thursday night and continue into the 
weekend. Overall there is a bit better agreement between 
GFS/ECMWF tonight, although this wanes on Fri/Sat. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Main Hazards: 
Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening, and some 
potential for MVFR ceilings early Monday morning.

A weakened stationary front extends roughly along a line from just
south of Great Bend to Emporia, to near KLXT (Missouri). The airmass
will be very moist and marginally unstable along and to the south
of this front where scattered thunderstorms will be likely this 
afternoon and evening. Isolated strong wind gusts and downpours
will be the main threats, which could affect the HUT, ICT and CNU
terminals. Otherwise a few showers could linger in the south
overnight into Monday morning. Boundary layer moisture will be
very high late tonight into early Monday morning, especially
along/southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. This could support stratus
development (most likely MVFR), however confidence is low at this
time due to the potential for layered mid-high level cloud cover
from the upper low over Oklahoma. So have left this out of the
CNU and ICT terminals for this 18z issuance. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    79  66  85  65 /  30  20  20  30 
Hutchinson      82  63  85  64 /  30  20  10  40 
Newton          81  65  84  64 /  30  20  20  30 
ElDorado        78  64  83  64 /  30  20  20  20 
Winfield-KWLD   76  63  83  65 /  40  20  20  20 
Russell         86  63  84  62 /  10  10  10  60 
Great Bend      85  62  85  63 /  10  10  10  60 
Salina          87  63  86  64 /  10  10  10  40 
McPherson       85  62  85  64 /  20  10  10  40 
Coffeyville     76  65  83  65 /  50  30  40  10 
Chanute         79  66  83  64 /  40  30  30  10 
Iola            80  66  83  63 /  30  30  30  10 
Parsons-KPPF    77  65  83  64 /  40  30  40  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...JMC