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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 192338
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Much above normal temperatures are expected for the next couple of 
days, as an upper level ridge shifts over the plains.  This will 
lead to a nice warm advection pattern for most of the region, 
beginning tonight and lasting through most of the day on Sat. Expect 
moderating temps tonight, with a mostly clear moon filled night. 

Expect much warmer temps on Sat as south-southwest downslope flow 
leads to max temps climbing into the lower 80s for portions of 
central KS. Expect max temps in the middle 70s elsewhere. 

The warm advection may lead to increasing mid layer clouds for Sat 
night, and even a few showers/storms for NE KS, but think most of 
this activity will stay to the northeast of the forecast area.  

The above normal temps will continue on Sunday, as mid-upper flow 
shifts back to SW. This will lead to another good downslope day with 
portions of south central KS climbing into the lower 80s.  

A shortwave in the SW flow will lead to a low pressure area 
developing over western KS, with a pronounced dry line pushing into 
western sections of the forecast area for Sun afternoon. This will 
lead to some unsettled weather returning to portions of the area for 
Sun afternoon/evening. Still some uncertainty on IF any shower and 
thunderstorm chances will evolve for Sun afternoon, as a fairly 
pronounced elevated mixed layer (capping inversion) may keep 
convection from developing. Instability (GFS shows 2000 J/KG of 
MLCAPE) and directional shear looks good enough for a few strong to 
severe storms, but bulk shear looks marginal for widespread severe 
storms (around 20-25kts), but think this chance will be highly 
conditional on the cap eroding enough for storms to develop. So plan 
on keeping the pops rather low with the better chance for convection 
remaining to the north of the forecast area (closer to the triple 
point), across northern KS.  

As the low pressure area sweeps east-northeast into SW Iowa, expect 
a cold front to push southeast across the area for Mon afternoon. 
Latest model trends suggests a moderately unstable airmass will be 
located across the Flint Hills and southeast KS for Mon afternoon, 
but again a fairly pronounced elevated mixed layer will again lead 
to a highly conditional chance of a few strong/severe storms, for 
late Mon afternoon. 

As the cold front pushes south to along the KS/OK border, another 
shortwave in the SW flow will lead to boundary stalling along the 
KS/OK border for late Mon night into early Tue morning.  This sets 
up an overrunning shower and embedded thunderstorm chance for most 
of southern KS as warm advection over the top of the boundary 
increases late Mon night through early Tue morning. 

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Lots of uncertainty on how the middle of week will unfold. Medium 
range models show a shortwave in the southern Rockies will progress 
across the southern plains, but the models differ on how far north 
into KS the low level moisture will venture on the north side of the 
system. For now it appears it will remain unsettled with a few 
rounds of showers and possibly some thunderstorms.   

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

There will be excellent weather across KS thru late Sat night & 
likely beyond as a massive upper-level high pressure ridge spreads
E across the Great Plains. A sfc trof that'll develop along the
Front Range late tonight & early Sat morning would induce winds to
become southerly & increase to 13-17kts sustained with ~22kt gusts
by 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Fire weather concerns will remain low through much of the 
upcoming week, especially in areas across south central and 
southeast KS that received beneficial rainfall recently.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  78  56  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Hutchinson      43  79  56  83 /   0   0   0  10 
Newton          42  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0 
ElDorado        42  77  57  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   42  78  57  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Russell         42  84  55  84 /   0   0   0  10 
Great Bend      42  83  55  85 /   0   0   0  10 
Salina          42  81  56  84 /   0   0   0  10 
McPherson       42  79  56  82 /   0   0   0  10 
Coffeyville     40  75  56  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Chanute         40  75  55  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Iola            40  74  55  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    40  74  56  80 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham