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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 170833

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Main concern is severe weather potential/magnitude late this
afternoon and evening across south central/southeast Kansas. 
The upper low over Arizona early this morning will move steadily
eastward today to the southern high Plains by early evening. The
airmass is expected to become moderately to very unstable later 
this afternoon along and just ahead of the surface cold front as 
it moves across central Kansas. Forcing for ascent ahead of the 
upper trof and frontal convergence will result in convective 
initiation by late afternoon or early evening across the area. 
Initial updrafts in the presence of decent low level cape and
sufficient deep layer shear will have the potential for large
hail. However, the orientation of the shear vectors more parallel
to the surface front and propensity of convection to become more
numerous along the front, the large hail risk may be limited in
time and space. Some potential may also exist for locally damaging
winds during the evening with the evolution to a more linear
storm mode eventually into southeast Kansas. As transient 
frontogenetical forcing and lift coincides within a region of weak
to modest instability behind the front across south central and 
southeast Kansas, locally heavy rainfall remains a concern 
for locations generally south of the highway 50 corridor through
the evening.

The main change to the forecast in the near term is for a chance
for diurnal showers across the area Thursday afternoon. This is in
response to the northern stream upper trof digging across the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The combination of cold air
aloft, marginal moisture and diurnal heating should result in
widely scattered showers in the northerly flow regime. While winds
are expected to be gusty, the drier sub-cloud air could also
result in accelerated wind gusts with any showers on Thursday.
Dry weather and near seasonal temperatures are expected Friday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

A return southerly low level flow and ridging aloft will result in
a dry and warmer Saturday with high temperatures back above
seasonal climo. A series of upper shortwaves look to migrate 
eastward over the Plains late in the weekend through early next
week. This will bring back periodic unsettled weather with the 
possibility of strong storms, though any severe risk looks rather
low at this time.



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

Low level moisture continues to work north with some transient
MVFR cigs impacting much of central and south central KS tonight.
These cigs will gradually build eastward into southeast KS 
during the predawn hours and into the morning hours on Wed. 
Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely after 
22Z or so across south central KS and after 23-01Z over southeast 
KS. MVFR cigs will be common with pockets of IFR likely under the
heavier showers and storms. A cold front will move slowly south
and east shifting winds to the northwest. The front will impact
KRSL, KSLN and KGBD during the afternoon hours while impacting
south central KS and southeast KS during the evening hours.


Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Widespread significant rainfall is expected from late this 
afternoon through early tonight across south central and southeast
Kansas. Scattered rainfall is also expected further north this 
afternoon and early evening for portions of central Kansas. 
Scattered showers are now forecast for Thursday afternoon as well, 
especially for locations west of the Kansas turnpike. As such, 
fire weather concerns should be muted over the next couple of 
days. The rainfall combined with warmer weather by the weekend 
may help accelerate further green-up across the area.



Wichita-KICT    79  48  66  42 /  60  80  20  10 
Hutchinson      78  47  65  40 /  50  60  20  10 
Newton          78  46  64  40 /  50  70  20  10 
ElDorado        79  48  64  41 /  60  80  20  10 
Winfield-KWLD   79  49  66  41 /  50  80  20  10 
Russell         73  43  64  39 /  20  20  20   0 
Great Bend      75  44  65  39 /  30  30  20   0 
Salina          77  46  65  40 /  30  40  20  10 
McPherson       77  46  65  40 /  40  50  20  10 
Coffeyville     78  51  65  43 /  40  90  30  10 
Chanute         78  49  63  42 /  40  80  20  10 
Iola            77  49  62  42 /  40  80  20  10 
Parsons-KPPF    77  50  64  43 /  40  80  30  10