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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 150511

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1211 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Main challenge/concerns are convective chances/trends through the 
weekend. Focus for convection late this afternoon will be across the 
central high Plains. Elevated moisture transport on the low level 
jet through early tonight across central Kansas should maintain 
strong to severe convection perhaps as far east as the turnpike 
corridor before waning across the Flint Hills/southeast Kansas. 
Damaging winds look to be the main threat with risk for marginally 
severe hail as well. After the convection exits the area stage right 
by early Saturday morning, much of the daylight hours may be 
precip-free across the forecast south of the effective surface 
front, which looks to be situated across central Kansas. Warming 
aloft should be sufficient to cap the airmass for surface based 
convection until very late in the afternoon. However, diurnal 
heating will result in strong instability by early evening just 
south of the front, where local convergence could initiate 
isolated to widely scattered storms. The strong instability will 
make up for the rather modest deep layer shear, supporting a
conditional risk for severe hail and wind. A more organized 
complex of convection and severe risk may develop over southern 
Kansas into northern Oklahoma later Saturday evening into the 
overnight. The effective surface front looks to move only slightly
south to along or just south of the Oklahoma border into Sunday 
as embedded mesoscale vortices in vicinity of the main eastward 
drifting mid/upper level shortwave traverses over the 
central/southern Plains through Sunday night. So, will maintain 
the relatively better convective chances/QPF across southern 
Kansas. The better chances look to push south and east of the area
on Monday, though will maintain slight to modest chances PoPs. 


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

A rather unsettled pattern looks to continue through at least the 
middle of next week as periodic upper shortwaves traverse over a 
moist/unstable airmass. Temperatures should remain at or just 
below seasonal climo. 



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

The main aviation concern over the next 24 hours will be chances 
for showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight, which have the 
potential to produce strong winds, heavy rain, and large hail. 

At midnight, a line of strong to severe storms stretches from
central Kansas, across southwest Kansas, and into Oklahoma. These
storms will continue to move across south central Kansas over the
next few hours. The main threat with these storms will be strong
winds, with reports of 70-80mph already reported at points further
west. Thinking 60-70mph winds will be possible across south
central Kansas, along with brief heavy rain. As the line move
further east in southeast Kansas, storms will slowly dissipate. 

After storms move through, gusty winds can be expected for a short
time, though VFR flight conditions are expected throughout much of
the day tomorrow before more chances for thunderstorms in
southeast Kansas.


Wichita-KICT    68  89  67  84 /  70  20  60  40 
Hutchinson      66  88  65  82 /  70  20  50  40 
Newton          67  88  65  82 /  70  20  60  40 
ElDorado        68  87  66  83 /  80  20  60  50 
Winfield-KWLD   68  88  66  84 /  60  10  50  50 
Russell         62  88  62  83 /  70  20  30  20 
Great Bend      63  88  62  82 /  70  20  40  20 
Salina          66  90  65  84 /  50  20  40  30 
McPherson       65  88  64  82 /  60  20  50  30 
Coffeyville     70  88  68  85 /  50  30  60  50 
Chanute         69  87  67  83 /  80  30  60  60 
Iola            68  87  67  83 /  80  30  70  50 
Parsons-KPPF    69  87  68  84 /  80  30  70  60