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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 190524
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1124 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 355 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

Highlight: Winter Weather Advisory for Tuesday

Challenge: Precipitation chances, timing and amounts on Tuesday 

A trough positioned over the West Coast continues to approach the 
Rockies and dive southeast. This will be the focal point for this
period as the system moves east and northeast. There is an 
increase in the moisture transport on Tuesday afternoon and 
evening especially in the eastern part of the state and along the 
KS/MO border. This is reflected in the higher chances for 
precipitation beginning in the mid to late afternoon through very 
early Wednesday morning. Chances for precipitation have been 
adjusted with a later start time given the latest models 
suggesting a later arrival. On the flip side of the coin, it is 
possible that there could be lingering activity beyond 12Z or 6AM 
Wednesday as there has been a trend in this direction; however, 
the exit was kept to be by that point in time for now. 

The predominant type of precipitation was left as snow for a bulk 
of the area besides southeast Kansas which will have warmer air 
aloft and the surface as indicated by forecast soundings. There 
are differences between the models in determining the temperature 
of the warm nose in the profile with the GFS climbing to near 3 
degrees Celsius while the NAM stays at the 0 degree mark. A 
cooler surface on the NAM hints at more of a freezing rain 
solution for southeast Kansas while the GFS may be just rain 
without the freezing component for most of this event.

The rest of the area will stay in the snow scenario for a bulk of 
the precipitation activity given the depth of moisture and 
respective temperatures throughout the column. As mentioned in the
previous discussion, there is the potential for freezing drizzle 
on the back edge of this activity as there is a loss of ice in the
dendritic growth zone. Again the models differ on the exact 
timing of this resolution with the NAM much quicker to deplete 
moisture in this level; it is in fact occurring as early as 7 or 
8PM. This could definitely adjust the overall snowfall 
accumulations if this solution pans out. However, there is enough 
of an indication with the rest of models to maintain amounts of 
two to five inches with locally higher amounts possible in central
and portions of south central Kansas. Total accumulations may 
need to be adjusted with the next issuance. 

Timing would be during the evening commute which certainly 
complicates matters. Longer travel times are anticipated, and 
there could be slick spots on the roadways especially elevated 
surface. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for 18Z or 12PM
on Tuesday to 12Z or 6AM on Wednesday. While the key period will 
be later than the start time and earlier than the end time, this 
window provides a buffer on either side in the event that there 
are impacts earlier or later. 

After a wintery Tuesday, most of Wednesday will not be too bad with 
decreasing cloud cover especially in the latter part of the day. 
High temperatures are anticipated to be above freezing and close 
to 40 along the Kansas and Oklahoma border. Temperatures will 
climb even higher on Thursday and Friday with highs back into the 
40s thanks to a ridge over the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 355 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

A pronounced trough is progged to move in Friday into Saturday.
The GFS has now trended closer to the ECMWF with a closed off and
deepening solution as this system tracks northeast across the 
Central Plains. Saturday appears to be the day with the best 
chances for precipitation. Most of the area will be warm enough 
that the type of precipitation will be rain. Central Kansas is 
the exception where there could be a mixture of rain and snow or 
just snow. Chances for this activity have been increased with this
forecast issuance given higher confidence based on the consistent
presence in the models. However, there very well may need to be 
changes in the timing of this activity as well as the possible 
location of the mixed type scenario. 

Temperatures on Saturday will range from 40 in central Kansas to 
the upper 50s in the southeast corner of the state. A slight cool 
down (~5 to 10 degrees) is anticipated on Sunday across south 
central and southeast Kansas as cooler air makes its way into the 
area. Another system is anticipated to move through late Monday 
which will bring another chance for precipitation late, but this 
the very last segment of this period. Thus there are undoubtedly 
going to be changes in the forecast. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

Main impact will be lowering cigs on Tuesday in advance of a 
Winter storm system moving across the central/southern Rockies 
and into the central Plains. MVFR stratus cigs are expected to 
develop across western portions of central Kansas Tuesday 
morning. Light snow is expected to develop with MVFR cigs/vsbys 
area-wide Tuesday afternoon with conditions deteriorating to 
IFR/LIFR in mainly snow Tuesday evening, though a wintry mix of 
rain/snow/freezing rain expected in southeast Kansas.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

Minimal fire concerns are expected throughout this forecast given
the multiple chances of precipitation. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    20  30  24  37 /  10  90 100  10 
Hutchinson      17  29  21  36 /  10  90 100  10 
Newton          17  29  22  35 /  10  90 100  10 
ElDorado        20  31  24  36 /  10  90 100  10 
Winfield-KWLD   21  32  25  38 /  10  90  90  10 
Russell         12  26  15  33 /  20  90 100  10 
Great Bend      13  27  16  35 /  20  90 100  10 
Salina          15  27  20  34 /  10  90 100  10 
McPherson       16  28  20  34 /  10  90 100  10 
Coffeyville     24  37  28  40 /  10  90  90  10 
Chanute         22  37  27  38 /  10  90 100  10 
Iola            21  35  27  38 /  10  80 100  10 
Parsons-KPPF    23  37  28  39 /  10  90 100  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday 
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...VJP