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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 181741
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Forecast Highlight:
Intense heat to impact South-Central & Southeast KS Mon & Tue.

Today & Tonight:
Numerous showers & thunderstorms continue to spread E/SE across
most of central, south-central and southeast KS where a strong
S/SW low-level jet continues to inject ultra-rich moisture across
central & eastern KS. A cold front, that'll push into KS this
morning, should force drive thunderstorms out of most areas this
morning with SE KS the only exception as the front would
decelerate & likely stall. The positioning of the front translates
into thunderstorms redeveloping across SE KS this evening & as
such have increased chances to 30-40%. The other concern involves
heat indices perhaps reaching 105F along the OK-bordering counties
of SC KS this afternoon. This morning's convection may
sufficiently inhibit warm up to prevent indices from reaching 
105F.

Mon-Tue Night:
There are 2 concerns: 1) Heat indices that'll reach 105-110 across
all of SC & SE KS both Mon & Tue afternoons and 2) a cold front
that'll sag S/SE toward the NE/KS border Tue night. Weak low 
pressure that'll remain centered over most of CO would cause weak 
southerly flow across most of KS. With high-octane moisture 
entrenched across KS coupling with the weak flow heat & humidity 
would definitely increase. Heat indices from 105-100 are likely 
across most, if not all, of South-Central & Southeast KS both Mon 
& Tue afternoons. Strongly considered issuing a Heat Advisory for 
both days but after further collaboration checked the swing. With 
the front approaching the NE/KS border thunderstorms are sure to 
increase Tue night, especially across the Northern third of KS. 
Shear is feeble, both speed & directionally, therefore the severe 
potential would be quite low, especially if the front remains 
north of the NE/KS border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

The behavior & positioning of the front approaching the NE/KS
border will draw considerable attention, especially from 
thunderstorm potential. Confidence on the front's positioning is 
not great & as such scattered thunderstorms appear possible for 
most of these periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

A weak surface front will sag southward into southern Kansas this
afternoon and evening with a light easterly component wind
prevailing overnight. Isolated convection is possible thru early 
this evening as the front drifts into southeast Kansas. MVFR/IFR 
stratus cigs are expected to develop north of the front with 
patchy MVFR fog vsbys across central Kansas early Monday morning. 
The front will gradually retreat northward on Monday with 
conditions improving to high end MVFR or VFR by midday. 

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    96  71  96  75 /  30  10   0  10 
Hutchinson      95  69  97  75 /  20   0   0  10 
Newton          92  70  94  75 /  40  10   0  10 
ElDorado        92  71  94  75 /  50  10  10  10 
Winfield-KWLD   96  72  97  75 /  30  10   0  10 
Russell         89  65  94  72 /  10   0   0  10 
Great Bend      91  66  96  73 /  10   0   0  10 
Salina          92  69  95  75 /  20   0   0  10 
McPherson       93  70  96  74 /  30  10   0  10 
Coffeyville     93  73  96  75 /  70  40  10   0 
Chanute         89  72  94  74 /  70  30  10   0 
Iola            88  72  93  74 /  70  30  10   0 
Parsons-KPPF    91  72  95  75 /  70  40  10   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED