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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 170104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
804 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Issued at 804 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Expect the rest of the evening/night will be relatively quiet
across most of the area. The exception may be across the southern
Flint Hills and southeast Kansas toward and after midnight, as
some convection in northeast Oklahoma may rotate north into these



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

A trough is positioned along the U.S. and Canada border with another 
wave over the Southern Plains. There is a boundary draped across 
southern Kansas which combined with instability and diurnal heating 
is initiating showers and thunderstorms near/along it. See the
mesoscale portion above for more information on the expectations
for the rest of the evening. 

1) Chances of thunderstorms
2) Below seasonal normal temperatures

The wave over the Southern Plains will maintain its position/have a 
slow eastward movement into Monday. This wave and an associated 
boundary will be the source for shower and thunderstorm development 
through the evening into the overnight in southern Kansas. Its slow 
track will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms across 
southeast Kansas through much of Monday. 

A trough will come off the Front Range late Monday/Tuesday which 
will track its way east and bring another round of showers and 
thunderstorms for much of the state on Tuesday. Models vary in the 
level of instability with roughly 20-30kts of 0-6km bulk shear. 
Moisture transport does increase in the mid afternoon. Strong to 
severe storms remain possible with the best chances for severe in
the evening. Some of the daytime/afternoon activity could alter 
the level of intensity. Chances for precipitation have been 
adjusted given the latest model guidance and could very well 
change with the subsequent forecast issuance. 

One consistent element in the forecast would be the temperatures in 
the short term. Highs should stay in the low 80s maintaining the 
below climatological normal trend. Many may welcome it especially 
after hearing that highs were near 100 degrees this time last 
year. Recent rains could add to the muggy factor though. Low 
temperatures should stay in the low to mid 60s. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

1) Warmer
2) Chances of thunderstorms Saturday eve-Sunday

A trough will come from western Canada/the Rockies on Wednesday and 
stay over that area into Thursday. There will be a dry period 
from Wednesday evening thru Thursday as the system is off to the 
west which will certainly be a relief to many. The first wave 
should move through the Plains on Friday when chances of 
precipitation return once more. Another wave will follow on 
Saturday, and there will be better chances associated with its 
eastward track in the evening and overnight hours. This is 
partially given the differences in the models. A more aggressive 
GFS pushes the first wave through on Friday evening with a 
subsequent one on Saturday. The ECMWF lags the trough off to the 
west. Saturday and Sunday have the best chances for precipitation 
next weekend with a few adjustments in the percentages. On the 
other hand, the signal is not as impressive for Friday evening 
thus the chances have been lowered. Model differences are 
indicative of this disparity between forecast issuances, but one 
can only expect the same to persist until better agreement exists.

Something that has stayed its course would be the expectations for 
high temperatures for the end of the week into the weekend where the 
upper 80s to lower 90s will return. Friday does appear to be the 
warmest day of the forecast. There will be a slight southerly 
breeze though.  


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Widely scattered convection is expected to diminish/end by dark
across southern Kansas. Light winds and moist soil/near surface 
air may promote some patchy MVFR fog vsbys over southern Kansas
as well toward dawn. MVFR stratus appears most likely over
southeast Kansas early Monday morning, otherwise VFR conditions
expected much of the forecast valid period. 



Wichita-KICT    66  83  65  83 /  10  10  20  60 
Hutchinson      62  83  63  81 /  10   0  30  60 
Newton          64  82  63  81 /  10   0  20  60 
ElDorado        64  82  63  82 /  10  10  20  60 
Winfield-KWLD   63  83  64  84 /  20  10  10  50 
Russell         60  83  62  80 /  10  10  60  60 
Great Bend      59  83  63  80 /  10   0  50  50 
Salina          61  85  63  81 /  10   0  20  60 
McPherson       61  83  63  80 /  10   0  30  60 
Coffeyville     65  83  65  85 /  30  40  10  40 
Chanute         66  82  63  84 /  20  30  10  50 
Iola            65  82  63  83 /  20  30  10  50 
Parsons-KPPF    65  83  64  85 /  30  30  20  40