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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 190904
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
304 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

Shallow cold air remains in place across most of KS early today. The 
main forecast challenge today will mainly be the warm advection snow 
event across most of the forecast, but some concern about temps 
climbing just above freezing in SE KS, cutting into snow totals.  

Model solutions continue to suggest that mid level lift associated 
with the right rear quad of the upper jet will increase the "warm 
advection" for the daytime hours today. This warm advection, over 
the top of the shallow cold air, will lead to increasing mid level 
level moisture across the southern plains by late this morning, with 
this moisture moving north into KS by midday. The combination of the 
lift and moisture will lead to a widespread precipitation chance for 
late this afternoon through tonight.  Latest bufkit forecast 
soundings suggest an ALL snow event for areas west of the KS 
Turnpike, with possibly some freezing drizzle on the tail end of the 
event as cloud ice is lost.  So mainly worried about snow 
accumulation amounts for this area.  The bigger challenge will be 
for areas east of the KS Turnpike and especially over SE KS, where 
the warm advection may lead to surface temps climbing just above 
freezing, before precip begins this afternoon.  Latest RAP and some 
of the other hi-rez models suggest surface temps could climb into 
the middle-upper 30s!! Which would lead to the precip initially 
starting out as either rain or a rain/snow mix. Went with some of 
the colder short range model solutions, but even then, temps may 
climb above freezing for a few hours in SE KS. Either solution will 
certainly cut down on snow totals. So have segmented the Winter 
Weather advisory to show the lessor snow amounts expected in SE KS 
and the Flint Hills with this in mind.  Think SE KS will eventually 
see wet bulb temps dropping back towards freezing this evening, and 
turn over to all snow.   

For the rest of the forecast area (west of the Turnpike) the main 
message for the event will be snow and snow amounts. Current model 
projections suggest snow will begin a little later than previously 
thought, sometime during the afternoon hours, with potentially a few 
hours of moderate snow during the very late afternoon into the 
evening hours. This will certainly impact the evening rush hour. 
Latest model trends suggest lift will strong enough to lead to the 
higher snow totals that we previously advertised. Think most areas 
will see a solid widespread 3 to 5 inches, as lack of any 
frontogenetic banding will limit the higher amounts.  Could see a 
few areas north and northeast of Wichita see amounts approaching 4-6 
inches. As mentioned earlier, towards the end of the event by very 
late this evening, low level moisture remains high, but cloud ice 
will be lost, so could see some patchy freezing drizzle before the 
precip winds down late tonight. 

Most of the precip will come to end by early Wed morning, with weak 
downslope flow in its wake.  This will lead to max temps a little 
warmer on Wed, leading to alot of the newly falling snow melting or 
a slushy Wed afternoon. 

Ketcham 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

A gradual warming trend will be on tap for the end of the week, with 
SW flow aloft leading to gradual warm advection for most locations. 
This warm advection will lead to increasing chances for 
precipitation for Fri through the weekend.  The shallow cold air 
will be a little tricky on precip type for Friday, especially for 
central KS, but as the warm advection increases, think most of the 
precip will changeover to rain.  Will leave a wintry mix mention 
across central KS for now.    

A fairly dynamic system looks to move out of the southern Rockies 
for Sat and Sat night.  this system is expected to move out of the 
southern Rockies and then NE across KS, with lots of warm moist air 
ahead of it.  Latest medium models even suggest surface dewpoints 
may climb into the 50s, which will lead to increasing chances of 
showers and even a few thunderstorms.  Gonna have to keep an eye on 
this system, as latest model runs pull some cold air into central KS 
for Sat night, which may lead to fairly dynamic winter storm for the 
northern half of KS for Sat night.  Stay tuned.  

Ketcham 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

Main impact will be lowering cigs on Tuesday in advance of a 
Winter storm system moving across the central/southern Rockies 
and into the central Plains. MVFR stratus cigs are expected to 
develop across western portions of central Kansas Tuesday 
morning. Light snow is expected to develop with MVFR cigs/vsbys 
area-wide Tuesday afternoon with conditions deteriorating to 
IFR/LIFR in mainly snow Tuesday evening, though a wintry mix of 
rain/snow/freezing rain expected in southeast Kansas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

Continued below normal temperatures and increasing chances 
for snow today into the weekend will keep the fire weather concerns 
very low for most of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    30  22  37  19 /  90 100  10   0 
Hutchinson      29  19  36  18 /  90 100  10   0 
Newton          30  21  34  19 /  90 100  10   0 
ElDorado        32  24  36  20 /  90 100  10   0 
Winfield-KWLD   32  24  37  20 /  90  90  10   0 
Russell         24  14  34  16 /  90 100  10   0 
Great Bend      25  14  35  17 /  90 100  10   0 
Salina          27  19  34  16 /  90 100  10   0 
McPherson       27  18  34  17 /  90 100  10   0 
Coffeyville     37  29  40  24 /  90  90  10   0 
Chanute         35  28  38  21 /  90 100  10   0 
Iola            34  27  37  20 /  80 100  10   0 
Parsons-KPPF    37  29  39  23 /  90 100  10   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Wednesday 
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham 
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham