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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 182037
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
337 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) 
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Forecast Highlights: 

1. Chance for isolated thunderstorms in southeast Kansas this 
evening

2. Dangerous heat indices both Monday and Tuesday afternoons

Early afternoon surface analysis reveals a weak synoptic cold front 
extending from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan southward through 
the Upper and Middle Mississippi River Valley and into northeast 
Kansas. Latest surface observations suggest the front then snakes 
from northeast Kansas, across central Kansas, and into the 
Oklahoma Panhandle. 19z METARs at Ellsworth and Russell depict 
calm winds while weak southerly surface flow prevails south of the
boundary across much of the forecast area. This front is progged 
to sag southward late afternoon and early evening, though some 
question about its evolution remains given the lack of meaningful 
southerly progression so far today. Temperatures and moisture in 
southeast Kansas have largely recovered in the wake of lingering 
convection that exited the region this morning, and mesoanalysis 
reveals sufficient MLCAPE that should continue to increase over 
the next 4-6 hours or so in the vicinity of southeast 
Kansas/southwest Missouri/northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas. 
As convective inhibition continues a downward trend, there is 
potential for some thunderstorm development within the area of 
continued advection of warm, moist air (with dewpoints in the mid
to upper 70s). Effective bulk shear of 35-40 kts would support a 
strong to marginally severe storm or two should convective 
initiation occur this far north. With that being said, most models
are favoring an area to the southeast of the ICT forecast area 
for convective initiation, and the latest SPC day 1 convective 
outlook has placed the marginal severe risk well to the south of 
the area. Given the uncertainty and conditional nature of storm 
chances, however, have maintained chance POPs in the forecast 
throughout much of the evening for far southeast Kansas.

BUFKIT model soundings also hint at the possibility of some low 
clouds/patchy fog north of the front in central Kansas overnight 
tonight and early tomorrow morning. Lingering clouds throughout the 
morning should begin to clear up by mid-day tomorrow or so.

Attention then turns to very high heat indices across a large swath 
of central and eastern Kansas tomorrow afternoon and again on 
Tuesday as the front retreats northward across the area as an 
effective warm front. Continued low-level southerly flow and 1000-
850mb thicknesses near 1450m or so will allow temperatures to heat 
up into the mid to upper 90s while dewpoints increase well into the 
70s. The hot and humid conditions will support heat index values in 
the 105-110 degree range nearly area-wide Monday afternoon. A
similar pattern will persist on Tuesday with even higher forecast
temperatures. As a result, have issued a heat advisory which runs
throughout this period. See the latest advisory for details.

By Tuesday evening, another cold front will sag into northern 
Kansas and mark the return of chances of thunderstorms in the 
forecast. As the previous discussion mentioned, very weak shear 
should keep the potential for severe storms quite low.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) 
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Chances of showers and storms will linger throughout much of the 
day on Wednesday as the front slowly pushes southward across 
Kansas. Relief from the heat will also be in store for Wednesday,
since lingering showers/storms/clouds will cap temperatures 
around 90 degrees or so. 

Some areas should receive at least a temporary reprieve from
thunderstorms on Thursday-Friday, but have maintained low POPs 
throughout the period given the uncertainty in the front 
placement. Afternoon highs slightly lower than climatology are 
likely to persist throughout the rest of the period. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

A weak surface front will sag southward into southern Kansas this
afternoon and evening with a light easterly component wind
prevailing overnight. Isolated convection is possible thru early 
this evening as the front drifts into southeast Kansas. MVFR/IFR 
stratus cigs are expected to develop north of the front with 
patchy MVFR fog vsbys across central Kansas early Monday morning. 
The front will gradually retreat northward on Monday with 
conditions improving to high end MVFR or VFR by midday. 

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  96  76  99 /   0   0   0  10 
Hutchinson      69  97  75 100 /  10   0   0  10 
Newton          70  94  75  98 /   0   0   0  10 
ElDorado        72  94  75  98 /  10   0   0  10 
Winfield-KWLD   73  97  75  98 /  20   0   0  10 
Russell         63  94  73 101 /   0   0   0  10 
Great Bend      65  96  73 101 /   0   0  10  10 
Salina          67  95  75 101 /  10  10   0  10 
McPherson       67  96  74  99 /  10   0   0  10 
Coffeyville     74  96  75  96 /  40   0  10   0 
Chanute         72  94  74  95 /  30   0   0  10 
Iola            72  93  74  95 /  30   0   0  10 
Parsons-KPPF    74  95  75  95 /  40   0  10  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ033-
048>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...KED