Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 201154
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
654 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

A mid/upper ridge across the Rockies is progged to build eastward 
across the central CONUS today bringing tranquil weather conditions 
and above normal temperatures to the region. As low pressure 
deepens across the High Plains, breezy southerly winds will 
develop downstream across the Central Plains region.

A lead shortwave trough is progged to race eastward emerging across 
the Central Plains late tonight/early on Sunday. We may see an 
increase in mid clouds with this initial wave and with breezy 
southerly winds this will likely result in mild overnight lows and 
values were trended up across much of the area. Another more 
pronounced shortwave trough will approach late on Sunday. Isolated 
evening storms may accompany this second shortwave trough along a
dryline during the evening hours, but the airmass may remain 
capped until the cold front arrives during the overnight hours. 
Inverted-v profiles and steep mid-lvl lapse rates across central 
KS would result in the potential for strong and/or damaging winds 
and large hail with any storm that can manage to develop during 
the early evening hours.

Monday...The frontal boundary is progged to make slow progress south 
and east across the area on Monday with a breezy post-frontal regime 
anticipated. If the front slows down a bit, we could see some 
afternoon storms across mainly southeast KS. Another shortwave 
trough may impact the area late Monday night bringing increasing 
chances for deep moist convection into the period on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across the area on 
Tuesday as a shortwave trough lifts north and east across the 
area. A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated as we move into 
the middle of the week with seasonable temperatures on both Wed 
and Thu across the area. We expect to see highs in the 70s and 
lows in the 40s & 50s. Upper level ridging is expected to return 
towards the end of the work week with breezy southerly flow/rising
heights and increasing thickness supporting rising temperatures 
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours.

Southerly winds will be on the increase today, as low pressure
continues to strengthen across the High Plains, with gusts 
reaching 25 kt at times by afternoon. A strengthening low-level 
jet will support LLWS up to 50 kt at all TAF sites tonight into
early Sunday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the upcoming week, 
especially in areas across south central and southeast KS that 
received beneficial rainfall recently and green-up is well
underway.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    78  57  82  57 /   0   0  10  10 
Hutchinson      78  57  82  55 /   0   0  10  20 
Newton          77  57  80  56 /   0   0   0  20 
ElDorado        77  56  81  59 /   0   0   0  20 
Winfield-KWLD   78  57  81  59 /   0   0   0  10 
Russell         84  59  87  51 /   0   0  10  20 
Great Bend      84  59  87  52 /   0   0  10  30 
Salina          81  58  84  56 /   0   0  10  20 
McPherson       78  57  82  55 /   0   0  10  20 
Coffeyville     76  54  81  61 /   0   0   0  10 
Chanute         75  53  80  61 /   0   0   0  10 
Iola            74  53  80  61 /   0   0   0  10 
Parsons-KPPF    75  54  80  62 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...MWM