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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 181852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
152 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...Mesoscale Update (valid through 6 pm cdt)...

Clusters of thunderstorms persist in north-central Kansas early this 
afternoon, in association with a convectively-induced vort max. A 
boundary separating cooler, outflow air from very moist, warm and 
unstable air, extends from west-central Kansas eastward to near 
Hutchinson, then curving northeastward to just west of Manhattan. 
This boundary will serve as a focus for strong-severe, surface-based 
storm development which is imminent per latest environment and radar 
trends. Storms should propagate generally east-northeastward around 
20 knots. Main focus area for possible severe weather through 6 pm, 
will be from south-central Kansas northeastward to western portions 
of the Flint Hills. MLCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg, 0-6 km shear of 25-40 
kt will support mainly multi-cell modes. Large hail of 1 to 2 inch 
diameter, wind gusts to 60-75 mph will be the main threats. Low-
level CAPE of 75-150 j/kg, and westerly 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-
35 knots could support a brief tornado threat for: a) any storms 
with longer residence time along the aforementioned boundary, and b) 
for any bowing QLCS segments. 


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

A upper level short wave currently over western Kansas will move 
slowly eastward towards central Kansas by this afternoon. Showers 
and embedded thunderstorms associated with this wave will gradually 
slide eastward into central Kansas early this morning. A decrease in 
coverage is possible this morning before more robust re-development 
tries to ensue for this afternoon into tonight.  Some short range
models are showing afternoon convection congealing along the 
surface front in central Kansas. This scenario would generate a 
more pronounced cold pool and the beginning evolution of liner 
development. Corfidi vectors/mean flow aloft suggest activity 
would have a southeast direction. Favorable 0-3km bulk shear 
magnitude/vectors in a west to east orientation could increase 
potential for damaging winds, especially for any linear activity 
with a southeast movement into the more unstable areas. At this 
juncture it looks like southern Kansas has the better potential to
witness more daytime heating and becoming more unstable.

Locally heavy rainfall is still possible tonight, however with a 
forward propagation of storms expected this could limit 
widespread flooding. 

Showers/storms look to linger across eastern Kansas for early 
Wednesday as slow moving upper level wave still has some influence 
over the area. Mild upper level ridging should suppress thunderstorm 
development on Thursday with warmer temperatures returning to 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Much warmer temperatures will spread across the area on Friday with 
daytime highs possibly reaching into the upper 90s for locations in 
central Kansas. Dry weather looks to prevail during the day on 
Friday, with models showing very warm EML(elevated mixed layer) 
prohibiting thunderstorm development across central/southern Kansas. 
Thunderstorm chances could clip parts of eastern Kansas Friday night 
but the bulk of the activity should remain north. Long range models 
show a stalled out frontal boundary for Saturday with a deeper more 
pronounced short wave ejecting eastward from the Rockies into 
Nebraska. A very unstable airmass along the frontal boundary looks 
to be ignited with more widespread convection due to cooler air 
aloft breaking down the strong EML on Saturday. Wind speeds will also 
increase aloft over the region, therefore severe weather chances 
look more likely on Saturday. There is some uncertainty on position 
of surface front and precipitation chances for Sunday/Monday, 
especially if convection becomes widespread Saturday night. A more 
stabilized airmass could be the result for Sunday and Monday with dry 
weather possible. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to impact most if not 
all terminals this afternoon, evening and tonight. Convection 
currently is ongoing across central and north-central KS in 
vicinity of RSL-GBD-SLN, with activity likely developing further 
south as the afternoon progresses toward HUT-ICT, and toward 
00-02z for CNU and adjacent southeast KS terminals. Pockets of 
severe weather in the form of large hail, damaging winds, and 
torrential rain is likely. Activity should end across central and
north-central KS by 00-03z, with activity ending along the
Turnpike corridor and southeast KS by 06-12z. In wake of the
storms later tonight into Wednesday morning, MVFR to possible IFR
ceilings are possible due to continued moist low-levels amidst 
increasing cold air advection.



Wichita-KICT    82  64  79  61 /  40  80  10  10 
Hutchinson      81  62  78  60 /  60  90  10   0 
Newton          81  63  78  60 /  60  90  10  10 
ElDorado        82  64  78  60 /  40  90  20  10 
Winfield-KWLD   83  64  80  61 /  30  80  10  10 
Russell         76  59  77  59 /  70  70  10  10 
Great Bend      77  60  78  60 /  60  70  10   0 
Salina          77  62  77  60 /  80  90  10  10 
McPherson       79  62  77  60 /  70  90  10  10 
Coffeyville     85  67  82  63 /  10  90  40  10 
Chanute         83  65  80  61 /  10  90  40  10 
Iola            83  65  80  60 /  10  90  40  10 
Parsons-KPPF    84  66  81  62 /  10  90  40  10