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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 172036
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
336 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

There is a trough moving through the Plains with its southern extent 
moving into the Panhandles. A frontal boundary is slowly making its 
way southeast and is currently stretched from near Amarillo to Pratt 
to Hutchinson to Salina. Dewpoints have increased to the upper 50s 
to lower 60s across south central and southeast Kansas this 
afternoon with even higher values into Oklahoma thanks to decent 
moisture transport. There is a dryline associated with this system 
that is currently through the Texas Panhandle and into west central 
Texas. Convective initiation has begun at this intersection point in 
the Texas Panhandle within the past couple of hours. It is 
developing northeast along that boundary. The expectation is that 
this will continue through the next few hours. 

Discrete cells would likely develop across south central/southeast 
Kansas as the instability increases. Mid level clouds have slightly 
hampered destabilization with model soundings showing a weak cap in 
place. Currently there appears to be 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE with still 
decent CIN and 30-40kts of effective bulk shear. Low and mid level 
lapse rates of 7-8.5 support large hail potential at least initially 
especially with increasing instability. The boundary is expected to 
fill in leading to a more linear storm mode which would decrease the 
large hail potential and become more of wind threat. Development is 
anticipated in the next few hours in Kansas. The Storm Prediction 
Center has issued a mesoscale discussion with a watch likely in 
the next couple of hours. Please see their discussion if you would
like additional information. 

-Pearce

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

The main focus in the short term is the potential for severe 
thunderstorms beginning late this afternoon/early evening in south 
central and southeast Kansas. As the afternoon progresses, 
forcing for ascent and instability are expected to continue 
increasing as the cap erodes along and ahead of the cold front. 
Thus, expect convective initiation to increase in coverage across 
northern Texas, western Oklahoma, and into south central Kansas
over the next few hours. Mesoanalysis and latest CAMs suggest 
that the timing from the previous forecast still looks good, with 
discrete cells beginning to form sometime near 23-00z and 
increasing in coverage for a few hours after that. The primary 
threat, at least in in initial development this evening, will be 
the potential for large hail and damaging winds. See the 
Mesoscale Discussion above for more details.

After midnight and into the early morning hours tomorrow, the threat 
for severe storms will be winding down in south central Kansas as 
the axis of greatest low level moisture flux convergence and CAPE 
shifts into southeast Kansas. By this time, the primary storm mode 
should transition to become more linear. Bulk shear will still be 
plentiful with models suggesting values in excess of 60kts in spots. 
However, with bulk shear vectors oriented parallel to the frontal 
boundary and a more linear storm mode, thinking damaging wind will 
be the primary threat overnight in southeast Kansas though storms 
early in this period do have the potential to produce large hail as 
well. Localized flooding from heavy rain will remain a possibility 
behind the front overnight in south central Kansas with the flooding 
threat slowly transitioning to southeast Kansas during the early 
morning hours. By mid-morning, the front and associated low pressure 
will have moved well east of the area and rain chances will come to 
an end in southeast Kansas.

Elsewhere tomorrow, as the upper trough digs across the Plains and 
Mississippi Valley, diurnal showers will be possible in central and 
south central Kansas. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out 
with some weak instability present during the afternoon, but not 
expecting any severe storms with this activity. Otherwise, expect 
cooler temperatures than were observed today, though they will be 
close to normal for the time of year. 

Overnight tomorrow night, the deep upper trough axis will make its 
way east of mid-America and much drier air will allow for clear 
skies Friday as high pressure moves across the Southern Plains. By 
Saturday, a southerly wind regime will return to central, south 
central, and southeast Kansas and allow temperatures to warm up into 
the upper 70s to near 80 across the area, setting up for a nice 
start to the weekend.

-Vaughan

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Heading into the first half of next week, a more unsettled patter 
will return to the area with several upper shortwaves bringing 
multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the period. 
The first of these looks to be Sunday afternoon-night and then again 
on Monday evening-Tuesday, bringing chances of showers and 
thunderstorms. Though some stronger storms cannot be ruled out, the 
chances for severe storms continues to look rather low at this time. 
Temperatures throughout this period will be right around normal for 
the time of year. Of note, by day 7 (Wednesday) there is quite a bit 
of disagreement amongst models regarding the timing of mid-week 
precip chances. This also could have a big impact on forecast 
temperatures (for example, the Canadian suggests highs in the 50s
on Wednesday and holding on to precip much longer, while the 
quicker ECMWF pushes temperatures into the 70s). For now, have 
taken a "middle-of-the-road" approach and used a blended 
solution, but note some variation should be expected over the next
several days as confidence in this period is rather low at this 
point.

-Vaughan

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Storm initiation and convection will be the main concerns for 
this forecast period for KHUT, KICT and KCNU. A cold front is on a
southward track through central Kansas. Convective initiation is 
expected along and near this front in the latter part of the 
afternoon and evening. Timing of the initiation or vicinity 
wording is very similar to the previous issuance. Tempo groups of 
TSRA have been added to account for the increasing 
confidence/potential for thunderstorms to impact those sites. The 
exact timing may need to be adjusted with amendments or the next 
issuance depending on observational data. Heavy rain and lower 
ceilings will drop the category to MVFR even possibly IFR for a 
window of time. Vicinity showers may occur for KGBD and KSLN thus 
this was inserted, but the better chances are further south as 
discussed. Chanute will be the only site to have potential 
thunderstorms until near 12Z. Otherwise the activity should move 
east by even 6Z. A quicker exit may occur.

The cold front will result in a transition of the winds to the 
north which has already occurred in central Kansas. At the end of 
this forecast period, the winds are anticipated to increase for 
everywhere but KICT and KCNU. Sustained speeds of 15 to 20kts are 
anticipated with gusts up to 30kts. Please stay tuned for updates
on this forecast. 

-Pearce

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

With widespread rainfall expected this afternoon and overnight
across south central and southeast Kansas, fire weather concerns
over the next few days will be minimal. Heading into Saturday,
temperatures will warm back up but recent rainfall should prevent
any major fire weather concerns. Additional rainfall chances next
week will keep fire danger in check through at least mid-week.

-Vaughan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  66  42  68 /  80  20  10   0 
Hutchinson      48  65  40  68 /  60  20  10   0 
Newton          47  64  40  66 /  70  20  10   0 
ElDorado        49  65  41  66 /  80  20  10   0 
Winfield-KWLD   50  66  42  67 /  80  20  10   0 
Russell         43  65  39  69 /  10  30   0   0 
Great Bend      44  65  38  69 /  20  30   0   0 
Salina          47  65  40  68 /  20  30  10   0 
McPherson       47  65  39  67 /  50  20  10   0 
Coffeyville     51  65  43  67 /  90  30  10   0 
Chanute         50  64  43  66 /  80  20  10   0 
Iola            50  63  42  65 /  80  20  10   0 
Parsons-KPPF    51  64  43  66 /  80  20  10   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...VJP
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...TAV