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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 170925

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Patchy light freezing drizzle and very light snow will gradually 
come to an end from west to east early this morning as subsidence 
continues to overspread the region in wake of a departing 
shortwave. Otherwise, clouds will gradually clear across a good 
portion of the forecast area today. The exception will be across 
portions of north- central, central and east- central Kansas on 
the southern fringe of moist cyclonic flow, where scattered 
afternoon-early evening flurries are possible given steep low- 
level lapse rates amidst cold 850mb temperatures. No accumulation 
is expected. Furthermore, breezy northwest winds are expected to 
spread southeast today.

A low amplitude shortwave is expected to shear out as it 
approaches the region from the southwest Monday. Even though 
models have trended less impressive with lift, there may be just 
enough for a period of light snow or flurries Monday, mainly west 
of a line extending from Hutchinson to Salina. Accumulations will 
likely remain a dusting at best.

A more substantial upper wave will approach Mid-America from the 
west Tuesday. Deep and strong lift ahead of this system should 
support widespread precipitation spreading northeast across the 
region Tuesday, gradually ending from the south Tuesday night. 
While subtle differences between the models do exist, overall 
model agreement and run-to-run continuity remain good. Thermal 
profiles suggest mostly snow, although low-levels near freezing 
may support a rain/snow mix across far southeast Kansas. Degree of
lift and residence time of precipitation support widespread 1-2 
inches, although pockets of weak instability progged by the NAM 
and GFS may support localized 3-4 inch amounts. Fain/snow mix 
across far southeast KS would cut into accumulations there. By 
late Tuesday afternoon through evening, mid-levels dry out from 
south to north, although low-level lift and saturation continue, 
possibly supporting a period of freezing drizzle. If model trends 
continue, envision a winter weather advisory will eventually be 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Model and ensemble consensus supports the stagnant western CONUS 
longwave trough eventually lifting out across Mid- America late 
week into next weekend, probably in a few separate chunks, 
supporting continued precipitation chances across the region. 
However, quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding the timing 
and amplitude of these systems. Additionally, model progged 
thermal profiles are all over the place, placing high uncertainty 
on precipitation-type. Consequently, stayed with modest to high 
chance PoPs for now. Stay tuned for later forecasts.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Aviation concerns remain low ceilings and winter precip for the 
next few hours.

Upper shortwave is currently lifting over eastern Nebraska with 
intense upper jet extending from the TX Panhandle into northern 
MO. Surface winds have started to flip around to the northwest for
most of the forecast area as the upper wave has pushed far enough
east. This will allow for drier air to work-in, which will result
in ceilings improving from west to east. Areas west of I-135 
should get to VFR levels in a couple hours, with KICT-KSLN around 
09z and KCNU an hour or two before sunrise. For Sun, VFR 
conditions will be in place at all sites with some lower ceilings 
trying to flirt with KSLN by Sun afternoon. 


Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Continued cold weather and periodic precipitation chances will 
keep the grassland fire danger low for the next several days.


Wichita-KICT    34  16  28  19 /   0   0  10  10 
Hutchinson      32  14  25  17 /   0  10  20  20 
Newton          30  13  24  17 /   0  10  10  10 
ElDorado        32  15  27  19 /   0   0   0  10 
Winfield-KWLD   37  17  31  21 /   0   0  10  10 
Russell         28   9  21  12 /  10  40  50  20 
Great Bend      30  11  22  14 /   0  40  50  20 
Salina          29  11  23  15 /  10  10  20  20 
McPherson       29  12  23  16 /   0  10  20  20 
Coffeyville     37  18  34  23 /  10   0   0   0 
Chanute         33  16  30  21 /  10   0   0  10 
Iola            31  15  29  20 /  10   0   0  10 
Parsons-KPPF    36  17  32  23 /  10   0   0  10