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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 230232
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
932 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Temperatures will be relatively cool over the next couple of days, 
but will begin to moderate from mid-week on. A slow-moving storm 
system will bring a threat of rain and isolated thunderstorms to 
mainly far southern and southeastern Kansas through Tuesday. After a 
drier mid-week, unsettled conditions look to return over the weekend 
and into next week with an increased risk of showers and 
thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Shortwave currently over the TX panhandle will slowly move E-NE and 
shear out as it moves across northern OK overnight.  Showers and a 
few rumbles of thunder continue over wrn OK at this time ahead of 
the shortwave. Widely scattered showers on the NE to N side of the 
impulse will slowly lift northeast into southern KS late tonight. 
Made some adjustments to the pops for SE KS as shortwave is coming 
out a little slower than previously thought.  But think mid level 
isentropic lift will increase ahead of the shortwave late tonight, 
with showers increasing for areas south of Highway 54/400 after 
09z/Mon. Could see quite a sharp cutoff to the northern edge of the 
precip, as drier air in the northerly flow continues to get advected 
south. This drier air will keep the cloud bases fairly high, and 
limit QPF amounts for southern KS from a tenth to less than a half 
inch along the KS/OK border.    

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

This afternoon, a cold front stretches from Iowa to western Texas, 
where it intersects a developing surface low. Aloft, an upper low 
resides just west of the Four Corners region.

The northern end of the cold front, over the Midwest, will continue 
to push east. However, the southern end of the front will slow down 
and eventually stall as it loses upper level support. Meanwhile, a 
lead s/w will eject out of the Four Corners upper low later today, 
eventually lifting slowly E/NE across the Central/Southern Plains 
through late Tuesday. Increasingly diffluent flow and large-scale 
ascent is already evidenced on water vapor imagery over AZ/NM. 

This area of diffluent flow aloft and increasing ascent will 
eventually overspread the Southern Plains later tonight/Tuesday. 
Combined with modest low/mid level frontogenesis and decent 
isentropic upglide north of the front should lead allow a broad 
swath of rain and embedded thunderstorms to develop from the Texas 
Panhandle E/NE across portions of Kansas and Oklahoma. Where models 
differ is how far north this band of precip reaches. Run-to-run 
continuity hasn't been great, but guidance appears to be settling in 
on rain potentially reaching as far north as a line from Wichita to 
Chanute. Analog and deterministic guidance focus the heaviest 
rainfall to our south over OK/TX. Even ensemble guidance shows a 
sharper cutoff in precip across Kansas. For this forecast issuance, 
pops and QPF were adjusted north just a bit from the previous 
forecast based on the latest guidance/trends. But, keep in mind that 
continued refinements will likely be needed regarding where the 
precip vs no precip line sets up. Regardless, the highest rainfall 
amounts with this system look to be right along the OK/KS border.

I kept a mention of thunder in the forecast through late tonight, 
but a continued N/NE flow should lead to a progressively more stable 
airmass and am only expected isolated thunderstorms at worst. That 
N/NE low-level flow combined with clouds and some rain should keep 
southern Kansas well below normal on Tuesday and temperatures were 
adjusted down. If any storms do form, a lack of better instability 
and shear should limit any severe potential.

Martin

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

High pressure settles in mid-week with a stable and dry airmass. 
Late in the week and over the weekend, zonal flow aloft looks to 
develop across the Plains. Within this flow, several embedded 
shortwaves will likely traverse the area, each potentially posing an 
increased risk of thunderstorms. While model guidance generally 
agree on the upper level pattern, there are subtle, but important,
differences regarding the path of each wave, quality of moisture
return, and degree of instability. Modest winds within the zonal 
flow should lead to deep layer shear supportive of strong/severe 
convection. In addition, a baroclinic zone may setup from the High
Plains east across KS/NE and could be a focus for repeat 
thunderstorm activity. The zonal flow eventually turns more 
southwesterly with potentially a more open Gulf and increasing 
moisture/instability. The main takeaway here is an increased risk 
of thunderstorms, potentially including an increased risk of 
strong/severe storms. Certainly too early to pinpoint any one 
area, so please stay tuned.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

A weak frontal boundary, currently located just to the SE of KS 
Turnpike, will slowly drift south into northern OK during the late 
evening hours.  Could see some lingering MVFR cigs over SE KS near 
KCNU, as the front pushes south. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions 
for most TAF sites this evening and overnight. 

A shortwave currently over the TX panhandle will slowly lift E-NE 
late this evening and overnight.  This shortwave is expected to 
overrun the frontal boundary as it move into northern OK, with post 
frontal showers spreading north into southern KS late tonight or 
early on Tue.  So will go with a VCSH mention for the KICT and KCNU 
tafs overnight into Tue morning. Could see going with prevailing 
SHRA with later forecasts, but like to see where the showers set up 
first.  As the showers increase early on Tue, could see some MVFR 
cigs return to both KICT and KCNU.   

Ketcham


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Relatively cool temperatures and lighter winds should limit the
fire weather potential over the next couple of days. Moderating
temperatures will occur later this week, but winds look to remain
generally light until possibly this weekend. By then, though,
there may be an increased risk of thunderstorms.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    51  60  48  72 /  30  50  20  10 
Hutchinson      49  63  46  72 /  20  20  10   0 
Newton          49  61  46  71 /  20  20  10  10 
ElDorado        50  58  47  71 /  30  60  10  10 
Winfield-KWLD   52  57  48  71 /  60  70  10  10 
Russell         44  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Great Bend      45  66  43  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          46  66  45  74 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       48  64  45  73 /  10  10  10   0 
Coffeyville     54  59  52  71 /  50  70  10  20 
Chanute         52  59  50  71 /  30  50  20  10 
Iola            51  58  50  71 /  20  40  30  10 
Parsons-KPPF    53  60  51  71 /  40  60  10  20 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SYNOPSIS...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...RM