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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 201746
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1246 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Currently have an upper trough extending from the Northern
Intermountain region into the Central Great Basin. At the surface,
lee troughing remains over eastern CO with return flow across the
Plains. Regional 88D mosaic shows a weak upper circulation over
western OK that is slowly lifting northeast. 

Weak impulse over western OK is expected to impact southeast KS
this morning into the early afternoon hours and will provide some
shower chances. In addition, remnant energy/moisture from Imelda
will lift north today, passing over AR, potentially impacting far
southeast KS today. Even though a stray shower or storm will be
possible about anywhere this afternoon, confidence is high that 
southeast KS will have the better chances. 

A piece of energy is expected to lift out of the southern High
Plains tonight and will increase shower and storm chances across
western OK into the far south/southwest portion of the forecast
area. This will also be in an area of increasing moisture
transport in the 850-700mb layer. So for tonight, feel the highest
shower and storm chances will be for areas along and southeast of 
the KS Turnpike.

The Sat-Sat night time frame looks to be the most active through
this forecast package. Should be some morning showers or storms
for areas along and southeast of the KS Turnpike. Attention then 
turns to the cold front expected to sag into west-central KS by 
Sat afternoon. Storms are expected to develop along this feature 
by late Sat afternoon. Most likely locations for initiation maybe 
just west or north of the forecast area. However, any activity 
that develops west of the area will track east Sat evening. In 
addition, there is a good model agreement that 850-700mb moisture 
transport and temp advection will ramp up Sat evening as main 
upper vort max approaches central KS. This should result in storms
becoming more numerous over central/northeast KS. While all modes
of severe weather will be possible with the initial storms, feel 
heavy rain and flooding may become the bigger threat Sat night, 
especially given PW values greater than 307% of normal. In 
addition, we will have a slow moving boundary to focus activity 
along.

Front should be more progressive on Sun with mainly southeast KS
having the best shot at continued heavy rain Sun morning. By Sun
afternoon, the majority of the activity is expected to be east of
the forecast area. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

As shortwave trough departs to the east, we should see a break in
showers/storms to start the work week. However, both the ECMWF and
GFS agree on another shortwave digging down across the desert
southwest Mon night, with a lead piece of energy ejecting out
across the southern/central Plains, which may bring another chance
at showers and storms by mid week. 

Expecting temps to be closer seasonal normals behind the front
starting Sun and continuing through next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Challenging aviation forecast with areas of MVFR/IFR conditions
likely during the forecast. Initially, influx of richer moisture
will keep drizzle light rain going roughly east of I-35 through
most of the afternoon. Dropped mention of thunderstorms in 
southeast KS this afternoon, with little in the way of instability
forecast. Slightly better mixing/drier air will improve ceilings 
at KHUT, KICT and KSLN early in the forecast. Anticipate
decreasing ceilings later tonight at KCNU, KICT and KHUT. Models 
also suggest some potential for MVFR ceilings moving in from the west
near end of forecast for MVFR ceilings at KGBD. -Howerton 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  69  84  65 /  20  30  30  70 
Hutchinson      81  69  85  62 /  20  20  40  80 
Newton          80  69  83  64 /  20  20  40  80 
ElDorado        79  69  82  67 /  20  30  40  70 
Winfield-KWLD   80  69  82  67 /  20  40  50  70 
Russell         87  68  83  57 /  10  20  40  70 
Great Bend      87  68  83  58 /  10  20  50  80 
Salina          82  69  83  62 /  10  20  40  80 
McPherson       80  69  84  61 /  20  20  40  80 
Coffeyville     78  70  80  70 /  40  30  50  60 
Chanute         77  69  80  69 /  40  40  50  70 
Iola            76  69  81  69 /  40  40  50  70 
Parsons-KPPF    77  70  80  70 /  40  30  50  60 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH