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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 210813

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
313 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

A cold front is now moving into the State and will slowly move to 
the east today.  Unfortunately the short range models are having 
difficulty resolving the timing and the precipitation field expected 
to develop this afternoon.  The HRRR/NMM/ARW appear to have 
initialized the best this morning and push the bulk of the moisture 
to the north of the CWA with only the I-70 corridor getting the bulk 
the appreciable rain during the day.  This is in line with the GFS 
and ECMWF as well.  The NAM is much drier does not bring in much if 
any rain.  What all these models do indicate is the front will stall 
briefly in the Central Kansas.  This will allow some consistent 
moisture transport to push into the eastern half of the State.  This 
stall will also allow temperatures in the eastern half of the reach 
the upper 90s once again.  Dew points will remain in the low to mid 
70s ahead of the front which could bring heat indices in the mid 
100s for one more day.  Cloud cover will be a major factor in this 
possibility.  If the cloud cover is denser than expected, 
temperatures could be a little cooler today.  

By the late afternoon and into the evening today, the mid level 
trough will come into the phase with the surface low.  This will 
provide the needed kick to push the system through the remainder of 
the state during the evening and overnight period.  This progression 
will provide the needed focus to bring a good chance for decent 
rain. Both the GFS and ECMWF show very good moisture transport 
behind the front with decent instability.  Bulk shear and lapse 
rates are paltry at best which precludes wide spread severe weather. 
Strong thunderstorms are much more likely.  PW values are a concern 
as they are running in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range.  This is well 
above normal for this time of year.  As a result, any thunderstorm 
activity that develops will be very efficient rain makers.  Very 
heavy rain will be the most likely threat for this activity. As the 
front moves east of the turnpike, forcing and moisture transport 
appears to pick up some more.  This will place the highest flooding 
threat east of the turnpike during the night.  

Once the front passes a strong Canadian high pressure system will 
build into the region.  This will bring and end to the precipitation 
early morning Monday and bring CAA to the entire CWA.  The remainder 
of the short term will be quite with sunny skies and much cooler 


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

The extended range will be rather quiet with high pressure 
dominating the region.  Temperatures for the first part of the week 
will be below normal.  By late Wednesday, the high pressure will 
begin to push off to the east bringing the winds back around to the 
south allowing WAA to return to the region.  Temperatures will 
recover back toward normal by the end of the week.  Rain chances for 
the extended are limited at best with the next chance of rain 
looking to occur during the weekend.



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday evening) 
Issued at 947 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

VFR conditions expected to prevail for most locations until late
Sunday. A cold front will sag southward into central Kansas late
tonight/Sunday morning, then continue south into south central and
southeast Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. The main impact of
the front will be the wind shift and chance for isolated to widely
scattered convection behind the front. Development of stratocu 
bases/cigs is also expected behind the front with prevailing MVFR
across central Kansas late in the forecast period. 



Wichita-KICT    97  66  83  62 /  30  50  20   0 
Hutchinson      93  64  83  60 /  30  60  10   0 
Newton          94  66  82  60 /  30  60  10   0 
ElDorado        95  67  82  61 /  30  70  20   0 
Winfield-KWLD   98  70  83  62 /  20  60  20   0 
Russell         85  60  83  57 /  40  40   0   0 
Great Bend      87  61  83  57 /  30  40  10   0 
Salina          90  64  81  59 /  30  60  10   0 
McPherson       91  64  82  59 /  30  60  10   0 
Coffeyville     96  73  83  64 /  10  90  40   0 
Chanute         95  71  83  62 /  10  80  30   0 
Iola            95  70  82  62 /  20  80  30   0 
Parsons-KPPF    96  72  83  63 /  10  80  40   0 


Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ053-