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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 182348
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
648 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tonight) 
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Forecast highlights: Severe weather threat this afternoon- 
evening, more storm chances Thu-Sun, warm/hot and humid Thu-Sat.

Expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to impact mainly 
southern half of the forecast area this afternoon-evening. The 
culprits are a stalled frontal zone/outflow boundary across 
central/southern KS, in concert with an MCV rotating across 
central KS, and a subtle shortwave approaching from SW KS. 
Instability and deep layer shear combination will support large 
hail and damaging winds, along with locally very heavy rain and 
pockets of flash flooding. Degree of low-level CAPE will also 
support an isolated tornado threat, especially in vicinity of the 
stalled frontal zone/outflow boundary across southern/central KS. 
Merging cold pools should gradually support a transition to 
linear/squall line mode as activity progresses into 
southern/eastern KS during the evening and overnight hours, with a
continued damaging wind, heavy rain and possibly isolated tornado
threat given decent 0-3km shear.

Another possible scenario for thunderstorms will be activity 
rolling east/southeast off the High Plains along/north of the 
stalled frontal zone/outflow into southern KS toward midnight, 
although activity may remain just south of the forecast area in 
OK, especially if a big cold pool pushes the stalled frontal zone 
south. Nevertheless, main threat will be damaging winds and
possible an isolated tornado threat, especially if activity
remains anchored along boundary. 

Kleinsasser

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) 
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Two to four more rounds of thunderstorms are possible Thursday 
evening through Sunday night. While there remains some model 
differences, consensus supports highest chances Thu and Fri 
afternoon-evening generally northern KS. Chances look to expand 
across the rest of the forecast area Saturday through Sunday 
evening, as an unseasonably strong upper trough and associated 
cold front approach from the west, interacting with a 
moist/unstable airmass in place. Strong to severe storms along 
with locally heavy rainfall and pockets of flash flooding are once
again possible.

Increasingly warm/hot and humid weather will prevail Thursday 
through the weekend, but especially Fri when heat indices may 
approach 100 degrees. 

Kleinsasser

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to impact
southern and eastern Kansas this evening, with chances gradually
exiting to the southeast thereafter. Pockets of 30-50kt winds are
possible, along with quarter size hail and intense rainfall rates.
Later tonight, thinking MVFR ceilings will spread south, due to
increasing cold advection amidst continued moist low-levels. 

Kleinsasser

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  79  63  88 /  50  10   0   0 
Hutchinson      63  78  62  88 /  30  10   0   0 
Newton          63  77  62  87 /  40  20  10   0 
ElDorado        64  77  61  86 /  60  30  10   0 
Winfield-KWLD   66  80  63  88 /  70  20  10   0 
Russell         61  77  62  89 /  30  10  10  20 
Great Bend      61  78  63  89 /  30  10   0  10 
Salina          63  77  61  89 /  30  20  10  20 
McPherson       63  77  62  88 /  30  20  10  10 
Coffeyville     66  81  63  88 /  70  40  10   0 
Chanute         65  79  61  87 /  70  40  10   0 
Iola            65  78  61  86 /  70  40  10   0 
Parsons-KPPF    65  80  62  87 /  70  40  10   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...ADK