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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 241745
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1245 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Today-tonight:
Main focus will be the convective threats. Plentiful moisture in
axis across the forecast area, combined with approaching elongated
upper circulation along the Colorado border will probably keep
showers and storms festering for much of the day. Barring
extensive convection this morning, will likely have plenty of
instability already in place for storms tonight. With increasing
diffluence ahead of the circulation and unstable airmass, expect
robust storms early in western KS, which will spread east tonight.
Fairly good potential for heavy rain/flooding given antecedent
conditions and will expand flash flood watch in time through 
tonight and space. Forecast was generally trended toward RAP and 
NAM which had best handle on ongoing precipitation. temperatures 
tricky again today, but think that far southwest sections may see 
a bit of sunshine with another late day temperature recovery.

Sunday-Monday:
Storms will probably be ongoing at daybreak Sunday - lingering
into late morning or potentially afternoon in southeast KS. May
need to expand/extend flood watch, but given uncertainty will hold
off for now. Moist low levels and southeast flow will generate
extensive clouds Sunday night and not completely ruling out some
elevated showers in far southeast KS that could linger into Monday
morning but better chances develop Monday night as cold front
moves through. This front will set the stage for another round of
robust storms. Temperatures should warm on Monday with more 
sunshine once morning clouds give way. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Ongoing differences with model QPF resulted in extensive chances 
for precipitation throughout most of this period. The chances for 
rain on Tuesday appear grossly overdone given frontal passage 
Monday-Monday night and drier air moving into the area per both 
0000 UTC GFS/ECMWF. Some 850MB moisture working north across the 
High Plains would result in a non-zero chance of storms rolling 
off the High Plains Tuesday-Wednesday, but not the magnitude of
the chances or coverage given in the initialization grids. 
Differences in timing of the subsequent cold front are evident by 
the end of the period. Preference would have been to go dry until 
late Wednesday night, with small chances 0900 UTC Thursday through
Friday. Confidence in this part of the forecast is low. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

MVFR and IFR conditions will continue for the first part of the
afternoon then MVFR conditions will predominate by mid afternoon.
The main challenge for this TAF period is the timing and intensity
of the expected severe weather for tonight. Conditions are good
for a widespread severe weather event during the late evening and
overnight period. Timing is a little sketchy at this time but it 
is likely that gust of 50Kts will occur at some point tonight. 
This activity will develop during the late afternoon west of the 
region the move into the region by the late evening. RSL and GBD 
will be the first to experience the severe weather with HUT and 
ICT likely to see the activity close to or after midnight local 
time tonight. Persistent thunderstorms are expected through much 
of the overnight but this is expected to diminish toward dawn. 

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  68  81  70 /  30  80  40  10 
Hutchinson      80  66  81  69 /  60  80  30   0 
Newton          78  66  79  69 /  50  80  40  10 
ElDorado        77  67  79  68 /  30  80  50  10 
Winfield-KWLD   80  68  80  69 /  30  80  50  10 
Russell         78  65  83  69 /  60  80  10  10 
Great Bend      78  65  82  69 /  50  80  10   0 
Salina          78  67  82  69 /  50  70  20  10 
McPherson       79  66  81  69 /  50  80  30   0 
Coffeyville     80  69  79  70 /  40  40  80  10 
Chanute         76  68  77  69 /  30  50  70  20 
Iola            75  67  77  68 /  40  50  60  20 
Parsons-KPPF    78  69  77  69 /  30  50  70  20 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CDT this evening through Sunday 
morning for KSZ033-048>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.

Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ032-047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ELM