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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 160530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1130 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 332 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

The left, entrance region of a strong, 170kt jet is moving over 
the area at this time, leading to increased subsidence. This 
combined with top-down drying aloft will continue to put an end to
the steadier precipitation from earlier today. We'll let the 
Winter Weather Advisory expire at 00z/6pm, as planned, as the 
wintry precipitation is expected to be out of the area by that 
time. Through the remainder of the evening/overnight hours, low- 
level moisture trapped beneath the inversion will likely allow an 
area of lower clouds to persist. Because of this, I went a bit 
more pessimistic with cloud cover. This will keep temperatures 
from falling as much as they otherwise could. While this may tend 
to keep the threat of fog at bay as well, light winds and a fresh 
coating of snow/sleet may allow some patchy fog to develop along 
the I-70 corridor.


Saturday-Saturday night:
Rather impressive 150kt 300MB jet is forecast across OK, with
diffluent flow across the forecast area ahead of shortwave. This
results in impressive lift across most of the area during the day
and into the evening. Precipitation appears probable, but some
uncertainty where moisture and lift will first coincide. Given
forecast soundings suggest a wintry mix with cloud ice a bit
lacking at times. Good mid level lapse rates are forecast in
southeast KS, so response there could be impressive in the
afternoon/early evening. Suspect an advisory will be needed for
the combo of snow and mainly ice accumulation, but consensus was
to hold off while current headlines exist and take another look at
00z data. At this time, the most likely advisory area would be 
along/north of highway 400.

Precipitation and clouds will be on the wane in the predawn hours
Sunday as drier air moves in from the west and surface ridge
builds into the area. Temperatures should be a bit warmer Sunday
with some insolation, but still below normal. Some small chances
for precipitation Sunday night and Monday as next upper ripple
grazes area, passing to the northwest. This is contingent on
moistening in 850MB-700MB layer as area will still be dominated by
surface ridge. Some suspicion that QPF may be more a function of
upslope flow which is typically over forecast in central KS in 
that pattern.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

Good agreement in medium range models that the mean longwave
pattern will feature a western US trough/eastern US ridge. However
there will be a series of waves move through this mean trough
position and across the plains. Predictability (and timing) of
these waves and amount of moisture return is highly suspect, with
extensive model to model/run to run variability in the critical
fine details is likely. The initialization grids kept moderate to
higher chances of precipitation going for much of the period. The
main takeaway is that there will be periodic rounds of 
precipitation, not a continuous period of precipitation. Timing of
these with any accuracy is futile. Kept the spatial/temporal 
coverage about the same as the initialization grids, but did 
temper down the highest chances to less than 80 percent given 
predictability issues. -Howerton


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

MVFR cigs will prevail through much of the forecast valid period.
Another round of light wintry precipitation is expected again on 
Saturday afternoon/evening with potential for MVFR vsbys and IFR



Issued at 332 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

Extensive precipitation should limit fire weather threat over the
next 7 days. -Howerton 


Wichita-KICT    15  29  21  37 /   0  40  10   0 
Hutchinson      13  27  20  34 /   0  40  10   0 
Newton          12  26  19  33 /   0  50  20   0 
ElDorado        13  28  21  35 /  10  50  20   0 
Winfield-KWLD   16  31  23  40 /   0  30  10   0 
Russell         10  24  15  30 /   0  50  10   0 
Great Bend      12  26  17  32 /   0  40  10   0 
Salina           9  26  14  30 /   0  60  20   0 
McPherson       10  26  17  32 /   0  50  20   0 
Coffeyville     18  35  25  41 /  20  30  20   0 
Chanute         14  32  23  36 /  20  60  30   0 
Iola            13  31  23  35 /  20  70  30   0 
Parsons-KPPF    16  34  25  39 /  20  40  20   0