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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 170446
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1146 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which
will be severe, will develop across much of the area Wednesday 
afternoon and evening. At this time, the primary threats look to
be large hail, potentially as large as golf ball size, and
damaging winds. Cooler weather and breezy conditions follow
Wednesday's storms, but a quick moderation is expected leading up
to the Easter weekend. The weekend starts dry, but may turn
unsettled by Sunday with another risk of thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a semi-stationary frontal 
boundary from northeast Kansas back into southeast Colorado (where a 
weak surface low was developing). A surface trough/pseudo dryline
appears to stretch from near Dodge City south into western TX. 

Water vapor imagery reveals a well-defined upper low digging 
southeast along the CA coastline at this time. The low will move 
through the Four Corners region tonight, then across the Southern 
Plains on Wednesday. Ahead of that low, a weaker lead wave will 
eject northeast out of New Mexico and track across the Central 
Plains tonight. Large-scale forcing for ascent combined with 
increasing moisture may be just enough to initiate a few showers or 
thunderstorms late tonight near/north of I-70. For now, though, it 
looks like the best forcing will be just north of our area.

In the wake of that wave, the LLJ veers for a short time which may 
actually promote a bit more low/mid level drying early in the day 
Wednesday. This potential drying plus a strong cap suggests 
limited, if any, convective potential Wednesday morning. Based on
this, pops were removed for the morning hours.

At the surface, the low over SE Colorado will slowly shift east 
through Wednesday morning, then begin to deepen by the afternoon as 
mid-level height falls overspread the area. The low/triple point 
should then translate east along or just south of the KS/OK border. 
Of note, too, a subtle boundary/effective warm front may lift north 
out of eastern OK and into SE KS on the leading edge of a second 
surge of moisture advection. 

Given the strong cap in place, thinking convection will hold off 
through the morning. During the afternoon hours, diabatic heating 
plus gradually cooling temps aloft should help to erode the cap. 
This looks to happen in concert with increasing large-scale forcing 
for ascent and increasing low-level and moisture convergence. 
Therefore, we do expect initiation despite the strong cap early in 
the day. It is likely that initiation will first occur along and 
perhaps even in the wake of, the cold front where convergence 
will be maximized. Effective shear on the order of 30-40kt should 
be more than adequate for organized convection in an environment 
characterized by modest instability and steep/very steep lapse 
rates. 

Storm mode will be important regarding the severe threat. Deep layer 
shear oriented parallel to the frontal boundary will likely tend to 
lead to upscale growth with time, which may ultimately disrupt 
individual updrafts and limit what would otherwise be a larger hail 
threat. Even so, initial updrafts or any semi-discrete cell that can 
develop, will pose a large hail threat, potentially half-dollar to 
golf ball size. Where upscale growth does occur, heavy rain/ 
isolated flooding may become a concern along with gusty/damaging 
winds. 

SE KS will reside in the warm sector the longest and it is unclear 
whether or not the cap will erode enough for warm sector 
development. Should this occur, though, the potential of 
discrete/semi-discrete cells is plausible and those would pose a 
greater hail threat, potentially 2"+ given the instability and very 
steep lapse rates present. Eventually convection over south-central 
KS should move/develop into SE KS by evening. The LLJ will be 
strengthening some during this time, but will be more veered. This 
may provide a very brief window of opportunity for a brief tornado, 
but the veering and weaker nature of the jet, as well as the 
potential for a more linear mode, should limit the tornado threat.

Martin

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

After a brief cooldown Thursday, a quick moderation will ensue to
close out the work week. Southerly flow will lead to warming
temperatures and increasing moisture over the Easter weekend.
Eventually, there may be enough lift and moisture for an increased
risk of thunderstorms on Easter Sunday. Shear doesn't look as
great at this time, but it may be unstable enough for a few
stronger storms. The risk of storms may continue into early next
week.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

Low level moisture continues to work north with some transient
MVFR cigs impacting much of central and south central KS tonight.
These cigs will gradually build eastward into southeast KS 
during the predawn hours and into the morning hours on Wed. 
Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely after 
22Z or so across south central KS and after 23-01Z over southeast 
KS. MVFR cigs will be common with pockets of IFR likely under the
heavier showers and storms. A cold front will move slowly south
and east shifting winds to the northwest. The front will impact
KRSL, KSLN and KGBD during the afternoon hours while impacting
south central KS and southeast KS during the evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

Elevated fire weather concerns will continue for a short time this
afternoon across south-central and southeast Kansas. Breezy
conditions continue into Wednesday, especially along and east of
the Kansas Turnpike. However, there will be an increased risk of 
a wetting rain Wednesday afternoon/evening. This will be followed
by cooler conditions on Thursday.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  79  48  64 /  10  60 100  10 
Hutchinson      61  78  46  64 /  10  60  90  10 
Newton          62  77  45  62 /  10  50  90  10 
ElDorado        63  78  47  62 /  10  50 100  20 
Winfield-KWLD   63  79  48  64 /  10  70 100  20 
Russell         58  73  43  64 /  20  40  40  10 
Great Bend      57  75  44  64 /  10  70  80  10 
Salina          62  77  46  64 /  10  60  70  10 
McPherson       61  77  45  63 /  10  60  80  10 
Coffeyville     63  78  51  63 /  10  40  80  40 
Chanute         63  77  49  61 /  10  50 100  40 
Iola            63  77  49  61 /  10  50 100  40 
Parsons-KPPF    63  77  50  62 /  10  40  90  40 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...RM