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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

FXUS63 KICT 220449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1149 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

The main forecast highlight will be chances of thunderstorms this 
afternoon through tonight, and the last few hours of excessive heat 
in southeast Kansas late this afternoon. Otherwise, cooler 
temperatures accompanying a dry pattern will persist throughout 
the next week. 


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Early this afternoon, water vapor and visible satellite imagery show 
a MCV across southern Nebraska/northeast Kansas. A synoptic front 
that has become mostly stationary during the day today stretches 
from the Great Lakes region through central Missouri, and into 
eastern Kansas before turning more southward through south central 
Kansas and the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. Visible satellite 
imagery depicts a band of clouds stretching from northeast 
Kansas, across Saline, McPherson, Rice, and Reno counties and 
extending southwest into Oklahoma, which appears to be a remnant 
outflow boundary. As of 19z, some isolated convection has 
initiated along this band in northwest Barber County. Over the 
next several hours, convective development is likely to occur as 
the cap erodes and CAPE continues to increase. Effective bulk wind
difference values are less than stellar for severe storm 
development, but sufficient buoyancy, initiating boundaries as a 
focus, and maximized residence time within surface-based effective
inflow layer air should be sufficient to produce a few strong to 
severe storms. These will likely be focused along the main MCV in 
far northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska/northwest Missouri, as 
well as along the main synoptic front and outflow boundary. With 
storms expected to congeal into clusters and line out, the primary
threat with these storms will be straight-line wind, with gusts 
of around 60mph possible. However, severe hail will be possible in
initial, isolated development. The overall tornado threat appears
low within the forecast area, but mesoscale boundary interactions
that could create temporary windows of locally favorable 
environmental conditions for tornado development will need to be 
monitored. Additionally, forecast precipitable water values 
(2.0-2.25 inches) well above climatology for the time of year 
suggest that heavy rainfall will be a concern as well, as 
thunderstorms are expected to be efficient rain makers. Localized 
flooding will be possible, especially in the usual places and in 
low-lying areas.

As thunderstorms push southeast overnight, a big cool-down is 
expected behind the cold front as surface flow switches to blow out 
of the north, allowing early morning low temperatures to drop into 
the 60s in central and south central Kansas but remain a little 
warmer in southeast Kansas given the timing of the convection and
frontal passage. Regardless, storms should be mostly clear of
southeast Kansas by mid-morning tomorrow allowing for clearing
skies across the entire area in the afternoon as a ridge builds
into the region. Afternoon highs will be much cooler than previous
days, reaching only into the low 80s area-wide on Monday. This
surface ridge is forecast to remain in place for quite some time,
so the remainder of the short term will remain precipitation-free
with mostly sunny skies and cooler than normal temperatures but
with a slight warming trend each day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

As the previous discussion stated, the remainder of the long term
forecast will remain quiet as a high pressure regime dominates the
central Plains for much of the rest of the week. The slight
warming trend should continue each day through the workweek, with
highs reaching back into the 90s next weekend. Little change was
made to the previous forecast other than the removal of slight
chance pops next weekend in favor of a drier scenario.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

A few scattered showers/thunderstorms will linger for a few more
hours across southeast Kansas. Otherwise, cold advection amidst
moist low-levels will contribute to patchy MVFR ceilings 
developing overnight and persisting into Monday morning for most 
areas, probably most widespread eastern and southeast Kansas. 
Breezy northeast winds will prevail areawide.


Wichita-KICT    69  83  62  83 /  70  10   0   0 
Hutchinson      66  82  59  83 /  30   0   0   0 
Newton          66  82  60  81 /  70  10   0   0 
ElDorado        68  82  61  81 /  70  10   0   0 
Winfield-KWLD   70  83  62  83 /  60  10   0   0 
Russell         64  82  57  84 /  10   0   0   0 
Great Bend      63  82  57  83 /  10   0   0   0 
Salina          66  82  59  83 /  10   0   0   0 
McPherson       66  81  59  81 /  20   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     72  84  63  83 /  90  20   0   0 
Chanute         71  82  62  82 /  60  20   0   0 
Iola            70  82  62  81 /  70  20   0   0 
Parsons-KPPF    70  83  63  82 /  70  20   0   0