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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 260833
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night) 
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

This morning...Expecting another round of scattered to numerous 
thunderstorms across the forecast area through mid- late this 
morning, in response to increasing 850-700mb warm advection and 
moisture transport. Already beginning to see this next round 
develop on regional radar and satellite. Ample elevated 
instability and effective deep layer shear may support a handful 
of storms with large hail. Additionally, more locally heavy 
rainfall is likely, with a continued localized flash flood threat.
Consequently, extended the flash flood watch through noon today.

For late this afternoon through tonight, another round of 
scattered to numerous thunderstorms is expected to move northeast 
off the High Plains, as a rather substantial shortwave approaches 
from the southwest. Thinking the higher-end severe threat in the 
form of very large hail and tornadoes will remain across generally
the western half of Kansas this afternoon and evening. Thinking 
by the time storms reach Wichita's forecast area, the primary 
threat will transition toward damaging winds with isolated large 
hail, as the overall storm mode becomes predominately linear. 
Overall severe threat should drop off generally along/east of the 
Flint Hills. 

The other aspect of late today-tonight's storms will be 
additional heavy rainfall, posing a continued localized flash 
flood threat. Even through the highest rainfall amounts should be 
across central and north-central KS, will issue a new flash flood 
watch all the way east through roughly the Flint Hills through 
tonight, as it won't take much more rain to produce more flooding.

Monday...another rather significant shortwave ejects northeast 
across the Central Rockies and High Plains, giving the Kansas 
region more of a glancing blow of large-scale ascent. 
Additionally, western KS dryline convergence is not overly 
spectacular. All these factors come together for more of a 
conditional thunderstorm threat Monday late afternoon-evening. 
However, if a storm or two can manage to develop, strong 
instability coupled with favorable shear magnitude and orientation
w/respect to the dryline would favor supercells capable of all 
severe hazards, generally well west of I-135.

Kleinsasser

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) 
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Tuesday...the last of a series of significant shortwaves ejects 
northeast across Mid-America. Continued strong instability east of
the dryline along with strengthening deep layer shear should 
support one last severe thunderstorm threat Tuesday afternoon- 
evening, generally along/east of I-135. Given the possibility for 
weaker forcing and slow dryline progression across Wichita's 
forecast area, in concert with long/straight hodographs, splitting
supercells capable of all severe hazards look possible. 

A quieter weather pattern looks to overspread the region Wed-Fri, 
with a possible return to periodic thunderstorm chances by the 
weekend. 

Kleinsasser

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Progressive convective system continues to move across ern KS at 
this time. So will go with VCTS and a tempo group for TSRA for the
KCNU taf for a few more hours. Of bigger concern will be in the 
09- 10z time frame as low level moisture transport look to 
increase again across southern KS, for a chance of renewed 
convection for the early hours on Sunday. So will with a VCTS for 
KICT/KHUT and KGBD. a little uncertain in how far north the 
renewed convection will get, so will only go with a VCSH for KSLN 
and KRSL. 

For most of the daytime hours, will keep MVFR cigs for most 
locations as low level moisture remains very high. Another round 
of convection will occur over the high plains for Sun afternoon/ 
evening. So will introduce another round of VCTS for central KS 
tafs. 

Ketcham

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Another round of storms is expected late this afternoon through 
tonight, especially west of the Flint Hills, with locally heavy 
rainfall and severe weather likely. Widespread 1-3 inches across 
central and north-central Kansas looks like a good bet, with 
locally higher amounts. Rainfall amounts should gradually drop off
with eastward extent toward the Flint Hills and eastern Kansas. 
Any additional rainfall will only aggravate ongoing flooding 
concerns. Many rivers, streams and reservoirs are at or exceeding 
their capacity. Significant river flooding is ongoing or expected 
at numerous locations. Please heed all evacuation orders, and 
please do not drive around barricades or through flooded roads.

Kleinsasser

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  66  85  68 /  60  80  10  10 
Hutchinson      80  65  85  67 /  60  90  10  10 
Newton          80  64  84  68 /  60  80  10  10 
ElDorado        81  66  84  68 /  60  70  10  10 
Winfield-KWLD   83  68  85  69 /  50  60  10  10 
Russell         77  64  86  64 /  50  90  10  20 
Great Bend      77  63  85  64 /  50  90  10  20 
Salina          80  66  86  68 /  50  90  20  10 
McPherson       80  65  85  67 /  60  90  10  10 
Coffeyville     84  70  86  70 /  50  30  10  10 
Chanute         83  69  85  69 /  60  40  20  10 
Iola            82  69  85  69 /  60  50  30  10 
Parsons-KPPF    83  69  85  70 /  60  30  10  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Monday morning for 
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...Ketcham
HYDROLOGY...ADK