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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 211959
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
259 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Area of strong low and mid-level moisture transport may continue
to support some widely scattered elevated, quasi-surface based 
convection along/east of the turnpike late this afternoon. 
However, the more robust surface based storms are expected to 
develop along the front in central Kansas by early evening, where 
bulk shear of 35-40kts, around 2800 j/kg of MLcape will support 
severe storms. While mainly a large hail and down-burst wind 
threat, a non-zero brief tornado risk is possible with any initial
discrete cells. Otherwise, the mode should transition to linear 
clusters along the front later in the evening. Main risk overnight
will be heavy rainfall. Southwesterly low level jet impinging 
over the front may promote a period of back-building/northward 
propagation within the developing mesoscale complex across central
Kansas. Then later in the night thru Sunday morning, another area
of convection within the deeper moisture transport should develop
along/east of the turnpike across the southern Flint Hills and 
southeast Kansas. The front is expected to progress south across 
the area on Sunday with best convective chances and potential for 
localized heavy rainfall lingering across southeast Kansas until 
late afternoon. Progressive clearing/drying is expected in the 
wake of the departing front and upper trof Sunday night with dry 
and seasonably mild weather for Monday. However, moisture is 
expected to return by Tuesday with a return of modest precip/ 
convective chances.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

A significant upper trof will sweep east-southeast across the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday sending a decent cold front
south across Kansas. This should drop temperatures closer to late
September climo Wednesday and/or Thursday depending on the timing.
A large vortex aloft develops across Canada for mid to late in 
the week as a deeper trough develops along the West coast. This 
will kick out a closed low from the Baja region/Southwest CONUS as 
a trof moving northeast across the Plains. Temperatures should 
warm in the southerly flow on Friday and probably remain warm into
Saturday. 

KED 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Scattered showers and storms impacting southeast KS and KCNU
during the morning hours will gradually propagate eastward away 
from the area as we move into the mid afternoon hours. Other 
showers and storms may develop within the moist axis over central 
OK impacting portions of southeast KS later this afternoon.
Meanwhile, VFR and breezy southwest winds prevailed across central
KS through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will
veer ahead of a slow moving cold front across central KS this 
afternoon. This front will provide a focus for some severe storms 
after 3-5 PM across our central KS counties possibly impacting 
KRSL, KGBD and KSLN into the evening hours. More widespread storm 
development tonight will impact much of the area with reduced 
flight categories likely through much of the night. Winds behind
the front will shift to the northwest and this front is expected
across central KS in the 11Z-14Z timeframe on Sunday spreading 
slowly south and eastward across south central Kansas towards
midday and southeast KS during the afternoon hours. The front may
provide a focus for showers and storms across portions of south
central and all of southeast KS during the day on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  79  56  81 /  60  60   0   0 
Hutchinson      67  77  54  81 /  60  50   0   0 
Newton          68  77  54  80 /  70  70   0   0 
ElDorado        69  78  54  79 /  80  80  10   0 
Winfield-KWLD   69  79  56  80 /  80  80  10   0 
Russell         61  77  55  84 /  80  40   0   0 
Great Bend      62  76  54  83 /  80  40   0   0 
Salina          66  76  55  82 /  90  60   0   0 
McPherson       66  75  53  80 /  80  60   0   0 
Coffeyville     70  79  59  82 /  80  90  30   0 
Chanute         70  78  55  80 /  80  90  30   0 
Iola            70  78  54  80 /  80  90  20   0 
Parsons-KPPF    70  78  57  81 /  80  90  30   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday 
afternoon for KSZ052-053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday 
morning for KSZ033-048-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...MWM