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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 181148
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
548 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave tracking across the Central
Great Basin. At the surface, low pressure continues to deepen over
eastern CO. 

Widespread fog continues this morning as return flow increases
which is slowly increasing dewpoints across the area. The best
chance for dense fog will continue to be along and especially west
of I-135. Return flow is also slowly allowing temps to climb which
should limit any freezing fog over central KS with the better
freezing fog and icing conditions just north of the forecast area. 

Should start to see some drizzle or light rain develop later this
morning as isentropic lift ramps up and moisture becomes deeper.
Models have continued to be more progressive with this system 
which will act to limit heavy snowfall potential. Another main
issue with this wave being so progressive is much of the cloud ice
will push east by the time low levels are supportive of snow. The
only exception looks to be northeast and eastern portions of the 
forecast area which does maintain cloud ice for a few hours 
longer than the remainder of the area. This should result in 
slightly higher snow amounts and went ahead and ran with an 
advisory in these areas. Feel that with 30-40 mph winds, it won't 
take much snow to cause issues. While confidence is high that a 
wind advisory will be needed for areas east of I-135 tonight, 
wanted to let the day shift take a look at 12z data to see if they
want to add a couple more counties to the winter weather 
advisory. Feel that it's not out of the question to get some light
freezing rain or freezing drizzle this evening as the low level 
cold surge moves in, especially in the absence of introducing ice 
at the top of the sounding. However, not expecting anything more 
than a light glaze of ice. 

Sat is still looking like a raw day with gusty north winds and
temps around 20 degrees below normal. The faster progression of
this wave will also result in the area getting back into warmer
temps faster on Sunday. Highs on Sun look to be in the 40s for
much of the area. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

By 12z Mon another shortwave will be digging over the Great Basin
with both ECMWF and GFS agreeing well on location and timing. This
wave is expected to remain progressive as it sweeps across the
Plains Mon night through Tue as it also maintains a positive 
tilt. At this time it appears locations north of the forecast area
will have the best chance for accumulating snowfall. However, 
confidence is high that this system will bring another shot of 
cold air for Mon night into Tue. Wouldn't be shocked if highs on 
Tue continue to be dropped with future forecasts. Below normal 
temps look to continue through the end of the work week as the 
Plains get into northwest flow aloft. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

This forecast is definitely complicated aviation wise with LIFR
conditions, fog, precipitation, a wind shift and gusty winds. 
There is a mixed bag of aviation concerns for sure. It is a day on
repeat with fog impacting all TAF sites this morning. Improvement
is expected by 18Z as the precipitation moves in. Vicinity 
wording was utilized to approximate the timing of the arrival into
the various sites. There is a question of precipitation type or 
the period in which there will be a transition of the type from 
rain to snow as the models are trending for a later arrival of 
the cooler air. It is very likely that adjustments will be made
especially in the timing and possible type of precipitation.

Next there is a the wind shift as the cold front moves through the
area. Winds will switch around to the north near 0Z for all but
KCNU. An uptick in the speeds is anticipated this evening and
tonight with sustained speeds around 25kts. Updates may be needed
depending on how quick this front tracks south. Flight category
improvements are anticipated during this forecast at various 
times. KCNU could climb up to MVFR for the afternoon. Most other 
sites should reach the MVFR category this evening. The central 
Kansas sites (GBD, RSL and SLN) should reach VFR status in roughly
24 hours. Given the multiple weather impacts, there will be 
undoubtedly modifications to this forecast with amendments and 
future issuances. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    47  20  27  16 /  60  70  10   0 
Hutchinson      45  18  26  16 /  60  50  10   0 
Newton          45  17  25  15 /  70  60  10   0 
ElDorado        46  19  26  15 /  70  90  10   0 
Winfield-KWLD   51  22  28  16 /  50  80  10   0 
Russell         39  15  26  17 /  40  20   0   0 
Great Bend      41  16  27  18 /  40  20   0   0 
Salina          41  16  24  14 /  70  50  10   0 
McPherson       43  17  24  15 /  70  50  10   0 
Coffeyville     52  26  27  16 /  50 100  20   0 
Chanute         49  23  25  13 /  60 100  10   0 
Iola            47  22  25  13 /  70 100  10   0 
Parsons-KPPF    51  25  25  14 /  50 100  10   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST 
Saturday for KSZ052-053-070>072-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...Juanita