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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Wichita, Kansas (ICT)

                            
000
FXUS63 KICT 222351
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
651 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Short term models are in general agreement in showing decent 
elevated moisture transport overnight across central Kansas to the 
Flint Hills. This will result in weak instability ahead of the 
approaching upper trof where forcing for ascent will increase in the 
diffluent flow aloft. This supports the going forecast with 
numerous showers and isolated storms overspreading much of the 
area tonight. This region of lift and instability will reside over
southeast Kansas through Saturday morning with the mid-level dry 
slot lessening precip chances across central Kansas through 
midday. A rather narrow tongue of higher surface dew points is 
expected to advect northward just head of the dry-line/front 
Saturday afternoon where moderate SB/MLCape and decent LLCape is 
progged by 21z across south central Kansas. This in combo with 
40-50 kts of deep layer shear will provide a conditional window 
for strong/marginally severe storms. While surface based instability
becomes more marginal further north, this axis of potential 
convection could extend into central Kansas as well, in closer 
proximity to the colder air aloft just east of the mid/upper low. 
Showers will linger into Saturday night with a decreasing trend 
from west to east across the area into Sunday. Progressively 
cooler air will advect south across central and eastern Kansas 
Sunday night into Monday with temperatures slightly below seasonal
climo. 

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

There is general support in the medium range for a warming trend 
through the week. Mild and breezy southerly flow is expected 
Wednesday and Thursday. Chances for precip and timing on a 
frontal passage are a little less certain toward the end of the 
week with the ECMWF deeper with a developing upper trof across the
Rockies and north central CONUS by Thursday night and Friday.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

VFR conditions will rule the first part of the TAF period as a 
new weather system will be pushing into the region. The overcast 
skies will increase during the night and lower as well. Moisture 
transport will be enough to allow some showers to develop during 
the overnight hours and through much of the day Saturday. The RSL 
and GBD terminals will be the first to see the shower activity. By
the afternoon Saturday, the clouds will continue to lower and 
will bring in MVFR and IFR conditions to most of the region. 
Shower activity will continue as well across the entire region. 
Thunderstorms will become possible across the region with some of 
them locally strong. An isolated severe thunderstorm can't be 
ruled out. HUT and ICT terminals are the most likely areas to see 
the thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon and into the early 
evening.

Metzger

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Numerous to widespread showers and isolated storms are expected
tonight into Saturday morning. Chances for scattered showers and 
isolated storms will continue into Saturday evening/night. The 
precipitation and higher daytime humidity values will keep the 
fire danger low through the weekend. 

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    47  62  44  66 /  90  70  40   0 
Hutchinson      46  61  42  63 /  90  60  50   0 
Newton          45  59  43  62 /  90  80  60   0 
ElDorado        46  59  44  64 /  90  80  60  10 
Winfield-KWLD   47  62  44  67 /  90  80  50  10 
Russell         45  57  40  60 /  90  70  40   0 
Great Bend      45  59  40  61 /  90  50  30   0 
Salina          46  59  43  61 /  90  70  70   0 
McPherson       46  59  42  61 /  90  70  60   0 
Coffeyville     46  60  51  68 /  90  90  50  20 
Chanute         45  58  49  66 /  90  90  50  20 
Iola            45  58  49  65 /  80  90  60  10 
Parsons-KPPF    45  59  51  67 /  90  90  50  20 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ELM
FIRE WEATHER...KED