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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Huntsville, AL (HUN)

FXUS64 KHUN 152332 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
532 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

For 00Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Latest water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low swinging through
the Ohio Valley, with upper ridging building eastward over the West
Coast. A thick layer of clouds have remained across the TN Valley,
which has kept temps from rising much above our observed lows. The
clearing line of these clouds is just about into northwest Alabama,
as of 2 pm. Meanwhile, winds have generally remained around 10 mph,
creating wind chills in the mid to upper 20s, making for a raw day
across the forecast area. 

Skies will continue to clear this afternoon and evening as the upper
low swings into the Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile, the surface pressure
gradient will relax enough to allow for winds to become light by
midnight. This will allow for just enough radiational cooling for 
temps to drop into the mid to upper 20s by daybreak on Friday. 

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

An upper ridge will remain over the West Coast through much of the
short term period, with flow over the TN Valley becoming more zonal.
Skies will remain mostly clear through Saturday, as dry air filters
into the area. The coolest day will be Friday, when temps warm into
the mid to upper 50s. By Saturday, high pressure building along the
Gulf will shift winds more to the south and help temps warm into the
lower to mid 60s. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 30s
Friday night and only fall into the lower 40s Saturday night. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) 
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Zonal flow will persist through Sunday across the region, leaving
partly cloud skies and highs in the lower 60s. Moisture will increase
Sunday night as a shortwave begins to dig southward through the
Plains and inches closer to the TN Valley. Skies will become mostly
cloudy overnight and lows will generally remain in the lower 40s. A
cold front associated with the upper trough will swing through the TN
Valley late Sunday night/early Monday morning and may bring a quick
shot of light showers. Temperatures will remain well above freezing,
so not anticipating any frozen precip with this front. And even 
then, models differ on just have much moisture will be available. 
Thus, have maintained only a slight chance for light showers from 06Z
through 18Z Monday. The front will quickly exit the area by Monday 
afternoon, with high pressue building into the region and generally 
persisting through the end of the period. Temps Monday through 
Wednesday will be on the cooler side, with highs in the mid 50s and 
overnight in the upper 30s to lower 40s. 


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 532 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

MVFR cloud cover will move out of the terminals within the next few
hours, leaving VFR conditions to prevail through the rest of the
TAF period. Winds will be light and variable overnight, but will be 
ESE around 5-6 kts tomorrow. 





For more information please visit our website 
at weather.gov/huntsville.