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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Huntsville, AL (HUN)

FXUS64 KHUN 160539

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1139 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

For 06Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 848 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Clouds are finally exiting the region as drier air continues to 
filter in behind a departing upper-level low pressure system over the
Ohio Valley. As of 0230z, the clearing line is roughly just east of 
the I-65 corridor, and should clear the area into Georgia by around 
06-07z. The clouds have helped keep temperatures fairly steady in the
lower 30s, but once clearing occurs they will likely dip another 4-5
degrees into the mid to upper 20s, thanks to radiational cooling. 
However, dewpoints in the 20s will prevent temperatures from falling 
any lower than that. Otherwise, a quiet and dry night across the 
region -- meaning that folks will wake up to a clear sky and nice 
sunrise by Friday morning. 

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

An upper ridge will remain over the West Coast through much of the
short term period, with flow over the TN Valley becoming more zonal.
Skies will remain mostly clear through Saturday, as dry air filters
into the area. The coolest day will be Friday, when temps warm into
the mid to upper 50s. By Saturday, high pressure building along the
Gulf will shift winds more to the south and help temps warm into the
lower to mid 60s. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 30s
Friday night and only fall into the lower 40s Saturday night. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) 
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Zonal flow will persist through Sunday across the region, leaving
partly cloud skies and highs in the lower 60s. Moisture will increase
Sunday night as a shortwave begins to dig southward through the
Plains and inches closer to the TN Valley. Skies will become mostly
cloudy overnight and lows will generally remain in the lower 40s. A
cold front associated with the upper trough will swing through the TN
Valley late Sunday night/early Monday morning and may bring a quick
shot of light showers. Temperatures will remain well above freezing,
so not anticipating any frozen precip with this front. And even 
then, models differ on just have much moisture will be available. 
Thus, have maintained only a slight chance for light showers from 06Z
through 18Z Monday. The front will quickly exit the area by Monday 
afternoon, with high pressue building into the region and generally 
persisting through the end of the period. Temps Monday through 
Wednesday will be on the cooler side, with highs in the mid 50s and 
overnight in the upper 30s to lower 40s. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period, 
with a mostly clear sky and light winds.





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at weather.gov/huntsville.