Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
Issued by Huntsville, AL (HUN)
072 FXUS64 KHUN 210515 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1215 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .UPDATE... For 06Z TAFS. && .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 An upper level low was evident in latest WV imagery over E KY and should slowly move east overnight. A few lingering light showers were noted on radar across NE AL and S Mid TN as of 9pm. But much of this activity was weakening and moving out of the area. Based on upstream obs/radar and latest RGB imagery, think chances are dwindling on any rain/snow mix tonight. There were a few reports of light snow near Nashville but drier air to the west spreading into the area should keep any remaining chances north of the area. So, have adjusted PoPs to reflect this and only have a rain/snow mix in the higher terrain of NE AL and S Mid TN. But even for those area that will likely be a stretch. Northwesterly winds will continue to stream colder air into the region tonight. Think wind speeds stay up enough tonight to keep temps above 32 degrees and only have a few isolated spots in TN where values could hit 30 to 31 degrees. Another thing that might help to keep temps above freezing tonight is some mid-level cloud cover that will cross the area tonight. The rest of the forecast is in good shape. .SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 Generally sunny skies, but colder than normal conditions are forecast for Wednesday, or the first full day of Spring, as cold high pressure builds in from the west. High temperatures will only warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s with NW winds of 5-15 mph. Somewhat colder conditions are expected Wed night as winds become light/variable under the high as it moves across the region. Night time lows for most if not all of the area should fall below freezing. We will probably issue a Freeze Warning to cover this in a later shift, if this trend continues, with forecast lows in the upper 20s to around 30. A slightly warming trend on Thursday is forecast with highs recovering into the mid 50s to around 60. Normal highs this time of year are around 67 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018 A return southerly flow will return more lower level moisture and instability to the region. This will bring increased clouds, as well as a slight chance of rain late Thursday night. An unsettled pattern appears to be setting up again - for another weekend, as a series of lows move along a frontal boundary that will set up in a west-east manner across the eastern CONUS. Inter-model comparison between the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian were in reasonably good agreement into early next week. The models do indicate a frontal boundary draped mainly north of the area in the Saturday into Monday time frame. This placing the area in the warmer, more unstable sector warrants a mention of thunder within generally more widespread showers. The approach of a low and the front close enough made for scattered showers/storms on Sunday. Showers should continue into the first part of the next work week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018 CIGS around 2kft are lingering at KHSV and will remain there for the next few hours as an upper system lifts east away from the area. KMSL will stay VFR but a mid level cloud deck may impact the terminal in the next few hours from the west. Both terminals should be seeing clear skies by the afternoon. Winds will also be gusty today out of the northwest. They should increase quickly this morning with gusts around 30kts possible this afternoon. They will diminish with sunset Wednesday. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...Stumpf SHORT TERM...RSB LONG TERM...RSB AVIATION...LN For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.