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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Huntsville, AL (HUN)

FXUS64 KHUN 210515

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1215 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

For 06Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

An upper level low was evident in latest WV imagery over E KY and
should slowly move east overnight. A few lingering light showers were
noted on radar across NE AL and S Mid TN as of 9pm. But much of this
activity was weakening and moving out of the area. Based on upstream
obs/radar and latest RGB imagery, think chances are dwindling on any
rain/snow mix tonight. There were a few reports of light snow near
Nashville but drier air to the west spreading into the area should
keep any remaining chances north of the area. So, have adjusted PoPs
to reflect this and only have a rain/snow mix in the higher terrain
of NE AL and S Mid TN. But even for those area that will likely be a

Northwesterly winds will continue to stream colder air into the
region tonight. Think wind speeds stay up enough tonight to keep 
temps above 32 degrees and only have a few isolated spots in TN where
values could hit 30 to 31 degrees. Another thing that might help to
keep temps above freezing tonight is some mid-level cloud cover that
will cross the area tonight. The rest of the forecast is in good

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Generally sunny skies, but colder than normal conditions are forecast
for Wednesday, or the first full day of Spring, as cold high pressure 
builds in from the west. High temperatures will only warm into the 
upper 40s to lower 50s with NW winds of 5-15 mph. Somewhat colder 
conditions are expected Wed night as winds become light/variable
under the high as it moves across the region. Night time lows for
most if not all of the area should fall below freezing. We will
probably issue a Freeze Warning to cover this in a later shift, if
this trend continues, with forecast lows in the upper 20s to around
30. A slightly warming trend on Thursday is forecast with highs
recovering into the mid 50s to around 60. Normal highs this time of
year are around 67 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

A return southerly flow will return more lower level moisture and
instability to the region. This will bring increased clouds, as well
as a slight chance of rain late Thursday night. An unsettled pattern
appears to be setting up again - for another weekend, as a series of
lows move along a frontal boundary that will set up in a west-east
manner across the eastern CONUS. Inter-model comparison between the
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian were in reasonably good agreement into early next
week. The models do indicate a frontal boundary draped mainly north 
of the area in the Saturday into Monday time frame. This placing the 
area in the warmer, more unstable sector warrants a mention of 
thunder within generally more widespread showers. The approach of a 
low and the front close enough made for scattered showers/storms on 
Sunday. Showers should continue into the first part of the next work 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

CIGS around 2kft are lingering at KHSV and will remain there for the
next few hours as an upper system lifts east away from the area. KMSL
will stay VFR but a mid level cloud deck may impact the terminal in
the next few hours from the west. Both terminals should be seeing 
clear skies by the afternoon. Winds will also be gusty today out of
the northwest. They should increase quickly this morning with gusts
around 30kts possible this afternoon. They will diminish with sunset




NEAR TERM...Stumpf

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