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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Huntsville, AL (HUN)

FXUS64 KHUN 162336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
536 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

For 00Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

Temps this afternoon have warmed a bit more that initially forecast
with values sitting in the upper 50s to around 60. West/southwest
winds have helped to bring moisture back into the area with dewpoints
in the upper 30s. A surface high will settle in over the area and
winds should become light and variable overnight. Some of the hires
guidance is indicating the potential for strong radiational cooling
overnight to the point where the temps and dewpoints could fall in
concert. If this were to occur, it's possible we might see fog 
develop tonight and in some of the cooler locations patchy freezing
fog. However, confidence in this occurring is low as models had temps
only warming into the low to mid 50s. So, the warmer conditions and
little better moisture could prevent the rapid cooling that is
forecast by some of the hires models. Will keep an eye on trends
tonight and see if we need to add fog. Otherwise, temps will fall to
near freezing tonight. 

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

The surface high will move across the area on Saturday and with
continued sunny skies we are expecting temps to climb a few more
degrees. Highs Saturday afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s. We
continue to have a surface high over the area heading into Sunday and
with more southerly flow overnight lows Saturday into Sunday will be
around 40. By Sunday a trough digging into the Intermountain West
will become sheared with much of the energy shift east into the
central plains. This sheared out vorticity axis will move towards the
area Sunday afternoon and evening. Winds aloft increase out of the
W/SW and should help to bring back some moisture aloft and a gradual
increase in clouds are expected. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

As mentioned above a highly sheared trough will be approaching the
area Sunday night. Increasing clouds and a slight uptick in surface
winds will keep temps on the warmer side Monday morning with lows in
the lower 40s. Models are very impressive with the QPF as the system
approaches the area and think this is mainly a result of poor low/mid
level moisture recovery coupled with only weak lift. The highest PoPs
might end up to our NW where the forcing will be greater and lower in
our area as the system weakens. Made only minor tweaks to PoPs for
Monday morning to reflect some of the guidance coming in showing some
locations with no rain at all. There are subtle differences in the
timing of the system but think the weak front associated with it will
move in during the afternoon hours and temps should be able to warm
into the upper 50s. 

Winds switch to the N/NW behind the front and weak CAA will bring
lows back into the 30s for both Monday and Tuesday nights. Wednesday
and Thursday models continue to show varying solutions on a system
forecast to move west to east along the Gulf Coast. The latest GFS-
FV3 is the furthest north of all the guidance and brings some light
rain to the area on Thanksgiving. But this is too far out and there
remains differences in the models to introduce any precip at this
point. So, we'll continue with a dry forecast and highs in the 50s to
lower 60s and lows around 40 degrees. 


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

With a strong area of high pressure over the wrn/cntrl Gulf states,
VFR conds are xpcted thru the TAF period. There still is a low prob
of -br overnight, but confidence remains quite low for now.




NEAR TERM...Stumpf
LONG TERM...Stumpf

For more information please visit our website 
at weather.gov/huntsville.