Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
Issued by Huntsville, AL (HUN)
000 FXUS64 KHUN 162336 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 536 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018 .UPDATE... For 00Z TAFS. && .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018 Temps this afternoon have warmed a bit more that initially forecast with values sitting in the upper 50s to around 60. West/southwest winds have helped to bring moisture back into the area with dewpoints in the upper 30s. A surface high will settle in over the area and winds should become light and variable overnight. Some of the hires guidance is indicating the potential for strong radiational cooling overnight to the point where the temps and dewpoints could fall in concert. If this were to occur, it's possible we might see fog develop tonight and in some of the cooler locations patchy freezing fog. However, confidence in this occurring is low as models had temps only warming into the low to mid 50s. So, the warmer conditions and little better moisture could prevent the rapid cooling that is forecast by some of the hires models. Will keep an eye on trends tonight and see if we need to add fog. Otherwise, temps will fall to near freezing tonight. .SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018 The surface high will move across the area on Saturday and with continued sunny skies we are expecting temps to climb a few more degrees. Highs Saturday afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s. We continue to have a surface high over the area heading into Sunday and with more southerly flow overnight lows Saturday into Sunday will be around 40. By Sunday a trough digging into the Intermountain West will become sheared with much of the energy shift east into the central plains. This sheared out vorticity axis will move towards the area Sunday afternoon and evening. Winds aloft increase out of the W/SW and should help to bring back some moisture aloft and a gradual increase in clouds are expected. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018 As mentioned above a highly sheared trough will be approaching the area Sunday night. Increasing clouds and a slight uptick in surface winds will keep temps on the warmer side Monday morning with lows in the lower 40s. Models are very impressive with the QPF as the system approaches the area and think this is mainly a result of poor low/mid level moisture recovery coupled with only weak lift. The highest PoPs might end up to our NW where the forcing will be greater and lower in our area as the system weakens. Made only minor tweaks to PoPs for Monday morning to reflect some of the guidance coming in showing some locations with no rain at all. There are subtle differences in the timing of the system but think the weak front associated with it will move in during the afternoon hours and temps should be able to warm into the upper 50s. Winds switch to the N/NW behind the front and weak CAA will bring lows back into the 30s for both Monday and Tuesday nights. Wednesday and Thursday models continue to show varying solutions on a system forecast to move west to east along the Gulf Coast. The latest GFS- FV3 is the furthest north of all the guidance and brings some light rain to the area on Thanksgiving. But this is too far out and there remains differences in the models to introduce any precip at this point. So, we'll continue with a dry forecast and highs in the 50s to lower 60s and lows around 40 degrees. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 536 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018 With a strong area of high pressure over the wrn/cntrl Gulf states, VFR conds are xpcted thru the TAF period. There still is a low prob of -br overnight, but confidence remains quite low for now. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...Stumpf SHORT TERM...Stumpf LONG TERM...Stumpf AVIATION...09 For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.