Welcome to the New NWS' Forecast!
Most changes are behind the scenes, but click here for differences you might notice.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Huntsville, AL (HUN)

FXUS64 KHUN 221130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
530 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

For 12Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Surface analysis from this morning shows that the dry cold front has
shifted through the S. Middle TN/N. AL region. Northerly winds are
steadily increasing to to the 5-8kt range at the surface. Model
soundings and KHTX VWP are showing deep northerly flow through 
~10Kft behind the front, with winds 25-35 kt off the surface. Its 
safe to saw the cold air advection is underway. For the rest of the 
day, expect temps to only rebound into the upper 40s/low 50s across 
the region which would be around a 10 degree difference from 
yesterday. With strong ridging re-establishing along with a strong 
low to mid level subsidence inversion over the area, rain chances 
will be at 0 percent. 

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Little change to the overall pattern expected through Friday. 
Surface ridging will become elongated over much of the SE US by 
Thanksgiving with the ridge axis north of the area. The low-mid level
subsidence will remain in place through tomorrow night but gradually
weaken as the ridge shifts east through Friday. With plenty of dry 
air and subsidence lingering over the region, do not expect any 
chance of precip. For temperatures, expect widespread freezing 
conditions Thanksgiving morning thanks to the on going cold air 
advection, light winds, and clear skies. Temps will start to moderate
by Thanksgiving afternoon as the cold air advection begins to wane. 
A few locations mainly west of I-65 will deep below freezing Friday 
morning, but temps will be quick to rebound into the upper 50s/low 
60s across the area. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Yet another reinforcing cold front will be on the doorstep of the
cntrl TN Valley at the start of Fri night. The front will get its
surge sewd from another strong dome of high pressure building swd
across the Plains states. Prior to the onset of the frontal passage
later in the day on Sat, near seasonal temps look to be in place
across much of the region, with lows Fri night mainly in the lower
40s followed by highs climbing into the lower 60s Sat. Other than a
slight increase in cloud cover out of the WNW, little fanfare is
xpcted with the passage of the cold front Sat.

The sfc high will begin to build ewd into the TN/OH Valley regions
for the second half of the weekend period, with slightly cooler air
streaming into the area from the N. Lows Sat night look to fall 
predom into the mid/upper 30s while highs on Sun trend fairly mild,
with afternoon temps mainly in the mid 50s. After a chilly morning on
Mon, with lows falling into the lower 30s for most locations, high 
pressure will then gradually move ewd, or more into the mid Atlantic
Basin, heading into the first half of the new work week. This should
allow for a gradual warming trend, as highs trend closer to 60F Mon
afternoon while lows that night climb back to near 40F. This trend
continues into Tue, with highs climbing more into the mid 60s, while
lows Tue night remain predom in the mid 40s. A deep upper trough
pattern carving thru the Plains states will help push another cold
front close to the TN Valley area around the middle of next week. 
This frontal boundary may bring with it our next chc of rain/showers 
as well, with moisture return increasing out of the S/SW along/ahead 
of this oncoming cold front.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the 12z TAF period. Expect gusts
to increase to around 20 kt beginning around 15z and persisting 
through 20z. North winds will subside before sunrise and drop to 5 kt
or less by nightfall. 




NEAR TERM...Barron

For more information please visit our website 
at weather.gov/huntsville.